Kriget i Mellan\u00f6stern s\u00e4tter press p\u00e5 v\u00e4rldens centralbanker, d\u00e4r det inte \u00e4r givet med varken h\u00f6jningar eller s\u00e4nkningar, tills vidare h\u00e5ller s\u00e5v\u00e4l Fed, ECB och Riksbanken r\u00e4ntorna of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade i v\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 tydligare signaler i ekonomin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00e4r oljepriset stigit kraftigt p\u00e5 kort tid befaras att inflationen kan komma att f\u00e5 ett st\u00f6rre genomslag i ekonomin, inte bara i energipriserna. Risken \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 att det kan d\u00e4mpa tillv\u00e4xten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r tidigare f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar om r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar lutar det nu ist\u00e4llet snarare \u00e5t h\u00f6jningar f\u00f6r att h\u00e5lla tillbaka pris\u00f6kningarna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ECB:s prognos vid senaste r\u00e4ntebeskedet \u00e4r en inflation p\u00e5 2,6 procent i \u00e5r. I ett mer negativt scenario varnar de f\u00f6r att den kan stiga till 6,3 procent under f\u00f6rsta kvartalet 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00e5 inget avg\u00f6rande i kriget har skett och avbrotten i olje- och gasleveranser kan f\u00e5 l\u00e5nga efterverkningar, befarar investerare att inflationen kan bita sig fast, vilket i sin tur visar sig i att de l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntorna, b\u00e5de i USA och Tyskland har varit i stigande trend den senaste m\u00e5naden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ECB l\u00e4mnade styrr\u00e4ntan of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrad p\u00e5 2,00 procent senast. Marknaden har g\u00e5tt fr\u00e5n att r\u00e4kna med s\u00e4nkningar till att i st\u00e4llet prisa in h\u00f6jningar. Flera akt\u00f6rer ser nu tv\u00e5 till tre h\u00f6jningar i \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ECB-chefen Christine Lagarde betonar att banken inte t\u00e4nker sitta p\u00e5 h\u00e4nderna utan \u00e4r redo att agera vid behov. Flera ledam\u00f6ter \u00f6ppnar f\u00f6r h\u00f6jningar av r\u00e4ntan om inflationsutsikterna f\u00f6rs\u00e4mras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I USA ligger r\u00e4ntel\u00e4get lite h\u00f6gre, men of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrat i intervallet 3,5\u20133,75 procent. \u00c4ven h\u00e4r har bilden av kommande s\u00e4nkningar blivit mer os\u00e4ker i takt med att inflationsriskerna \u00f6kat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fed-guvern\u00f6ren Michael Barr s\u00e4ger att r\u00e4ntan kan beh\u00f6va ligga kvar p\u00e5 nuvarande niv\u00e5 en tid utifr\u00e5n fortsatt h\u00f6g inflation och Austan Goolsbee betonar att de m\u00e5ste k\u00e4nna sig trygga med att USA \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g tillbaka mot 2 procents inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Marknaden prisar nu i princip inte in n\u00e5gra s\u00e4nkningar i n\u00e4rtid och ser \u00e4ven en viss sannolikhet f\u00f6r h\u00f6jning, vilket speglar en tydlig omv\u00e4rdering av inflationsutsikterna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vi g\u00e5r \u00f6ver till den svenska marknaden. H\u00e4r ligger Riksbankens styrr\u00e4nta p\u00e5 1,75 procent. Direktionen var enig i beslutet att inte r\u00f6ra r\u00e4ntan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vice riksbankschef Anna Seim \u00e4r till exempel “betydligt mer oroad f\u00f6r att inflationen ska bli f\u00f6r h\u00f6g \u00e4n att den ska bli f\u00f6r l\u00e5g.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Samtidigt betonar hon att nuvarande r\u00e4nta ger utrymme att avvakta mer information. Flera ledam\u00f6ter pekar p\u00e5 sv\u00e5righeten att agera r\u00e4tt i ett l\u00e4ge med stor os\u00e4kerhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Danske Bank skriver i en analys att det \u00e4r en sv\u00e5r balans f\u00f6r v\u00e4rldens centralbanker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201dSom investerare b\u00f6r man st\u00e4lla in sig p\u00e5 att det kan vara volatilt i b\u00e5de aktier, r\u00e4ntor och valutor den n\u00e4rmaste tiden\u201d, skriver banken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Samtidigt kan utvecklingen snabbt v\u00e4nda om det kommer mer positiva signaler i det geopolitiska l\u00e4get. Banken r\u00e4knar fortsatt med tv\u00e5 r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar i USA senare i \u00e5r, men f\u00f6rst n\u00e4r l\u00e4get stabiliseras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade r\u00e4ntef\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna syns tydligt i de l\u00e5nga marknadsr\u00e4ntorna – n\u00e4r inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna stiger kr\u00e4ver allts\u00e5 investerare h\u00f6gre avkastning. Den amerikanska tio\u00e5rsr\u00e4ntan har stigit till omkring 4,3-4,4 procent den senaste tiden, medan den tyska tio\u00e5rsr\u00e4ntan handlas kring 3,0 procent, en niv\u00e5 som inte har setts sedan 2011.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kriget i Mellan\u00f6stern s\u00e4tter press p\u00e5 v\u00e4rldens centralbanker, d\u00e4r det inte \u00e4r givet med varken h\u00f6jningar eller s\u00e4nkningar, tills vidare h\u00e5ller s\u00e5v\u00e4l Fed, ECB och Riksbanken r\u00e4ntorna of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade i v\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 tydligare signaler i ekonomin. N\u00e4r oljepriset stigit kraftigt p\u00e5 kort tid befaras att inflationen kan komma att f\u00e5 ett st\u00f6rre genomslag i ekonomin, inte 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