{"id":84319,"date":"2025-04-07T16:05:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T14:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=84319"},"modified":"2026-03-10T16:37:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:37:11","slug":"har-ar-ljusglimtarna-i-kaoset","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/har-ar-ljusglimtarna-i-kaoset\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00e4r \u00e4r ljusglimtarna i kaoset"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Det \u00e4r inte l\u00e4tt att se ljusglimtarna n\u00e4r b\u00f6rsen<\/a> m\u00f6rknar. Men jag g\u00f6r ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k<\/strong>. Att Trump eventuellt \u00f6verv\u00e4ger att pausa tullarna v\u00e4cker hopp.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under stora delar av m\u00e5ndagen lyste b\u00f6rserna illr\u00f6da. Uppgifterna om en tullpaus p\u00e5 90 dagar fick b\u00f6rsen att \u00e5terh\u00e4mta sig, \u00e4ven om uppgifterna tycks oklara. Vad som h\u00e4nder h\u00e4rn\u00e4st \u00e4r mycket os\u00e4kert. Men det skvallrar f\u00f6rhoppningsvis om att Trump kanske \u00e4nd\u00e5 \u00e4r mottaglig f\u00f6r vad som sker p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen och vad tullarna orsakar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Om Donald Trump \u00e4nd\u00e5 skulle st\u00e5 fast vid sina tullbesked och om Kina, EU och andra stora ekonomier svarar med samma mynt \u2013 d\u00e5 har vi en nyordning i v\u00e4rldsekonomin. De senaste decennierna har g\u00e5tt i en riktning \u2013 mot mer frihandel och globalisering och d\u00e4rmed l\u00e4gre priser. Det \u00e4r ju en bidragande orsak till att centralbanker under m\u00e5nga \u00e5r hade s\u00e5dana problem med att f\u00e5 upp inflationen \u2013 den motverkades av \u00f6kad globalisering. Produktion f\u00f6rlades i andra l\u00e4nder \u00e4n d\u00e4r f\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning sker, mestadels \u00f6sterut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r det h\u00e4r Donald Trump vill \u00e4ndra p\u00e5. \u00d6kad protektionism ska f\u00f6rl\u00e4gga produktion i USA och skapa fler amerikanska jobb, samtidigt som tullarna ger fina tillskott i statskassan som i sin tur kan finansiera skattes\u00e4nkningar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu \u00e4r ju ekonomi inte s\u00e5 enkel. Det f\u00f6retag som \u00e4r export\u00f6r \u00e4r \u00e4ven import\u00f6r, och komponenterna kommer inte s\u00e4llan fr\u00e5n Kina. Tullarna har d\u00e4rf\u00f6r kallats f\u00f6r v\u00e4rldens st\u00f6rsta skatteh\u00f6jning, eftersom det \u00e4r amerikanska konsumenter som kommer f\u00e5 h\u00f6gre priser n\u00e4r f\u00f6retagens \u00f6kade kostnader ska f\u00f6ras vidare. Och kan de inte f\u00f6ras vidare s\u00e5 kommer vinstmarginalerna att minska drastiskt. Stora konsekvenser f\u00f6r framf\u00f6r amerikansk ekonomi blir det onekligen, och eftersom USA \u00e4r USA s\u00e5 betyder det skador \u00e4ven f\u00f6r andra stora v\u00e4rldsekonomier. Sverige? Vi har liten export till USA, n\u00e5gra procent av BNP. Men vi \u00e4r beroende av exempelvis tysk ekonomi, som i sin tur exporterar mycket till USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekonomer hos JP Morgan sp\u00e5r att amerikansk BNP kommer att minska med 0,3 procent i \u00e5r och att arbetsl\u00f6sheten kommer stiga till 5,3 procent, f\u00f6rutsatt att Trump st\u00e5r fast vid sitt tullbesked. Det kommer f\u00e5 konsekvenser f\u00f6r konjunkturen globalt.
