{"id":84977,"date":"2025-06-09T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-09T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=84977"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:27:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:27:06","slug":"det-har-avgor-din-privatekonomi-i-sommar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/det-har-avgor-din-privatekonomi-i-sommar\/","title":{"rendered":"Det h\u00e4r avg\u00f6r din privatekonomi i sommar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


Semester i h\u00e4ngmattan i all \u00e4ra \u2013 men f\u00f6r den som vill h\u00e4nga med i vad som h\u00e4nder i ekonomin och p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen<\/a> finns flera viktiga h\u00e4ndelser och datum att h\u00e5lla koll p\u00e5.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Feds r\u00e4ntebesked: 18 juni<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4rmast i tid ligger b\u00e5de Riksbankens och den amerikanska centralbanken Federal Reserves r\u00e4ntebesked som b\u00e5da kommer den 18 juni. Marknaden tror i nul\u00e4get inte att det blir n\u00e5gon r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning fr\u00e5n Fed redan i juni, men d\u00e4remot kan det komma s\u00e4nkningar efter sommaren eller under h\u00f6sten. Amerikansk ekonomi uppvisar svaghetstecken, bland annat bromsar arbetsmarknaden in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dessutom tycks inflationen vara under kontroll. \u00c4ven om tullarna p\u00e5 sikt kan driva upp prisniv\u00e5erna s\u00e5 ger det en eng\u00e5ngseffekt eftersom inflationen m\u00e4ts i \u00e5rstakt, och \u00e4r d\u00e5 n\u00e5got som Fed kan bortse ifr\u00e5n. Till skillnad fr\u00e5n exempelvis Riksbanken har Fed tv\u00e5 m\u00e5l att ta h\u00e4nsyn till, dels inflationsm\u00e5let men ocks\u00e5 st\u00f6ttande av arbetsmarknaden\/konjunkturen. Och det senare tar allt mer fokus, s\u00e4rskilt om os\u00e4kerheten kring tullarna riskerar att skada konjunkturen i sig om f\u00f6retag och hush\u00e5ll avvaktar eller skjuter upp investeringsbeslut.
Donald Trump har minst sagt satt press p\u00e5 Fed att s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntan f\u00f6r att stimulera ekonomin. Det \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se om Fed kan h\u00e5lla emot det trycket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Riksbankens r\u00e4ntebesked: 18 juni<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r Riksbankens del tycks det numera krattat f\u00f6r en r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning. Inflationen var of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrad i maj och ligger visserligen n\u00e5got \u00f6ver m\u00e5let, men det kan Riksbanken nog leva med. Dessutom uppvisar svensk ekonomi allt fler tecken p\u00e5 avmattning, nu senast en BNP-siffra som var s\u00e4mre \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat i april.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven om chansen\/risken f\u00f6r en s\u00e4nkning redan i juni d\u00e4rmed har \u00f6kat s\u00e5 \u00e4r det l\u00e5ngt ifr\u00e5n s\u00e4kert att Riksbanken verkligen g\u00f6r slag i saken. Tullkaosets effekter p\u00e5 svensk ekonomi \u00e4r \u00e4nnu mycket sv\u00e5ra att f\u00f6rutse, eftersom vi inte ens vet vad som egentligen blir verklighet i Donald Trumps handelskrig. M\u00f6jligen k\u00e4nner man sig bekv\u00e4mare med att avvakta och se, \u00e4n att s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntan redan i juni. Men kommer inte s\u00e4nkningen i juni kan den komma i augusti ist\u00e4llet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tullpausen g\u00e5r ut: 9 juli<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Trumps tullpaus \u00e4r planerad att l\u00f6pa ut den 9 juli. Har inga nya handelsavtal n\u00e5tts innan dess kommer exempelvis 50-procentiga tullar inf\u00f6ras mot EU. Tanken med tullpausen var att USA skulle f\u00f6rhandla fram en rad avtal med flera l\u00e4nder, men hittills \u00e4r det bara Storbritannien som slutit avtal. Mellan Kina och USA p\u00e5g\u00e5r f\u00f6rhandlingar, men b\u00e5da sidor har anklagat varandra