{"id":87020,"date":"2026-01-15T15:02:13","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T14:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=87020"},"modified":"2026-03-10T16:47:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:47:54","slug":"data-visar-volatiliteten-lagre-pa-2000-talet-med-trump-an-utan-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/data-visar-volatiliteten-lagre-pa-2000-talet-med-trump-an-utan-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Data visar: Volatiliteten l\u00e4gre p\u00e5 2000-talet med Trump \u00e4n utan Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Det \u00e4r l\u00e4tt att f\u00e5 intrycket att b\u00f6rsen har blivit mer ryckig under Donald Trumps tid vid makten. Intrycket har inte minst f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkts i samband med USA:s tullsmocka mot omv\u00e4rlden v\u00e5ren 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men speglar dessa kraftiga r\u00f6relser i enskilda tillg\u00e5ngar ocks\u00e5 en mer volatil b\u00f6rs som helhet?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finwire har unders\u00f6kt hur mycket volatiliteten, allts\u00e5 sv\u00e4ngningarna i procent, skiljer sig \u00e5t under 2000-talet mellan perioder med Trump som president och perioder utan honom. Analysen omfattar b\u00e5de den amerikanska aktiemarknaden, m\u00e4tt med S&P 500-indexet, och Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen via OMXS30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r USA har analysen \u00e4ven breddats till att omfatta VIX-indexet, det s\u00e5 kallade skr\u00e4ckindexet, som speglar optionsmarknadens priss\u00e4ttning av f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade sv\u00e4ngningar i S&P 500 den kommande m\u00e5naden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tv\u00e5 \u00e5r med exceptionella ekonomiska chocker har uteslutits ur j\u00e4mf\u00f6relsen: finanskris\u00e5ret 2008 och pandemi\u00e5ret 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slutsatsen \u00e4r n\u00e5got \u00f6verraskande. Oavsett om volatiliteten m\u00e4ts i faktiska b\u00f6rsr\u00f6relser eller i marknadens f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar, och oavsett om j\u00e4mf\u00f6relsen g\u00f6rs p\u00e5 \u00e5rs-, m\u00e5nads- eller veckoniv\u00e5, har volatiliteten varit l\u00e4gre under Trump-perioderna \u00e4n under \u00f6vriga delar av 2000-talet. Det g\u00e4ller b\u00e5de i USA och i exportberoende Sverige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Att Trumps presidentskap sammanfaller med en period av l\u00e4gre volatilitet betyder dock inte n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndigtvis att politiken i sig har minskat os\u00e4kerheten. Marknaden i stort kan ha uppfattat risken som mer hanterbar, trots \u00e5terkommande utspel och snabba r\u00f6relser i enskilda tillg\u00e5ngar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi kan konstatera att os\u00e4kerheten ofta har varit koncentrerad till specifika aktier, sektorer eller r\u00e5varor, snarare \u00e4n till hela marknaden, vilket har d\u00e4mpat genomslaget p\u00e5 indexniv\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samtidigt kan investerare gradvis ha l\u00e4rt sig att tolka presidentens ofta f\u00f6rhandlingsdrivna retorik. Med tiden har utspelen diskonterats snabbare, vilket bidragit till att begr\u00e4nsa effekterna p\u00e5 den breda marknaden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under Trumps styre har heller inga st\u00f6rre b\u00f6rsras intr\u00e4ffat. De kraftigaste nedg\u00e5ngarna har stannat vid korrigeringar snarare \u00e4n utvecklats till breda kriser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r Trumpadministrationen presenterade sina tullplaner v\u00e5ren 2025 f\u00f6ll S&P 500 som mest 4,8 procent under en enskild handelsdag, den st\u00f6rsta dagliga nedg\u00e5ngen sedan pandemin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indexet har \u00e4ven vid tillf\u00e4llen fallit mer \u00e4n 10 procent fr\u00e5n tidigare toppniv\u00e5er, vilket r\u00e4knas som en teknisk korrigering, men utan att \u00f6verg\u00e5 i en l\u00e4ngre marknadskris.