{"id":87862,"date":"2026-04-10T21:43:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T19:43:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=87862"},"modified":"2026-05-06T11:44:23","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T09:44:23","slug":"populara-bankaktien-en-vattendelare-pa-borsen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/populara-bankaktien-en-vattendelare-pa-borsen\/","title":{"rendered":"Popul\u00e4ra bankaktien \u2013 en vattendelare p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

B\u00f6rsen har piggnat till ordentligt den senaste veckan efter ett mer positivt nyhetsfl\u00f6de kring utvecklingen i Mellan\u00f6stern. Vi ser nu tydligt hur cykliska aktier \u00e5terh\u00e4mtat sig efter en tuff m\u00e5nad i ryggen (l\u00e4s fler kommentarer kring den positiva b\u00f6rsutvecklingen h\u00e4r<\/a>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som bekant sammanst\u00e4ller vi p\u00e5 Nordnet vid varje m\u00e5nadsskifte statistik \u00f6ver de mest k\u00f6pta och s\u00e5lda aktierna och fonderna bland v\u00e5ra kunder. Det \u00e4r statistik som alltid ger en intressant fingervisning om r\u00e5dande sentiment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6g aktivitet i energisektorn \u2013 men bank lockar mest<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r mars m\u00e5nad summerades stack aktiviteten inom energisektorn ut, vilket inte \u00e4r f\u00f6rv\u00e5nande givet eskaleringen i Mellan\u00f6stern och de kraftiga sv\u00e4ngningarna i oljepriset. Mer i\u00f6gonfallande var dock att banksektorn var extremt het p\u00e5 k\u00f6psidan. Topptrion \u00f6ver de mest k\u00f6pta aktierna utgjordes av Handelsbanken<\/strong>, Swedbank<\/strong> ihop med Investor<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Varf\u00f6r \u00e4r bankerna s\u00e5 popul\u00e4ra?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r tydligt att bankerna lockat under denna st\u00f6kiga b\u00f6rsperiod. Robusta aff\u00e4rsmodeller, urstarka balansr\u00e4kningar och h\u00f6ga utdelningar (som nu har avskiljts) v\u00e4ger sannolikt tungt f\u00f6r investerarna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Banker p\u00e5verkas av konjunkturens v\u00e4lm\u00e5ende men de besitter ocks\u00e5 defensiva egenskaper. Stigande energipriser \u00e4r till exempel inte enbart av ondo f\u00f6r sektorn, d\u00e5 det i f\u00f6rl\u00e4ngningen kan leda till h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor \u2013 vilket i sin tur ger en positiv effekt p\u00e5 bankernas r\u00e4ntenetton. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Handelsbanken<\/strong> och Swedbank<\/strong> \u00e4r dessutom de banker d\u00e4r r\u00e4ntenettot utg\u00f6r den absolut st\u00f6rsta delen av intj\u00e4ningen relativt \u00f6vriga i sektorn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Handelsbanken \u00e4r favoriten<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Varf\u00f6r har d\u00e5 just Handelsbanken blivit sektorfavoriten bland spararna? <\/strong>Att banken erbjuder den h\u00f6gsta direktavkastningen i kombination med den l\u00e4gsta v\u00e4rderingen (m\u00e4tt i price-to-book<\/em>) \u00e4r troligtvis parametrar som uppskattas, vilket grafen nedan illustrerar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Negativa analytiker<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tittar vi d\u00e4remot p\u00e5 analytikerk\u00e5ren kan vi konstatera att Handelsbanken inte direkt \u00e4r n\u00e5gon \u201ddarling\u201d.<\/strong> Aktien har i skrivande stund endast en enstaka k\u00f6prekommendation, mot 8 beh\u00e5ll- och 10 s\u00e4ljrekommendationer. Det kan j\u00e4mf\u00f6ras med exempelvis Nordea, som har fler k\u00f6prekommendationer \u00e4n beh\u00e5ll- och s\u00e4ljr\u00e5d tillsammans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fr\u00e5getecken fram\u00e5t<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Denna negativa h\u00e5llning f\u00e5r nog prim\u00e4rt tolkas som en konsekvens av att banken \u00e4r den minst l\u00f6nsamma m\u00e4tt i avkastning p\u00e5 eget kapital (ROE) och f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas f\u00f6rbli s\u00e5 \u00e4ven kommande \u00e5r. Handelsbanken ligger kring 12 % i ROE medan \u00f6vriga banker ligger kring 14-15 %. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Satsningen i Storbritannien forts\u00e4tter ocks\u00e5 att vara en vattendelare, och utl\u00e5ningstillv\u00e4xten har inte varit mycket att skriva hem om.