{"id":85174,"date":"2025-06-27T08:55:47","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T06:55:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=85174"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:47:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:47:32","slug":"forsvarssektorn-splittrar-analytikerkaren-efter-kursrusningen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/forsvarssektorn-splittrar-analytikerkaren-efter-kursrusningen\/","title":{"rendered":"F\u00f6rsvarssektorn splittrar analytikerk\u00e5ren efter kursrusningen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Det r\u00e5der minst sagt delade meningar om f\u00f6rsvarssektorn just nu efter den senaste tidens kraftiga uppg\u00e5ng. Alla bolag i sektorn, i Finwires genomg\u00e5ng, har stigit hittills i \u00e5r, med ett undantag – amerikanska Lockheed Martin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryssland och Ukraina har med USA:s f\u00f6rs\u00f6k och Trumps m\u00e5nga utspel \u00e4nnu inte lyckats enas om en vapenvila. Samtidigt har konflikten mellan Indien och Pakistan v\u00e4ckts till liv nyligen med oenigheter som kretsar kring Kashmiromr\u00e5det. Kinas hot om att inkorporera Taiwan till Kina har blivit \u00e4nnu mer verklighet f\u00f6r \u00f6borna efter att Kinas ut\u00f6kat sina milit\u00e4r\u00f6vningar i omr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6gst p\u00e5 agendan den senaste tiden dock Israels bombningar av Irans k\u00e4rnteknik-anl\u00e4ggningar varit. Oron i krutdurken Mellan\u00f6stern \u00f6kade bet\u00e4nkligt innan Trump kr\u00e4vde, och fick igenom ett eldupph\u00f6r. Det sista ordet om Irans k\u00e4rnteknikprogram \u00e4r dock med s\u00e4kerhet \u00e4nnu inte sagt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kontentan \u00e4r att ett flertal f\u00f6rsvarsaktier har dubblat sitt v\u00e4rde hittills i \u00e5r och v\u00e4l det. Ett hack i kurvan kom i b\u00f6rjan av juni i samband med att Saab fick flera s\u00e4nkta rekommendationer av analytiker. Vi kan konstatera att intresset bland privatsparare d\u00e4refter \u00f6kat markant igen. Enligt Nordnets egna statistik var fyra av de tio mest nettok\u00f6pta aktierna under m\u00e5nadens f\u00f6rsta halva f\u00f6rsvarsbolag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saab, Mildef, BAE Systems och Astor \u00e4r alla bland de tio mest nettok\u00f6pta aktierna bland Nordnets svenska kunder under den f\u00f6rsta halvan av juni m\u00e5nad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Dags att bli mer selektiv”<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analytiker p\u00e5 Bank of America menar efter den exceptionella uppg\u00e5ngen att det nu kan vara dags att bli mer selektiv. Analyshuset har s\u00e4nkt sin rekommendation p\u00e5 Saab till underperform fr\u00e5n neutral. Detta d\u00e5 analytikerna anser att bolagets tillv\u00e4xt nu avspeglas i kursen. Andra analytiker \u00e4r dock mer st\u00f6djande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bank of America lyfter ist\u00e4llet selektivt fram brittiska BAE och norska Kongsberg Gruppen som b\u00e5da har dubbelh\u00f6jts till k\u00f6p. Renk har dock st\u00e4mplats med underperform, precis som Saab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Till skillnad fr\u00e5n BofA:s mer skeptiska syn p\u00e5 Saab f\u00f6refaller andra analytiker mer positiva. \u00d6verlag anser de dock att aktien \u00e4r h\u00f6gt v\u00e4rderad p\u00e5 kort sikt, s\u00e4rskilt med tanke p\u00e5 bolagets begr\u00e4nsade f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbarhet kring int\u00e4kterna p\u00e5 medell\u00e5ng till l\u00e5ng sikt och den relativt l\u00e5ga exponeringen mot europeiska f\u00f6rsvarsbudgetar utanf\u00f6r Sverige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bofa v\u00e4ntar sig ett skifte i sektorn mot f\u00f6retag som har exponering mot slutmarknader och l\u00e4nder med tydliga planer f\u00f6r h\u00f6gre f\u00f6rsvarsutgifter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men \u00e4ven SEB har s\u00e4nkt sin rekommendation f\u00f6r SAAB, fr\u00e5n k\u00f6p till beh\u00e5ll. Bankens analytiker menar att den nuvarande v\u00e4rderingen g\u00f6r aktien k\u00e4nslig f\u00f6r negativt nyhetsfl\u00f6de eller operativa bakslag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senast i raden av s\u00e4nkningar av den svenska f\u00f6rsvarsj\u00e4tten \u00e4r Citigroup som s\u00e4nkte Saab fr\u00e5n s\u00e4lj till k\u00f6p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven Deutsche Bank har s\u00e4nkt den europeiska f\u00f6rsvarssektorn d\u00e5 marknaden redan prisat in l\u00f6ften om framtida f\u00f6rsvarsinvesteringar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deutsche Bank har ocks\u00e5 sv\u00e5rt att se att f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna p\u00e5 det kommande Nato-m\u00f6tet \u00f6vertr\u00e4ffas och vad n\u00e4sta drivkraft f\u00f6r sektorn blir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Vansinne att s\u00e4lja”<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dagens Industri menar att det \u00e4r “vansinne” att s\u00e4lja Saab baserat p\u00e5 den kortfattade tyska analysen. “Ska man s\u00e4lja Saab-aktien fordras en mer utf\u00f6rlig analys \u00e4n detta. S\u00e4rskilt n\u00e4r supercykeln f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsvarsaktier kommer att vara l\u00e4nge, sannolikt minst ett decennium.