{"id":87737,"date":"2026-03-29T22:16:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-29T20:16:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=87737"},"modified":"2026-03-29T22:16:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-29T20:16:33","slug":"dags-for-vinstvarningssasong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/dags-for-vinstvarningssasong\/","title":{"rendered":"Dags f\u00f6r vinstvarningss\u00e4song"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I f\u00f6rra veckans blogginl\u00e4gg fokuserade undertecknad p\u00e5 den r\u00e5dande utdelningss\u00e4songen. Men med storbanker som nu skilt av sina utdelningar (dragpl\u00e5stret f\u00f6r utdelningsj\u00e4garna) s\u00e5 kanske det \u00e4r l\u00e4ge att fokusera p\u00e5 n\u00e4sta s\u00e4song, n\u00e4mligen den f\u00f6r vinstvarningar.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men f\u00f6rst n\u00e5gra tankar fr\u00e5n veckan som g\u00e5tt d\u00e4r vi kan konstatera att nervosititen och os\u00e4kerheten \u00e4r stor bland investerare just nu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Popul\u00e4ra grafer som illustrerar detta \u00e4r till exempel Fear and Greed Index<\/strong> (som p\u00e5visar extremr\u00e4dsla hos investerare just nu) och volatilitetsindex<\/strong> (VIX) som \u00e4r p\u00e5 den h\u00f6gsta niv\u00e5n sedan tulloron f\u00f6r ett \u00e5r sedan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kortlivad b\u00f6rsuppg\u00e5ng<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven om vi fick en t\u00e4mligen kraftfull uppstuds p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen i b\u00f6rjan p\u00e5 f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende vecka s\u00e5 blev det aldrig n\u00e5gon riktig \u00f6vertygelse i uppg\u00e5ngen och vi s\u00e5g ocks\u00e5 hur b\u00f6rsen v\u00e4nde ned igen n\u00e4r f\u00f6rhoppningarna om en nedtrappning i Mellan\u00f6sternkonflikten ebbade ut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Utveckling p\u00e5 OMXS30 i \u00e5r, r\u00f6dmarkerat \u00e4r den senaste b\u00f6rsveckan.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oljepriset pr\u00e4glar hum\u00f6ret<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Efter en m\u00e5nads konflikt med Iran kvarst\u00e5r de geopolitiska riskerna och fortsatta st\u00f6rningar i oljefl\u00f6det och andra viktiga leveranskedjor utg\u00f6r ofr\u00e5nkomligen ett hot mot den globala inflationsutvecklingen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Oljepriset (vit linje) och dollarindex (turkos linje) under mars m\u00e5nad.<\/em> Dollarn har blivit en trygg hamn f\u00f6r investerare igen. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar n\u00e4sta?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r ofr\u00e5nkomligen s\u00e5 att den fundamentala bilden kring v\u00e4rldskonjunkturen har f\u00f6rs\u00e4mrats f\u00f6r 2026 men fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r s\u00e5klart hur mycket. Kommer situationen hinna dra ig\u00e5ng en inflationsspiral, en himla massa r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar p\u00e5 det och dessutom en efterfr\u00e5gan som kraftigt p\u00e5verkas?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad g\u00e4ller just styrr\u00e4ntor s\u00e5 har vi ju befunnit oss i en r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningscykel ett tag och v\u00e4rldskonjunkturen, som alltj\u00e4mt trevar, hade beh\u00f6vt en fortsatt r\u00e4ntemedvind h\u00e4r, inte det motsatta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hur ska man som privatinvesterare agera?