f\u00f6r att inte ha st\u00e5tt vid sina ord. Diskussioner tycks \u00e4nd\u00e5 p\u00e5g\u00e5, vilket marknaden ser positivt p\u00e5. \u00c4ven EU har st\u00e5tt i skottgluggen f\u00f6r Trumps frustration f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rhandlingarna inte g\u00e5r tillr\u00e4ckligt snabbt eller bra f\u00f6r USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump har dock st\u00f6tt p\u00e5 patrull. USA:s Court of International Trade slog den 28 maj fast att Trumps \u201dLiberation Day\u201d-tullar \u00f6verskred presidentens befogenheter, och att presidenten inte har r\u00e4tt att inf\u00f6ra generella tullar utan kongressens st\u00f6d. Detta \u00f6verklagades och nu utreds fr\u00e5gan. Men under denna tid kan tullarna tr\u00e4da i kraft som Trump (eventuellt) planerat. De juridiska hindren inneb\u00e4r dock att Trumps kanske viktigaste f\u00f6rhandlingsvapen vrids ur h\u00e4nderna p\u00e5 honom. Men observera att tveksamheten endast g\u00e4ller generella tullar mot hela l\u00e4nder. Riktade tullar p\u00e5 enskilda varor har presidenten vad det verkar befogenhet att inf\u00f6ra utan kongressens st\u00f6d, s\u00e5 som exempelvis tullar p\u00e5 aluminium och st\u00e5l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Omr\u00f6stning om USA:s skuldtak: F\u00f6re mitten av juli<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

USA:s h\u00f6ga statsskuld p\u00e5 100 procent (beroende p\u00e5 hur man r\u00e4knar) av BNP har oroat i flera \u00e5r. Det \u00e4r inte konstigt om m\u00e5nga t\u00e4nker att \u201ddet nog l\u00f6ser sig den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen ocks\u00e5\u201d. Att statsskulden \u00e4r h\u00f6g har heller inte ansetts vara ett s\u00e4rskilt stort problem s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge f\u00f6rtroendet f\u00f6r amerikansk ekonomi \u00e4r kompakt. Skillnaden den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen \u00e4r att amerikansk ekonomi befinner sig i ett nytt ljus, d\u00e4r dollarn \u00e4r ifr\u00e5gasatt som v\u00e4rldsvaluta, d\u00e4r administrationen i Vita huset ifr\u00e5gas\u00e4tts och det finns en rotation fr\u00e5n amerikanska tillg\u00e5ngar. Det tillsammans kan skapa problem. Det finns inget exakt fastst\u00e4llt datum f\u00f6r n\u00e4r kongressen ska r\u00f6sta om att h\u00f6ja skuldtaket, men finansminister Scott Bessent har varnat f\u00f6r att USA riskerar att beh\u00f6va st\u00e4lla in betalningar i augusti om inte taket h\u00f6jts innan dess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rapportperioden: Mitten av juli<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rapporterna f\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta kvartalet 2025 visade generellt p\u00e5 lite l\u00e4gre ordering\u00e5ng men p\u00e5 god oms\u00e4ttning och vinstniv\u00e5er. I vd-orden betonades den stora os\u00e4kerheten och of\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbarheten, men m\u00e5nga tryckte ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5 f\u00f6retagens f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga till anpassning och flexibilitet. Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r om os\u00e4kerheten syns mer i Q2-rapporterna, n\u00e4r de b\u00f6rjar ramla in i mitten av juli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Semester i h\u00e4ngmattan i all \u00e4ra \u2013 men f\u00f6r den som vill h\u00e4nga med i vad som h\u00e4nder i ekonomin och p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen finns flera viktiga h\u00e4ndelser och datum att h\u00e5lla koll p\u00e5. Feds r\u00e4ntebesked: 18 juni N\u00e4rmast i tid ligger b\u00e5de Riksbankens och den amerikanska centralbanken Federal Reserves r\u00e4ntebesked som b\u00e5da kommer den 18 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4053],"tags":[72],"class_list":["post-84977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-privatekonomi","tag-fonder"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Frida-NFN-03-1200x430-1-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Frida-NFN-03-1200x430-1-150x54.png 150w, 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