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tittar vi p\u00e5 kursgrafen ser vi ocks\u00e5 att Handelsbanken har halkat efter; nedan graf visar bankernas totalavkastning det senaste \u00e5ret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Risk kontra potentiell avkastning<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Handelsbanken har en erk\u00e4nd strategi att prioritera l\u00e5g risk \u2013 vissa skulle h\u00e4vda f\u00f6r<\/em> l\u00e5g risk. Denna riskaversion inneb\u00e4r f\u00f6rvisso sektorns l\u00e4gsta kreditf\u00f6rluster, begr\u00e4nsad vinstvolatilitet och en bevisad motst\u00e5ndskraft i s\u00e4mre tider. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samtidigt riskerar tillv\u00e4xt och l\u00f6nsamhet att h\u00e4mmas, s\u00e4rskilt n\u00e4r konjunkturen v\u00e4l v\u00e4xlar upp.<\/strong> Det \u00e4r dessa faktorer som marknaden f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker v\u00e4ga mot varandra. Vi f\u00e5r se hur sektorn i allm\u00e4nhet, och Handelsbanken i synnerhet, utvecklas fram\u00f6ver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uppv\u00e4rdering befogad?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Sammanfattningsvis kan vi konstatera att banker varit popul\u00e4ra att \u00e4ga och att aktierna har ett starkt fjol\u00e5r i ryggen<\/strong>. Kan trenden norrut forts\u00e4tta? Vissa h\u00e4vdar att v\u00e4rderingarna inte l\u00e4ngre \u00e4r attraktiva, men \u00e4ven om de kommit upp \u00e4r de heller inte p\u00e5 direkt alarmerande niv\u00e5er.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ordentlig marginalresa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Med styrr\u00e4ntor som l\u00e4mnat minusterritoriet bakom sig \u00e4r det betydligt l\u00e4ttare f\u00f6r bankerna att bibeh\u00e5lla goda marginaler.<\/strong> Borde inte marknaden d\u00e5 rimligen kunna acceptera v\u00e4rderingar som \u00f6verstiger historiska snitt \u2013 s\u00e4rskilt n\u00e4r nollr\u00e4ntan k\u00e4nns avl\u00e4gsen och l\u00f6nsamhetsf\u00f6rb\u00e4ttringarna ser ut att bita sig kvar? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Och med en b\u00e4ttre konjunktur i ant\u00e5gande (vilket vi alltj\u00e4mt har sk\u00e4l att tro?) s\u00e5 minskar dessutom oron f\u00f6r kreditf\u00f6rluster och med det ocks\u00e5 rimligen riskpremien i sektorn. Undertecknad tog Nordea som exempel nedan, liknande utveckling har skett i samtliga storbanker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Inga tillv\u00e4xtraketer direkt<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Efter en tids utveckling i sidled \u00e5terst\u00e5r det att se om bankerna kan b\u00f6rja \u00f6verprestera b\u00f6rsen igen<\/strong> eller om andra sektorer \u2013 som konsument och verkstad \u2013 g\u00e5r starkare i ett positivt konjunkturscenario (banker \u00e4r ju s\u00e4llan n\u00e5gra tillv\u00e4xtraketer). Samtidigt har sektorer som h\u00e4lsov\u00e5rd och telekom passande kvaliteter i ett s\u00e4mre makroklimat. Kanske landar bankerna helt enkelt lite grann i mitten just nu, oavsett den underliggande ekonomiska utvecklingen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inf\u00f6r rapportperioden<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sist men inte minst drar rapportperioden snart ig\u00e5ng, och banker tenderar att s\u00e4llan g\u00f6ra marknaden besviken. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nedanst\u00e5ende graf illustrerar detta tydligt (h\u00e4r med Swedbank som exempel, men bilden \u00e4r liknande f\u00f6r samtliga storbanker). Grafen m\u00e4ter faktiskt vinstutfall mot f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntansbilden inf\u00f6r rapport d\u00e4r gr\u00f6na staplar inneb\u00e4r att man slog f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna, och r\u00f6da det omv\u00e4nda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Den som lever f\u00e5r se…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tack f\u00f6r att du tog dig tid! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Calle<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

B\u00f6rsen har piggnat till ordentligt den senaste veckan efter ett mer positivt nyhetsfl\u00f6de kring utvecklingen i Mellan\u00f6stern. Vi ser nu tydligt hur cykliska aktier \u00e5terh\u00e4mtat sig efter en tuff m\u00e5nad i ryggen (l\u00e4s fler kommentarer kring den positiva b\u00f6rsutvecklingen h\u00e4r). Som bekant sammanst\u00e4ller vi p\u00e5 Nordnet vid varje m\u00e5nadsskifte statistik \u00f6ver de mest k\u00f6pta och […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68652,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4050],"tags":[4825],"class_list":["post-87862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investeringsstrategi","tag-start"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/calle3-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/calle3-150x54.jpg 150w, 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