Men vi ska heller inte underskatta de psykologiska aspekterna. N\u00e4r omv\u00e4rlden k\u00e4nns orolig och konsumentens sparpengar p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen minskar i v\u00e4rde drar m\u00e5nga hush\u00e5ll \u00f6ronen \u00e5t sig och ser om sitt hus, n\u00e5got som i sin tur ocks\u00e5 kan sp\u00e4 p\u00e5 skadeverkningarna. D\u00e5 kanske det inte r\u00e4cker med att r\u00e4ntorna skulle kunna bli l\u00e4gre som en f\u00f6ljd av att centralbanker vill stimulera ekonomin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men det finns ljusglimtar:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Trump kan kanske ha mjuknat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Uppgifterna om tullpausen p\u00e5 90 dagar \u00e4r \u00e4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge oklara. Men inneb\u00e4r de kanske att Trump \u00e4nd\u00e5 har mjuknat i sin tidigare stenh\u00e5rda h\u00e5llning? Det \u00f6ppnar m\u00f6jligen en d\u00f6rr och visar att det finns utrymme f\u00f6r f\u00f6rhandling. Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r vad marknaden beh\u00f6vde se, \u00e4ven om uppgifterna som sagt \u00e4r oklara. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Det kr\u00e4vs mycket lite f\u00f6r \u00e5terh\u00e4mtning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I det h\u00e4r l\u00e4get \u00e4r allt s\u00e5 nattsvart att minsta lilla rubrik om att det har \u00f6ppnats en dialog, det har inletts en f\u00f6rhandling eller Trumpadministrationen har b\u00f6rjat tveka om tullarna f\u00f6r att vi ska f\u00e5 en liten rekyl. Det s\u00e5g vi inte minst under m\u00e5ndagen, d\u00e5 uppgifterna om att Trump \u00f6verv\u00e4gde paus f\u00f6r tullar f\u00f6r alla l\u00e4nder utom Kina direkt fick b\u00f6rsen att \u00e5terh\u00e4mta sig. Det visar varf\u00f6r det \u00e4r viktigt att inte g\u00e5 ur n\u00e4r det ser som m\u00f6rkast ut. Den som s\u00e5lt av allt i panik st\u00e5r utanf\u00f6r \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen. Rekylen kan bli kortvarig men i en \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningsfas efter ett b\u00f6rsfall kan enskilda dagar vara avg\u00f6rande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Aktier \u00e4r billigare<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Volvo blev under m\u00e5ndagen 20 procent billigare nu \u00e4n f\u00f6r tre handelsdagar sedan. Om det inneb\u00e4r rea f\u00f6ruts\u00e4tter ju att Volvo egentligen ska vara v\u00e4rt mer \u00e4n det \u00e4r nu, men har man en l\u00e5ng spartid s\u00e5 kommer \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen komma \u00e4ven om vi inte vet n\u00e4r. M\u00e5nga spararfavoriter, som exempelvis Investor, har dragits med i raset och \u00e4r nu billigare. P\u00e5 samma s\u00e4tt f\u00e5r du fler fondandelar f\u00f6r varje m\u00e5nadsins\u00e4ttning du nu g\u00f6r. Mantrat att de b\u00e4sta aff\u00e4rerna g\u00f6rs i d\u00e5liga tider \u00e4r inte alldeles enkelt att f\u00f6lja n\u00e4r det lyser r\u00f6da minus p\u00e5 dep\u00e5n, men det st\u00e4mmer faktiskt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Or\u00e4ttvisor kan plockas upp<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En riktigt grinig b\u00f6rsdag dras allt med, \u00f6ver hela linjen. \u00c4ven s\u00e5dant som inte ens ber\u00f6rs s\u00e4rskilt mycket av Trumps tullar. Det kan handla om sektorer med framf\u00f6r allt inhemsk exponering, som \u00e4r defensiva och ocykliska. S\u00e5dant som or\u00e4ttvist dras med i b\u00f6rsfall brukar kunna f\u00e5 en rekyl n\u00e4r marknaden lugnat sig lite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. L\u00e4gre bol\u00e5ner\u00e4nta<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lite h\u00e5rddraget kan Trumps tullar ge dig l\u00e4gre bol\u00e5ner\u00e4nta. Initialt g\u00e4llde oron med Trumps tullar att de skulle sp\u00e4 p\u00e5 inflationen. Det kan de g\u00f6ra, men centralbankerna skulle kunna se igenom tulleffekten som en eng\u00e5ngseffekt. Ist\u00e4llet kan de komma att fokusera p\u00e5 att st\u00f6tta ekonomin, genom l\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntor. Federal Reserve har en tudelad uppgift, d\u00e4r den ena har just fokus p\u00e5 konjunkturen. L\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntor betyder l\u00e4gre bol\u00e5ner\u00e4ntor. Det kan vara en klen tr\u00f6st f\u00f6r den som exempelvis p\u00e5verkas av s\u00e4mre konjunktur och till och med f\u00f6rlorar arbetet. Men det skulle kunna f\u00e5 upp konsumenthum\u00f6ret n\u00e5got. L\u00e4gg d\u00e4rtill de stora f\u00f6rsvarsinvesteringar i Europa som kan lyfta tillv\u00e4xten \u2013 och det skulle kunna bli helt okej. Det \u00e4r \u00e5tminstone ett scenario att hoppas p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men h\u00e4r och nu vet vi inte vad som kommer att h\u00e4nda och os\u00e4kerheten \u00e4r enorm. Om Trump pausar tullarna blottl\u00e4gger det att han kanske inte \u00e4r s\u00e5 om\u00f6jlig \u00e4nd\u00e5. En f\u00f6rhandlingsvilja hos Vita Huset \u00e4r precis vad b\u00f6rsen ville se. Os\u00e4kerheten kvarst\u00e5r och \u00e4r givetvis fortfarande stor, men det \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen p\u00e5 m\u00e5ndagen visar hur viktigt det \u00e4r att vara kvar i marknaden och inte missa viktiga \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Det \u00e4r inte l\u00e4tt att se ljusglimtarna n\u00e4r b\u00f6rsen m\u00f6rknar. Men jag g\u00f6r ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k. Att Trump eventuellt \u00f6verv\u00e4ger att pausa tullarna v\u00e4cker hopp. Under stora delar av m\u00e5ndagen lyste b\u00f6rserna illr\u00f6da. Uppgifterna om en tullpaus p\u00e5 90 dagar fick b\u00f6rsen att \u00e5terh\u00e4mta sig, \u00e4ven om uppgifterna tycks oklara. Vad som h\u00e4nder h\u00e4rn\u00e4st \u00e4r mycket […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[72],"class_list":["post-84319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser","tag-fonder"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Frida_Bratt_01-150x84.jpg","width":150,"height":84,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Frida_Bratt_01-150x84.jpg 150w, 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