{"id":87829,"date":"2026-04-08T10:39:26","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T08:39:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=87829"},"modified":"2026-04-09T10:53:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T08:53:01","slug":"borsyra-efter-vapenvila-var-sparekonom-kommenterar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/borsyra-efter-vapenvila-var-sparekonom-kommenterar\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00f6rsyra efter vapenvila – v\u00e5r sparekonom kommenterar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Calle, b\u00f6rsen stiger hela 4 % idag onsdag efter nyheten om vapenvila i Mellan\u00f6stern och d\u00e4r samtidigt Hormuzsundet \u00e5ter ska \u00f6ppna. \u00c4r uppg\u00e5ngen rimlig?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Ja, det tycker jag \u00e4nd\u00e5. Det vi ser nu \u00e4r att riskviljan hos investerare \u00e5terv\u00e4nder i takt med att krigspremien minskar p\u00e5 de finansiella marknaderna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Han forts\u00e4tter:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– \u00c4ven om detta \u00e4r ett scenario som investerare redan f\u00f6rsiktigt b\u00f6rjat prisa in sedan b\u00f6rsbotten den 23 mars, s\u00e5 \u00e4r det ofr\u00e5nkomligen s\u00e5 att det finns en hel del pengar som letat sig ut ur aktiemarknaden under krisen. Det \u00e5terst\u00e5r att om det medf\u00f6r \u00f6kade infl\u00f6den till aktiemarknaden eller om investerare fortsatt tycker att riskerna f\u00f6r b\u00f6rsen och ekonomin \u00e4r f\u00f6rh\u00f6jda j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med f\u00f6r en dryg m\u00e5nad sen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e4dslan har varit stor f\u00f6r stigande inflation och med det snabbt h\u00f6jda r\u00e4ntor fr\u00e5n centralbanksh\u00e5ll. F\u00f6rsvinner den r\u00e4dslan nu?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Jo, men det tror jag. Inte helt, det finns fortsatt fr\u00e5getecken och orosmoln som inte skingrats och som l\u00e4r h\u00e4nga kvar ett tag. Men att oljan faller kraftigt idag tar lite grann udden av den stora oro som funnits kring inflationen och ger centralbankerna det andrum de beh\u00f6ver f\u00f6r att inte k\u00e4nna sig tvingade att h\u00f6ja r\u00e4ntan i f\u00f6rsta taget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Nu \u00f6kar sannolikheten att Riksbanken och \u00f6vriga centralbanker kan \u201cse igenom\u201d tillf\u00e4lligt h\u00f6gre inflation i sp\u00e5ren av den oljerelaterade utbudschock som drabbat v\u00e4rlden kortsiktigt. Den underliggande inflationen \u00e4r fortsatt l\u00e5g, vi fick till exempel svensk statistik ig\u00e5r som p\u00e5visade just detta, och risken f\u00f6r en jobbig inflationsspiral minskar i och med nattens positiva nyhetsfl\u00f6de.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kan vi helt sl\u00e4ppa konflikten i Mellan\u00f6stern nu?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Nej, det \u00e4r f\u00f6r tidigt skulle jag s\u00e4ga. Det \u00e4r viktigt att p\u00e5peka att v\u00e4gen till en permanent l\u00f6sning i konflikten sannolikt \u00e4r sn\u00e5rig och f\u00f6rknippad med en stor dos os\u00e4kerhet alltj\u00e4mt. Det \u00e4r med andra ord lite f\u00f6r tidigt att helt ta bort den d\u00e4r krigspremien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Att \u00e5terst\u00e4lla lokal energiinfrastruktur kommer ta tid. \u00c5 andra sidan, det finns gemensamma ekonomiska intressena hos inblandade parter med en \u00e5terg\u00e5ng till n\u00e5gon form av normall\u00e4ge. Det i sig \u00e4r positivt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 vilket s\u00e4tt f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrar nattens nyhet b\u00f6rsbilden fram\u00e5t?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Sammantaget \u00e4r det viktigaste h\u00e4r att oron f\u00f6r en utdragen global energichock minskar vilket i sin tur skapar b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar f\u00f6r bolagen att n\u00e5 de r\u00e4tt h\u00f6gt st\u00e4llda f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar som marknaden har p\u00e5 vinsttillv\u00e4xten fram\u00e5t. Mindre press p\u00e5 kostnadssidan ihop med en konjunktur\u00e5terh\u00e4mtning som f\u00f6rhoppningsvis inte kommit av sig p\u00e5 grund av den senaste m\u00e5naden g\u00f6r att m\u00f6jligheterna f\u00f6r tillv\u00e4xt f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttras. Det \u00e4r med andra ord, s\u00e5klart, l\u00e4ttare att vara b\u00f6rsoptimist idag \u00e4n ig\u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilka \u00e4r de st\u00f6rsta b\u00f6rsvinnarna?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cykliska aktier b\u00f6r stiga mest p\u00e5 detta, s\u00e5som verkstadsaktier och mer konsumentrelaterade bolag. \u00c4ven tidigare h\u00e5rt pressade aktier inom s\u00e4llank\u00f6p b\u00f6r f\u00e5 en ordentlig studs. F\u00f6ga f\u00f6rv\u00e5nande hittar vi oljesektorn i botten idag. Telekom \u00e4r en sektor som handlats med en tydlig “os\u00e4kerhetspremie” under den senaste m\u00e5naden och st\u00e5tt emot v\u00e4l men nu l\u00e4r vi nog se en s\u00e5 kallad sektorrotation bort fr\u00e5n sektorn in i mer cykliska aktier. Med brasklappen, det finns n\u00e5gra s\u00e5dana just nu, att vi inte ser en eskalering av kriget \u00e5nyo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tankar kring den stundande rapportperioden?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Att marknaden s\u00e5klart kommer leta efter ledtr\u00e5dar kring effekter av den senaste tidens snabbt stigande energi- och fraktkostnader. P\u00e5verkan p\u00e5 efterfr\u00e5gan. M\u00f6jligheten att f\u00f6rsvara marginaler. Tecken p\u00e5 motst\u00e5ndskraft i en fortsatt st\u00f6kig omv\u00e4rld. Fram\u00e5tblickande prognoser och kommentarer. D\u00e4r kommer marknadens fokus ligga.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Calle, b\u00f6rsen stiger hela 4 % idag onsdag efter nyheten om vapenvila i Mellan\u00f6stern och d\u00e4r samtidigt Hormuzsundet \u00e5ter ska \u00f6ppna. \u00c4r uppg\u00e5ngen rimlig? – Ja, det tycker jag \u00e4nd\u00e5. Det vi ser nu \u00e4r att riskviljan hos investerare \u00e5terv\u00e4nder i takt med att krigspremien minskar p\u00e5 de finansiella marknaderna. Han forts\u00e4tter: – \u00c4ven om […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68652,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4052],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analys"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/calle_blogg-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/calle_blogg-150x54.jpg 150w, https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/calle_blogg-620x222.jpg 620w, 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