{"id":87512,"date":"2026-03-09T07:33:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T06:33:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=87512"},"modified":"2026-03-12T15:59:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T14:59:44","slug":"marknadsoro-och-stokig-omvarld-sa-kan-du-navigera","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/marknadsoro-och-stokig-omvarld-sa-kan-du-navigera\/","title":{"rendered":"Marknadsoro och st\u00f6kig omv\u00e4rld \u2013 s\u00e5 kan du navigera"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Den senaste tidens h\u00e4ndelseutveckling i Mellan\u00f6stern har \u00f6kat den geopolitiska os\u00e4kerheten i v\u00e4rlden. Utvecklingen i regionen leder till en p\u00e5taglig turbulens p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen och de finansiella marknaderna i stort.Kan detta rubba den positiva bild som marknaden hade kring ekonomin och b\u00f6rsen s\u00e5 sent som f\u00f6r en dryg vecka sedan? Hur ska man som privatsparare t\u00e4nka?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00f6rsr\u00f6relser under veckan<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vi kan b\u00f6rja med att konstatera att v\u00e4rldens b\u00f6rser har skakat till ordentligt under veckan som g\u00e5tt. Amerikanska b\u00f6rser har h\u00e5llit emot relativt v\u00e4l medan till exempel oljeberoende tillv\u00e4xtmarknader samt den tidigare s\u00e5 heta och sedermera h\u00f6gt v\u00e4rderade Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen f\u00e5tt ge tillbaka en stor del av \u00e5rets initiala b\u00f6rsuppg\u00e5ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Litet utrymme f\u00f6r d\u00e5liga nyheter<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Om vi stannar lite vid Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen (OMXS30) s\u00e5 hade vi innan f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende vecka sett en v\u00e4ldigt stark start p\u00e5 \u00e5ret. Verkstadsaktier med gruvrelaterade aktier i spetsen, s\u00e5som Boliden och Sandvik, hade agerat draglok. V\u00e4rderingen hade kommit upp avsev\u00e4rt. Vi befann oss faktiskt 20 % \u00f6ver det 10-\u00e5riga historiska snittet och v\u00e4rderingsniv\u00e5er vi inte hade sett p\u00e5 \u00f6ver 20 \u00e5r bortr\u00e4knat de p\u00e5 m\u00e5nga s\u00e4tt speciella pandemi\u00e5ren<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Den h\u00f6ga v\u00e4rderingen signalerade en marknad som tydligt bettade p\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre konjunktur och stark vinsttillv\u00e4xt fram\u00e5t, ihop med ett r\u00e4nteklimat som skulle forts\u00e4tta att f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttras. N\u00e4r v\u00e4rderingen \u00e4r h\u00f6g, n\u00e4r optimismen \u00e4r p\u00e5 topp, n\u00e4r aktieexponeringen generellt \u00e4r v\u00e4ldigt h\u00f6g, ja d\u00e5 ska vi \u00e4ven b\u00e4ra med oss att utrymmet f\u00f6r negativa \u00f6verraskningar ocks\u00e5 blir ganska litet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hur mycket kan b\u00f6rsen falla?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det mest sannolika utfallet vid en begr\u00e4nsad konflikt \u00e4r en mindre b\u00f6rskorrektion (nedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 mellan 5-10 %), men ju l\u00e4ngre blockaden i Hormuzsundet best\u00e5r, desto st\u00f6rre \u00e4r risken f\u00f6r ett djupare fall \u00e4n de dryga 5 % vi sett hittills. Historiskt brukar geopolitisk oro skapa bra k\u00f6ptillf\u00e4llen, och s\u00e5 \u00e4r det nog \u00e4ven denna g\u00e5ng, men det kan vara v\u00e4rt att b\u00e4ra med sig att nedg\u00e5ngarna tenderar att bli mer l\u00e5ngdragna n\u00e4r energipriserna p\u00e5 allvar drabbas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os\u00e4ker p\u00e5verkan p\u00e5 ekonomin<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ut\u00f6ver den omedelbara os\u00e4kerheten \u00e4r det avg\u00f6rande hur konflikten p\u00e5verkar utsikterna f\u00f6r inflation, r\u00e4ntor och sedermera konjunktur och bolagsvinster. Vi kan konstatera att det st\u00e4ngda Hormuzsundet inte bara sl\u00e5r mot oljepriset; \u00e4ven gas- och fraktpriser har stigit snabbt, samtidigt som utbudet p\u00e5 viktiga insatsvaror som svavel och ammoniak f\u00f6rs\u00e4mrats kraftigt. V\u00e4rlden drabbas h\u00e4r av en klassisk negativ utbudschock som riskerar att h\u00e4mma den globala konjunkturuppg\u00e5ngen som s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga hoppats p\u00e5 och \u00e4ven positionerat sig f\u00f6r.Nedan ser vi oljeprisets kraftiga r\u00f6relser p\u00e5 kort tid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eftersom hela v\u00e4rlden \u00e4r ekonomiska f\u00f6rlorare p\u00e5 en blockad av sundet, inklusive Iran sj\u00e4lva, kan vi r\u00e4kna med att det jobbas febrilt p\u00e5 flera h\u00e5ll f\u00f6r en nedtrappning. Hur en s\u00e5dan l\u00f6sning