{"id":84753,"date":"2025-05-22T10:58:30","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T08:58:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=84753"},"modified":"2026-03-10T16:37:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:37:11","slug":"var-beredd-pa-blast-pa-sommarborsen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/var-beredd-pa-blast-pa-sommarborsen\/","title":{"rendered":"Var beredd p\u00e5 bl\u00e5st p\u00e5 sommarb\u00f6rsen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Med fortsatt tullos\u00e4kerhet, ny oro kring USA:s statsskuld och fortsatt deppigt hum\u00f6r bland f\u00f6retag och hush\u00e5ll kan det vara l\u00e4ge att f\u00f6rbereda sig f\u00f6r en bl\u00e5sig sommarb\u00f6rs.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mellan den 9 april, d\u00e5 Donald Trump aviserade tullpausen, och innan densamme f\u00f6rst\u00f6rde fredagsk\u00e4nslan genom att hota med 50-procentiga tullar mot EU den 23 maj, var S&P500 upp med 17 procent. Stockholmsb\u00f6rsens breda index var upp med 16 procent under samma period. Det \u00e4r en oerh\u00f6rt snabb uppg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 kort tid. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det gjorde ocks\u00e5 att det fanns fallh\u00f6jd n\u00e4r Trumps gjorde sitt ilskna utspel mot EU. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det var som om marknaden under n\u00e5gra soliga veckor gl\u00f6mde bort att en paus \u00e4r just en paus. Och att avtalet mellan Kina och USA trots allt inneb\u00e4r amerikanska tullar p\u00e5 kinesiska varor p\u00e5 h\u00f6ga 30 procent, respektive kinesiska tullar p\u00e5 amerikanska varor p\u00e5 10 procent. Men det \u00e4r klart, bredvid hotet om tullar p\u00e5 145 respektive 125 procent framst\u00e5r de som rena dr\u00f6mmen. B\u00e4ttre \u00e4n marknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntat sig, till och med.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men framf\u00f6r allt hade nog de flesta gl\u00f6mt bort att med Trump \u00e4r inget avtal f\u00f6r heligt f\u00f6r att brytas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mycket har talat f\u00f6r att Trump-administrationen i och med tullpausen backat i sin h\u00e5rdf\u00f6ra handelskrigsf\u00f6ring. Men Trump \u00e4r uppenbarligen inte n\u00f6jd med de f\u00f6rhandlingar som har p\u00e5g\u00e5tt, alternativt vill han bara h\u00f6ja insatsen i slutfasen av f\u00f6rhandlingarna. Marknaden reagerade initialt med att falla kraftigt, men hade p\u00e5 fredagseftermiddagen h\u00e4mtat sig n\u00e5got. N\u00e4r nyheten hade f\u00e5tt sjunka in tolkade marknaden den uppenbarligen som ett f\u00f6rhandlingsspel, och att Trump kommer att backa. Helt enkelt f\u00f6r att tullar p\u00e5 50 procent vore oerh\u00f6rt skadliga. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Redan f\u00e5tt effekter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Samtidigt ska vi inte gl\u00f6mma de psykologiska effekterna av den of\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbarhet som r\u00e5der just nu. V\u00e5gar f\u00f6retag investera i ett l\u00e4ge d\u00e4r f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningarna kan \u00e4ndras fr\u00e5n en dag till en annan? V\u00e5gar konsumenter \u00f6ppna pl\u00e5nboken i ett l\u00e4ge d\u00e4r de inte vet om d\u00e5liga tider \u00e4r p\u00e5 ing\u00e5ng p\u00e5 grund av s\u00e4mre konjunktur orsakad av tullar? Det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 faktorer att ta h\u00e4nsyn till.
Den senaste rapportperioden visade generellt p\u00e5 n\u00e5got s\u00e4mre oms\u00e4ttning \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat, men b\u00e4ttre resultat. H\u00e5rd data visar \u00e4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge inte p\u00e5 stora konkreta effekter av turbulensen. Det \u00e4r den s\u00e5 kallade \u201dmjuka datan\u201d, den fram\u00e5tblickande, d\u00e4r oron syns. Hum\u00f6r hos ink\u00f6pschefer, framtidssyn hos hush\u00e5llen och fram\u00e5tblickande vd-ord i rapporterna d\u00e4r os\u00e4kerhet och of\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbarhet betonas. Euroomr\u00e5dets ink\u00f6psindex sj\u00f6nk exempelvis till 49,5 i maj, fr\u00e5n 50,4 i april. V\u00e4ntat var en \u00f6kning, som allts\u00e5 inte blev.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA:s statsskuld – here we go again<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Till os\u00e4kerheten har nu ocks\u00e5 adderats farh\u00e5gor kring amerikanska statsskulden. Moody\u00b4s s\u00e4nkte nyligen USA:s kreditbetyg f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsta g\u00e5ngen n\u00e5gonsin fr\u00e5n h\u00f6gsta niv\u00e5 till n\u00e4st h\u00f6gsta niv\u00e5. Amerikanska statsobligationer \u00e4r inte riskfria, och r\u00e4ntorna p\u00e5 dem har stigit. Samtidigt har USA:s finansminister Scott Bessent varnat f\u00f6r att den amerikanska staten \u00e5terigen \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att sl\u00e5 i skuldtaket, det vill s\u00e4ga maxgr\u00e4nsen f\u00f6r statsskulden som best\u00e4ms av kongressen, om inget beslut om h\u00f6jt tak kommer. I juli v\u00e4ntas dramat beh\u00f6va avg\u00f6ras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har h\u00f6rt oron f\u00f6r USA:s skuldtak f\u00f6rr, och det \u00e4r f\u00f6rst\u00e5eligt om m\u00e5nga investerare t\u00e4nker att \u201ddet nog l\u00f6ser sig den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen ocks\u00e5\u201d. Men allt sammanfaller nu med os\u00e4kerhet kring tullar, of\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbarhet f\u00f6r v\u00e4rldshandeln, en president som tycks \u00e4lska att \u00f6verraska med nya f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar – och en fallande dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e5ll i hatten<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

B\u00f6rshimlen \u00e4r kanske inte riktigt s\u00e5 sommarbl\u00e5 som den har verkat den senaste m\u00e5naden. B\u00f6rsen<\/a> har varit glad, men det mullrar bakom kulisserna och of\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbarhet \u00e4r Trumps livsnerv. Samtidigt \u00e4r vi p\u00e5 v\u00e4g in i en av b\u00f6rsens svagaste perioder, sommarm\u00e5naderna. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det har varit n\u00e5gra ovanligt kyliga maj-dagar senaste tiden. Var beredd p\u00e5 att det kan komma kyla och bl\u00e5st \u00e4ven p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen p\u00e5 kort sikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Med fortsatt tullos\u00e4kerhet, ny oro kring USA:s statsskuld och fortsatt deppigt hum\u00f6r bland f\u00f6retag och hush\u00e5ll kan det vara l\u00e4ge att f\u00f6rbereda sig f\u00f6r en bl\u00e5sig sommarb\u00f6rs. Mellan den 9 april, d\u00e5 Donald Trump aviserade tullpausen, och innan densamme f\u00f6rst\u00f6rde fredagsk\u00e4nslan genom att hota med 50-procentiga tullar mot EU den 23 maj, var S&P500 upp 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