{"id":83897,"date":"2025-02-14T14:13:04","date_gmt":"2025-02-14T13:13:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=83897"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:48:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:48:58","slug":"inflationen-overraskar-vad-hander-med-rantan-nu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/inflationen-overraskar-vad-hander-med-rantan-nu\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflationen \u00f6verraskar \u2013 vad h\u00e4nder med r\u00e4ntan nu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

H\u00f6gre prelimin\u00e4ra inflationssiffror har r\u00f6rt om i r\u00e4nteprognoserna. Vissa banker menar att r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningarna kan vara \u00f6ver och att l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntor snarare \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g upp. \u00c4ven inom Riksbanken r\u00e5der os\u00e4kerhet. \u00c4r det dags att binda bol\u00e5ner\u00e4ntan? Finwire har gjort en genomg\u00e5ng av l\u00e4get.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enligt flera experter har chanserna f\u00f6r en r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i mars minskat efter att prelimin\u00e4ra KPI-siffror f\u00f6r januari kom in h\u00f6gre \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat. KPIF l\u00e5g p\u00e5 2,2 procent, upp fr\u00e5n 1,5 procent i december, och klart \u00f6ver Riksbankens prognos p\u00e5 1,8 procent. KPIF exklusive energi steg till 2,7 procent fr\u00e5n 2,0 procent, vilket var en betydligt st\u00f6rre \u00f6kning \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vice Riksbankschef Aino Bunge uppger att de \u00e4nnu inte vet vad som ligger bakom uppg\u00e5ngen och att enskilda siffror ska tolkas med f\u00f6rsiktighet. men att os\u00e4kerheten kring konjunkturen och inflationen till stor del p\u00e5verkas av faktorer som en svagare krona, utbudsst\u00f6rningar och f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade priss\u00e4ttningsm\u00f6nster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Handelsbanken: \u201cR\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningen \u00e4r klar\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Handelsbanken anser att Riksbanken n\u00e5tt en neutral styrr\u00e4nteniv\u00e5 och att en s\u00e4nkning i mars \u00e4r utesluten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordeas chefsanalytiker Torbj\u00f6rn Isaksson anser att avvikelsen i de prelimin\u00e4ra inflationssiffrorna var ovanligt stor j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med prognoserna.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Det st\u00e4nger definitivt d\u00f6rren f\u00f6r en r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i mars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trots den h\u00f6gre inflationen r\u00e4knar b\u00e5de Handelsbanken och Swedbank med en s\u00e4nkning till 2,00 procent senare i \u00e5r, men tidpunkten skjuts fram till maj eller juni. SEB-ekonomen Robert Bergqvist ser en “tv\u00e4rnit i r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningscykeln” och kallar siffrorna en “kalldusch”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den underliggande inflationen v\u00e4ntas ligga kvar \u00f6ver 2 procent i \u00e5r, vilket g\u00f6r att Riksbanken sannolikt avvaktar med fler beslut. Enligt SEB kan dock pandemins effekter p\u00e5 s\u00e4songsm\u00f6nster ha p\u00e5verkat siffrorna, och priserna kan justeras ned i februari.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e4rt att notera \u00e4r att Riksbanken f\u00e5r en ny avst\u00e4mningspunkt den 18 februari inf\u00f6r n\u00e4sta r\u00e4ntebesked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntor faller inte l\u00e4ngre – dags att binda bol\u00e5net?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Efter en period av kraftiga r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar tycks botten nu vara n\u00e5dd. SBAB f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5r till och med att bor\u00e4ntorna kan b\u00f6rja stiga marginellt fr\u00e5n 2026. De bundna r\u00e4ntorna har slutat sjunka, vilket kan tyda p\u00e5 att l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntorna stabiliseras eller till och med \u00f6kar. Swedbank p\u00e5pekar att obligationsr\u00e4ntorna, som p\u00e5verkar bundna bol\u00e5ner\u00e4ntor, ser ut att stiga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– P\u00e5 pappret \u00e4r det f\u00f6rdelaktigt att binda bol\u00e5nen, d\u00e5 den r\u00f6rliga 3-m\u00e5nadersr\u00e4ntan inte v\u00e4ntas sjunka till dagens bundna niv\u00e5er, s\u00e4ger Nordeas chefsekonom Annika Winsth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r bol\u00e5netagare inneb\u00e4r detta att valet mellan r\u00f6rlig och bunden r\u00e4nta \u00e4r mer balanserat \u00e4n tidigare. Os\u00e4kerheten kring den framtida r\u00e4nteutvecklingen g\u00f6r att beslutet i h\u00f6g grad beror p\u00e5 personlig preferens snarare \u00e4n en tydlig ekonomisk f\u00f6rdel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00f6gre prelimin\u00e4ra inflationssiffror har r\u00f6rt om i r\u00e4nteprognoserna. Vissa banker menar att r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningarna kan vara \u00f6ver och att l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntor snarare \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g upp. \u00c4ven inom Riksbanken r\u00e5der os\u00e4kerhet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40081,"featured_media":73049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4052],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analys"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/riksbanken1024-rikard-jansson-150x82.jpg","width":150,"height":82,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/riksbanken1024-rikard-jansson-150x82.jpg 150w, 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