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tidiga faser av Trumps perioder har dessutom pr\u00e4glats av relativt svaga b\u00f6rsstarter. Under de f\u00f6rsta 50 handelsdagarna av hans andra mandatperiod var S&P 500 omkring 6,4 procent l\u00e4gre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sammantaget handlar det d\u00e4rmed om kortvariga nedg\u00e5ngar snarare \u00e4n strukturella kriser, vilket bidrar till att h\u00e5lla den samlade volatiliteten nere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det utesluter dock inte kraftiga r\u00f6relser i enskilda tillg\u00e5ngar. Aktier, r\u00e5varor (till exempel koppar) och hela sektorer, (till exempel f\u00f6rsvarsaktier, energibolag och industrif\u00f6retag med stor handelsexponering) har vid upprepade tillf\u00e4llen reagerat kraftigt p\u00e5 politiska utspel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r ett exportberoende land som Sverige har p\u00e5verkan varit s\u00e4rskilt tydlig inom tillverkningsindustrin, d\u00e4r st\u00e5l-, elektronik- och fordonskomponenter h\u00f6r till de mest utsatta omr\u00e5dena, men \u00e4ven handeln i stort har p\u00e5verkats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5tt<\/strong><\/td>Tidsintervall<\/strong><\/td>Trump (procent)<\/strong><\/td>Icke-Trump (procent)<\/strong><\/td>Skillnad (procentenheter)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Realiserad volatilitet S&P 500<\/td>\u00c5r<\/td>14,7<\/td>17,9<\/td>-3,2<\/td><\/tr>
Realiserad volatilitet S&P 500<\/td>M\u00e5nad<\/td>12,4<\/td>15,5<\/td>-3,1<\/td><\/tr>
Realiserad volatilitet S&P 500<\/td>Vecka<\/td>11,6<\/td>14,7<\/td>-3,1<\/td><\/tr>
F\u00f6rv\u00e4ntad volatilitet VIX<\/td>\u00c5r<\/td>14,8<\/td>18,6<\/td>-3,8<\/td><\/tr>
F\u00f6rv\u00e4ntad volatilitet VIX<\/td>M\u00e5nad<\/td>15,2<\/td>17,6<\/td>-2,4<\/td><\/tr>
F\u00f6rv\u00e4ntad volatilitet VIX<\/td>Vecka<\/td>14,9<\/td>17,8<\/td>-2,8<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

K\u00e4lla och metod: Realiserad volatilitet ber\u00e4knad fr\u00e5n dagliga st\u00e4ngningskurser f\u00f6r S&P 500. F\u00f6rv\u00e4ntad volatilitet baseras p\u00e5 VIX-index (Cboe), via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Medianv\u00e4rden har anv\u00e4nts vid aggregering. Period 2000-2025, exklusive 2008 och 2020. Trump-perioder avser 2017-2019 samt 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven f\u00f6r svensk del har volatiliteten allts\u00e5 varit l\u00e4gre under Trump-perioderna \u00e4n under \u00f6vriga delar av 2000-talet, med till\u00e4gget att h\u00e4r \u00e4r skillnaderna \u00e4nnu st\u00f6rre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5tt<\/strong><\/td>Tidsintervall<\/strong><\/td>Trump (procent)<\/strong><\/td>Icke-Trump (procent)<\/strong><\/td>Skillnad (procentenheter)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Realiserad volatilitet OMXS30<\/td>\u00c5r<\/td>14,1<\/td>20,6<\/td>\u20136,5<\/td><\/tr>
Realiserad volatilitet OMXS30<\/td>M\u00e5nad<\/td>13,4<\/td>20,0<\/td>\u20136,6<\/td><\/tr>
Realiserad volatilitet OMXS30<\/td>Vecka<\/td>12,3<\/td>19,0<\/td>\u20136,7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

K\u00e4lla och metod: Realiserad volatilitet ber\u00e4knad fr\u00e5n dagliga st\u00e4ngningskurser f\u00f6r OMXS30 (Investing.com). Period 2000-2025, exklusive 2008 och 2020. Trump-perioder avser 2017-2019 samt 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Efter alla Trumps tull-utspel. Hur har volatiliteten p\u00e5 USA-b\u00f6rsen och den svenska b\u00f6rsen \u00e4ndrats med Trump som president? Finwire har gjort en genomg\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40081,"featured_media":86009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/nik-shuliahin-L4JWn8HHJ30-unsplash-5-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/nik-shuliahin-L4JWn8HHJ30-unsplash-5-150x54.jpg 150w, 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