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inom sektorn g\u00e5r just nu tekniken v\u00e4ldigt snabbt fram\u00e5t. Till exempel har Saab genomf\u00f6rt sina f\u00f6rsta flygningar med AI i Gripen E. Tr\u00e4ningen har utf\u00f6rts med AI-agenten Centaur. Forskningsdata visar att Centaur tr\u00e4nats intensivt i simulatorer, ungef\u00e4r motsvarande 30 \u00e5rs flygerfarenhet per vecka, vilket d\u00e4rmed kan f\u00f6rkorta utvecklingscyklerna betydligt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men den europeiska f\u00f6rsvarssatsningen visar inga tecken p\u00e5 att avtal. Svenska regeringen har ocks\u00e5 g\u00e5tt ut med att de vill finansiera f\u00f6rsvarsupprustningen med l\u00e5n under de kommande \u00e5ren – f\u00f6r att \u00e5terspeglar f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar fr\u00e5n Nato om att \u00f6ka f\u00f6rsvarsutgifterna till 5 procent av BNP. Sveriges finansminister Elisabeth Svantesson uppger ocks\u00e5 att Sverige under en kort tid kommer att kunna utnyttja styrkan i landets ekonomi f\u00f6r finansieringen, givet den l\u00e5ga statsskulden p\u00e5 30 procent av BNP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mer d\u00e4mpad utveckling i sektorn i USA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Amerikanska f\u00f6rsvarsaktier har hittills i \u00e5r inte presterat lika bra som de europeiska eller svenska. Det USA-bolag som g\u00e5tt b\u00e4st i v\u00e5r unders\u00f6kning \u00e4r RTX, som \u00e4r ett tidigare samg\u00e5ende mellan Raytheon och United Technologies. N\u00e5gra av koncernens mest k\u00e4nda produkter \u00e4r luftv\u00e4rnssystemet Patriot som bland annat har anv\u00e4nts av Ukraina under kriget mot Ryssland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lockheed Martin som allts\u00e5 \u00e4r det enda bolaget i j\u00e4mf\u00f6relsen som har g\u00e5tt minus hittills i \u00e5r p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen<\/a> \u00e4r k\u00e4nt f\u00f6r sina F35-plan. F\u00f6rvarsj\u00e4tten \u00e5kte p\u00e5 ett bakslag n\u00e4r det amerikanska f\u00f6rsvaret halverade sin beg\u00e4ran om F 35-plan, 24 stycken, till skillnad fr\u00e5n tidigare 48 stycken. F\u00f6r Lockheed Martin \u00e4r en s\u00e5dan nedsk\u00e4rning betydande d\u00e5 flygvapnet \u00e4r bolagets st\u00f6rsta kund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Boeing som har b\u00e5de milit\u00e4ra och civila kunder tyngdes nyligen av Air India-kraschen, men har trots det \u00e4nd\u00e5 g\u00e5tt plus i \u00e5r. Bolaget \u00e4r verksamt inom allt som har med flyg att g\u00f6ra och har haft en del problem produktions- och s\u00e4kerhetsm\u00e4ssigt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e4s ocks\u00e5 v\u00e5r tidigare artikel “fr\u00e5n februari om “F\u00f6rsvarsboomen driver Saab till nya h\u00f6jder<\/a>“.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Svenska f\u00f6rsvarsaktier<\/strong><\/td>Utveckling hittills i \u00e5r, i procent<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Saab<\/td>118<\/td><\/tr>
Mildef<\/td>60<\/td><\/tr>
Astor<\/td>261<\/td><\/tr>
W5 Solutions<\/td>39<\/td><\/tr>
Embedded Art<\/td>224<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Europeiska f\u00f6rsvarsaktier<\/strong><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Rheinmetall<\/td>196<\/td><\/tr>
BAE Systems (inkl. H\u00e4gglunds)<\/td>62<\/td><\/tr>
Rolls-Royce<\/td>63<\/td><\/tr>
Thales<\/td>79<\/td><\/tr>
Leonardo<\/td>82<\/td><\/tr>
Safran<\/td>25<\/td><\/tr>
Summa Defence<\/td>41<\/td><\/tr>
Hensoldt<\/td>180<\/td><\/tr>
Renk Group<\/td>268<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Amerikanska f\u00f6rsvarsaktier<\/strong><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Lockheed Martin<\/td>\u22126<\/td><\/tr>
RTX (Raytheon och United Technologies)<\/td>22<\/td><\/tr>
Boeing<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
Northrop Grumman<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
General Dynamics<\/td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kursavst\u00e4mningen gjordes 26 juni klockan 15.00<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Det r\u00e5der minst sagt delade meningar om f\u00f6rsvarssektorn efter den senaste tidens kraftiga uppg\u00e5ng. Bara ett bolag i Finwires genomg\u00e5ng \u00e4r ned hittills i \u00e5r. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40081,"featured_media":85177,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/iStock-2155966589-1-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/iStock-2155966589-1-150x54.jpg 150w, 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