{"id":85419,"date":"2025-08-19T09:42:46","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T07:42:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=85419"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:30:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:30:11","slug":"det-ar-2021-igen-och-anda-inte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/det-ar-2021-igen-och-anda-inte\/","title":{"rendered":"Det \u00e4r 2021 igen – och \u00e4nd\u00e5 inte"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin-priset n\u00e5r ATH, memeaktier blir en snackis igen, v\u00e4rderingar av vissa techbolag p\u00e5 rena fantasiniv\u00e5erna och ingen h\u00f6jer p\u00e5 \u00f6gonbrynen. Det \u00e4r som om 2021 \u00e4r h\u00e4r igen \u2013 med en viktig skillnad.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e4romveckan n\u00e5dde bitcoin-priset en ny rekordniv\u00e5 p\u00e5 124000 dollar. Bara det s\u00e4ger n\u00e5got om klimatet vi befinner oss i. Numera har vi l\u00e4rt oss att bitcoin kanske inte \u00e4r n\u00e5gon vidare \u201ddiversifierare\u201d i portf\u00f6ljen, \u00e5tminstone inte om en s\u00e5dan \u00e4r t\u00e4nkt att vara okorrelerad med aktiemarknaden. Kryptovalutor<\/a> g\u00e5r bra n\u00e4r aktiemarknaden g\u00e5r bra, vilket beror p\u00e5 att b\u00e5da f\u00f6ruts\u00e4tter en h\u00f6g riskaptit. Det har vi nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under sommaren har meme-aktier<\/a> i USA seglat upp som en snackis igen. Ingen har v\u00e4l gl\u00f6mt memeaktiernas f\u00f6delse i och med Gamestop-yran under 2021. Nu \u00e4r fenomenet inte lika utbrett, men bara att vi diskuterar det igen s\u00e4ger ocks\u00e5 n\u00e5got om riskklimatet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6ga v\u00e4rderingar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vi har p\u00e5 en del h\u00e5ll v\u00e4rderingar som \u00e4r p\u00e5 rena fantasiniv\u00e5erna, f\u00f6retr\u00e4delsevis vissa bolag inom techsektorn. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Och om n\u00e5gon trodde Mag7 var utr\u00e4knade i v\u00e5ras s\u00e5 trodde han eller hon fel. Nu \u00e4r det Mag7 som drar den amerikanska b\u00f6rsen<\/a> igen, och det \u00e4r en kraft s\u00e5 stark som n\u00e5gon \u2013 hur mycket Europa \u00e4n ropar med sina f\u00f6rvarsinvesteringar och kommande eventuell tillv\u00e4xt i k\u00f6lvattnet. Visserligen har AI-racet kommit av sig lite senaste veckan, i samband med en ifr\u00e5gas\u00e4ttande rapport fr\u00e5n universitetet MIT som visade att “n\u00e4stan ingen tj\u00e4nar p\u00e5 sina AI-investeringar”. Det ledde till en techpress p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen, bland annat p\u00e5 Nvidia (som f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt kommer med sin rapport den 27 augusti). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det finns andra fenomen som visar att riskaptiten finns d\u00e4r. Pump and dump, d\u00e4r bedragare anv\u00e4nder sociala medier f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 sparare att investera i rena frim\u00e4rkesaktierna, har tyv\u00e4rr blivit n\u00e5got att brottas med igen. Pump and dump \u00e4r ett otyg som givetvis kan f\u00f6rekomma n\u00e4r som helst, men ska det f\u00e5 stor spridning gissar jag att det \u00e4nd\u00e5 kr\u00e4vs en viss niv\u00e5 av riskaptit p\u00e5 ett bredare plan. M\u00e4nniskor beh\u00f6ver vara villiga att satsa pengar p\u00e5 h\u00f6ga vinster snabbt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positivt tolkningsf\u00f6retr\u00e4de<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Och s\u00e5 har vi b\u00f6rsen i sig d\u00e5, som forts\u00e4tter att \u00e5nga p\u00e5. Orosmoln finns. Geopolitiska risker finns fortfarande, tullturbulensen \u00e4r inte \u00f6ver och det \u00e4r h\u00f6gst oklart n\u00e4r effekterna i form av eventuellt h\u00f6gre priser och s\u00e4mre konjunktur kommer – men det positiva tolkningsf\u00f6retr\u00e4det \u00e4r f\u00f6rl\u00e5tande. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det h\u00e4r diskuterade vi bland annat i B\u00f6rsmorgon<\/a> i DI TV, d\u00e4r jag medverkade i f\u00f6rra veckan. Det \u00e4r 2021-vibbar igen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Svag ekonomi – och h\u00f6g inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Men det finns en viktig skillnad. Och det \u00e4r den reala ekonomin. 2020 och 2021 pr\u00e4glades av – f\u00f6rst\u00e5s covidraset och sv\u00e5righeter f\u00f6r flera sektorer som drabbades av restriktionerna – men innan dess \u00e4nd\u00e5 stabil konjunktur och mycket l\u00e5ga r\u00e4ntor. S\u00e5 ser det knappast ut s\u00e5 2025. Svensk ekonomi g\u00e5r tr\u00f6gt, s\u00e5 \u00e4ven den amerikanska, vilket de senaste syssels\u00e4ttningssiffrorna visar. Det tycks som att tullturbulensen och Donald Trumps allm\u00e4nt oklara besked \u00e5tminstone delvis kan beskyllas f\u00f6r ett allm\u00e4nt os\u00e4kert l\u00e4ge. Dessutom \u00e4r inflationen p\u00e5 obekv\u00e4ma niv\u00e5er. Nu r\u00e4knar aktiemarknaden fortfarande med en r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i USA i september, men det \u00e4r l\u00e5ngt ifr\u00e5n s\u00e4kert eftersom inflationen stiger. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Balansg\u00e5ngen \u00e4r densamma f\u00f6r den svenska Riksbanken, med en svag svensk ekonomi och samtidigt en inflation p\u00e5 3 procent. \u00c4ven om inflatiosuppg\u00e5ngen i juni och juli fr\u00e4mst beror p\u00e5 semestereffekter s\u00e5 vill Riksbanken ha svart p\u00e5 vitt innan man agerar med att s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntan. I inflationsbeskedet b\u00e4ddade man dock tydligt f\u00f6r en s\u00e4nkning under h\u00f6sten f\u00f6rutsatt att inflationen faller tillbaka enligt prognos. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skilda v\u00e4rldar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

B\u00f6rsen och den reala ekonomin \u2013 tv\u00e5 skilda v\u00e4rldar med allt svagare koppling till varandra, s\u00e4rskilt kanske p\u00e5 den amerikanska marknaden. B\u00f6rsens motivering till att \u00e5nga p\u00e5 trots svag makro \u00e4r framtidsargumentet. Det \u00e4r visserligen ganska risigt just nu \u2013 men v\u00e4ndningen kommer ju att komma n\u00e5gon g\u00e5ng i framtiden, s\u00e5 b\u00e4st att handla p\u00e5 det. N\u00e4r det nu blir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin-priset n\u00e5r ATH, memeaktier blir en snackis igen, v\u00e4rderingar av vissa techbolag p\u00e5 rena fantasiniv\u00e5erna och ingen h\u00f6jer p\u00e5 \u00f6gonbrynen. Det \u00e4r som om 2021 \u00e4r h\u00e4r igen \u2013 med en viktig skillnad. H\u00e4romveckan n\u00e5dde bitcoin-priset en ny rekordniv\u00e5 p\u00e5 124000 dollar. Bara det s\u00e4ger n\u00e5got om klimatet vi befinner oss i. Numera har vi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Frida_Bratt_03-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Frida_Bratt_03-150x54.jpg 150w, https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Frida_Bratt_03-620x222.jpg 620w, 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