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Just nu verkar finansiella marknader prisa in ett r\u00e4tt dystert scenario. \u00d6verdrivet? Kanske, men sannolikheten f\u00f6r ett stagflationsscenario, b\u00f6rsens mardr\u00f6m, h\u00e4nger fortfarande \u00f6ver investerarhum\u00f6ret och d\u00e4mpar riskviljan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategier f\u00f6r oss investerare? Man kanske kan tratta ner dem till tre huvudalternativ:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Bibeh\u00e5llen riskexponering (sitta still i b\u00e5ten)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. \u00d6ka kassan i portf\u00f6ljen<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Aktiv hedging (skydda portf\u00f6ljen)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Varje val inneb\u00e4r s\u00e5klart tydliga avv\u00e4gningar mellan risker och m\u00f6jlig alternativkostnad. Historiskt sett har en exponering mot olja och energirelaterade tillg\u00e5ngar f\u00f6ga f\u00f6rv\u00e5nande fungerat som en effektiv hedge under oljedrivna b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ngar. Titta p\u00e5 Oslob\u00f6rsen, som med sin tunga energivikt \u00e4r upp hela 17 %<\/strong> hittills i \u00e5r trots den globala oron.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Detta till en h\u00f6g negativ beta mot aktier. Med andra ord, n\u00e4r stigande oljepriser agerar s\u00e4nke f\u00f6r b\u00f6rsen i stort, r\u00f6r sig energitillg\u00e5ngarna i motsatt riktning och fungerar d\u00e4rmed som en v\u00e4lbeh\u00f6vlig krockkudde i portf\u00f6ljen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ligger det vinstvarningar i korten?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vi n\u00e4rmar oss nu slutet av mars och d\u00e4rmed st\u00e4ngningen av \u00e5rets f\u00f6rsta kvartal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Givet nul\u00e4get riskerar bolagens r\u00e4kenskaper att pr\u00e4glas negativt och stundande rapports\u00e4song ska bli v\u00e4ldigt intressant p\u00e5 den punkten. <\/strong>Och hur m\u00e5nga negativa \u00f6verraskningar ska vi f\u00e5 INNAN rapports\u00e4songen drar ig\u00e5ng? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vinstvarningss\u00e4songen infaller i regel n\u00e5gra veckor f\u00f6re den officiella rapports\u00e4songen\u00a0varje kvartal. <\/strong>Det \u00e4r d\u00e5 bolagen har sammanst\u00e4llt sina prelimin\u00e4ra siffror och inser att resultatet avviker kraftigt fr\u00e5n marknadens f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har redan sett Boliden och Yubico vinstvarna (ingen av dem direkt h\u00e4nf\u00f6rligt till dagens situation i Mellan\u00f6stern visserligen), vilka st\u00e5r n\u00e4st p\u00e5 tur?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kan vi utl\u00e4sa n\u00e5gonting fr\u00e5n f\u00f6rra veckans makrodata?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rra veckans globala PMI-data visar till exempel att kriget b\u00f6rjar s\u00e4tta avtryck i f\u00f6rl\u00e4ngda leveranstider och stigande ink\u00f6pspriser, men \u00e4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge begr\u00e4nsade uppg\u00e5ngar i priser till kund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samtidigt noteras en mer deppig europeisk tj\u00e4nstesektor \u00e4n tidigare<\/strong> samtidigt som konsumentf\u00f6rtroendet f\u00f6ll ordentligt i regionen. F\u00f6rsiktiga konsumenter g\u00f6r att bolag kanske inte kan\/v\u00e5gar h\u00f6ja priserna f\u00f6r att kompensera f\u00f6r sina \u00f6kade kostnader. Skapar detta en farlig cocktail f\u00f6r bolag med stor exponering mot europeiska konsumenter? Till exempel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den som lever f\u00e5r se. Ny vecka, nya m\u00f6jligheter…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tack f\u00f6r att du tog dig tid!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Calle<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I f\u00f6rra veckans blogginl\u00e4gg fokuserade undertecknad p\u00e5 den r\u00e5dande utdelningss\u00e4songen. Men med storbanker som nu skilt av sina utdelningar (dragpl\u00e5stret f\u00f6r utdelningsj\u00e4garna) s\u00e5 kanske det \u00e4r l\u00e4ge att fokusera p\u00e5 n\u00e4sta s\u00e4song, n\u00e4mligen den f\u00f6r vinstvarningar. Men f\u00f6rst n\u00e5gra tankar fr\u00e5n veckan som g\u00e5tt d\u00e4r vi kan konstatera att nervosititen och os\u00e4kerheten \u00e4r stor bland […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68652,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investeringsstrategi"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Calle.4-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Calle.4-150x54.jpg 150w, https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Calle.4-620x222.jpg 620w, 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