ser ut \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se, men de ekonomiska incitamenten saknas sannerligen inte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e5ll koll p\u00e5 inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det finns en del historiska samband som marknaden h\u00e5ller lite extra koll p\u00e5 just nu. Bland annat finns det en tydlig korrelation med stigande oljepris och stigande inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar. Och stiger inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna, ja d\u00e5 brukar det ocks\u00e5 medf\u00f6ra stigande r\u00e4ntor som i sin tur riskerar att agera tillv\u00e4xth\u00e4mmande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Missa inte uppg\u00e5ngsdagarna<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven om b\u00f6rsfallen och den h\u00f6ga os\u00e4kerheten kan f\u00e5 oss att vilja s\u00e4lja v\u00e5ra aktier \u00e4r det viktigt att komma ih\u00e5g att det \u00e4r f\u00f6r\u00f6dande f\u00f6r aktieportf\u00f6ljen att missa de st\u00f6rsta uppg\u00e5ngsdagarna p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen. N\u00e4r brukar d\u00e5 dessa dagar infalla? Svaret \u00e4r att de ofta kommer t\u00e4tt inp\u00e5 st\u00f6rre nedg\u00e5ngar, och dessa enstaka uppg\u00e5ngsdagar har en t\u00e4mligen avg\u00f6rande betydelse f\u00f6r avkastningen \u00f6ver tid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6lj de klassiska r\u00e5den<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Att f\u00f6lja de klassiska r\u00e5den som m\u00e5nadssparande, sprida riskerna och inte ha pengar p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen som kan beh\u00f6vas de n\u00e4rmaste \u00e5ren, g\u00f6r det l\u00e4ttare att inte bli alltf\u00f6r k\u00e4nslostyrd och agera irrationellt n\u00e4r b\u00f6rsen surnar till. Den mer aktiva spararen kan s\u00e5klart v\u00e4lja att ha lite mer kassa i portf\u00f6ljen fr\u00e5n tid till annan f\u00f6r att skapa sig man\u00f6verutrymme just i s\u00e5dana h\u00e4r situationer. Att ha lite likvider \u00f6ver f\u00f6r att kunna k\u00f6pa den d\u00e4r aktien som man tycker f\u00e5tt f\u00f6r mycket stryk under nedg\u00e5ngen. Eller f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka skydda portf\u00f6ljen p\u00e5 olika s\u00e4tt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu ska inte detta blogginl\u00e4gg bli l\u00e5ng som en roman (den \u00e4r p\u00e5 god v\u00e4g k\u00e4nner undertecknad), investeringsstilar och investeringsstrategier f\u00e5r vi s\u00e4kert all anledning att \u00e5terkomma till vid ett senare tillf\u00e4lle. Men det gemensamma r\u00e5det till s\u00e5v\u00e4l aktiva som mer passiva investerare \u00e4r att f\u00f6lja de d\u00e4r klassiska r\u00e5den, de \u00e4r applicerbara f\u00f6r alla som sparar p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slutligen bara, ett r\u00e4tt enkelt och effektivt s\u00e4tt att hantera b\u00f6rsens sv\u00e4ngningar \u00e4r att ha en global riskspridning. Genom att \u00e4ga bolag i b\u00e5de USA, Europa och Asien f\u00e5r man en mix av teknikaktier, industri- och bankaktier ihop med defensiva sektorer s\u00e5som f\u00f6rsvar, telekom och l\u00e4kemedel. Dessutom fungerar dollarn ofta som en positiv faktor i kristider. N\u00e4r b\u00f6rserna faller tenderar dollarn att st\u00e4rkas, vilket lyfter avkastningen f\u00f6r svenska sparare i globalfonder. En v\u00e4ldiversifierad portf\u00f6lj st\u00e5r sig med andra ord r\u00e4tt hyggligt \u00e4ven under perioder av turbulens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Och s\u00e5 hoppas vi, ur alla avseenden, att vi ser en snar nedtrappning i kriget i Mellan\u00f6stern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tack f\u00f6r att du tog dig tid!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Carl-Henrik S\u00f6derberg, ny sparekonom p\u00e5 Nordnet som du kan f\u00f6lja p\u00e5 Instagram h\u00e4r<\/a> och X h\u00e4r<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tidigare publicerat:
S\u00e4g hej till Calle, Nordnets nya sparekonom<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Den senaste tidens h\u00e4ndelseutveckling i Mellan\u00f6stern har \u00f6kat den geopolitiska os\u00e4kerheten i v\u00e4rlden. Utvecklingen i regionen leder till en p\u00e5taglig turbulens p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen och de finansiella marknaderna i stort.Kan detta rubba den positiva bild som marknaden hade kring ekonomin och b\u00f6rsen s\u00e5 sent som f\u00f6r en dryg vecka sedan? Hur ska man som privatsparare t\u00e4nka? […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68652,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/calle3-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/calle3-150x54.jpg 150w, https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/calle3-620x222.jpg 620w, 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