{"id":83483,"date":"2024-12-12T09:53:36","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T08:53:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=83483"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:49:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:49:54","slug":"analyshusen-overens-sp-500-ska-fortsatta-upp-nasta-ar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/analyshusen-overens-sp-500-ska-fortsatta-upp-nasta-ar\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyshusen \u00f6verens: S&P 500 ska forts\u00e4tta upp n\u00e4sta \u00e5r"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Det amerikanska storbolagsindexet S&P 500 har avancerat 28 procent hittills i \u00e5r och indexet forts\u00e4tter upp\u00e5t n\u00e4sta \u00e5r. I alla fall om man ska tro de analyshus som har kommit med nya prognoser sedan Donald Trump vann det amerikanska presidentvalet. Men flera analyshus pekar p\u00e5 risker som kan p\u00e5verka marknaden. Medianenprognosen fr\u00e5n 13 analytiker \u00e4r en m\u00e5lkurs p\u00e5 6 600, vilket motsvarar en potential p\u00e5 9 procent fr\u00e5n dagens niv\u00e5 p\u00e5 6052,85.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Med mindre \u00e4n tre veckor kvar p\u00e5 b\u00f6rs\u00e5ret har de olika analyshusen fortsatt att toppa varandra i vem som \u00e4r mest positivt inst\u00e4lld till det kommande \u00e5ret. Street high, allts\u00e5 h\u00f6gst bland analytikerna, ligger just nu Oppenheimer som har en m\u00e5lkurs p\u00e5 7 100 f\u00f6r S&P500 vid slutet av 2025, en potential p\u00e5 17 procent. Inget av de ing\u00e5ende analyshusen i v\u00e5r sammanst\u00e4llning tror p\u00e5 en l\u00e4gre kurs \u00e4n 6 500 om drygt ett \u00e5r. De som ligger l\u00e4gst i sina f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar \u00e4r Citi, Goldman Sachs och JP Morgan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r ett \u00e5r sedan gjorde Finwire en sammanst\u00e4llning av hur analyshusen trodde att fem ledande index skulle st\u00e4nga 2024. Vi har st\u00e4mt av hur v\u00e4l deras estimat f\u00f6r 2024 har fallit ut hittills (se mer i detaljer sist i artikeln).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e5 var det inte S&P500 som hade st\u00f6rst f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 sig. Analytikerna f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5dde att indexet enbart skulle \u00f6ka knappt 2 procent. H\u00f6gst f\u00f6rhoppningar l\u00e5g ist\u00e4llet p\u00e5 det brittiska indexet FTSE 100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alla index i j\u00e4mf\u00f6relsegruppen har g\u00e5tt upp under det g\u00e5ngna \u00e5ret, men det index som presterat relativt s\u00e4mst \u00e4r Stoxx Europe 600 som avancerat 9 procent. H\u00e4r fick dock analytikerk\u00e5ren i stort r\u00e4tt eftersom det ocks\u00e5 var det index som hade l\u00e4gst f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 sig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oppenheimer toppar allts\u00e5 listan med en m\u00e5lkurs p\u00e5 7 100. Till grund f\u00f6r analysen ligger en rad positiva faktorer, som f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 en fortsatt stabil penningpolitik och en motst\u00e5ndskraftig ekonomisk tillv\u00e4xt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Vi ser att S&P 500-bolagens vinst per aktie \u00f6kar fr\u00e5n 250 dollar 2024 till 275 dollar 2025, vilket st\u00f6ds av stark aff\u00e4rsaktivitet och h\u00f6g syssels\u00e4ttning,” skriver de i en kommentar. Det fram\u00e5tblickande P\/E-talet ber\u00e4knas samtidigt till 25,8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deutsche Bank och Wells Fargo \u00e4r n\u00e4stan lika optimistiska. Bankerna har m\u00e5lkursen 7 000 respektive 7 007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Christopher Harvey som \u00e4r aktiestrateg p\u00e5 Wells Fargo, kommenterar:
“Trumpadministrationens politik och Feds gradvisa r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar skapar en milj\u00f6 som \u00e4r alltmer gynnsam f\u00f6r aktier<\/a>. Vi f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar oss dessutom att marginalerna expanderar, och att den amerikanska ekonomin v\u00e4xer snabbare \u00e4n de nuvarande konsensusprognoserna.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bland de mer konservativa analyshusen finns Citi och Goldman Sachs, som b\u00e5da f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5r 6 500 punkter. Citi lyfter fram riskerna med en potentiellt mer volatil marknad n\u00e4sta \u00e5r, delvis p\u00e5 grund av Donald Trumps handelspolitik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“H\u00f6gre tullar och politisk os\u00e4kerhet kan skapa sv\u00e4ngningar som p\u00e5verkar marknaden negativt,” skriver Citi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Goldman Sachs \u00e5 sin sida fokuserar p\u00e5 tekniksektorn och noterar att de s\u00e5 kallade “Magnificent 7”-bolagen fortsatt v\u00e4ntas \u00f6verprestera, men i mindre utstr\u00e4ckning \u00e4n tidigare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RBC ser en m\u00e5lkurs p\u00e5 6 600 och pekar p\u00e5 en fortsatt stabil makroekonomi och l\u00e4ttnad i inflationen. Samtidigt noterar analyshuset riskerna med att ha en f\u00f6r h\u00f6g position i marknaden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barclays delar en liknande m\u00e5lkurs och po\u00e4ngterar hur avg\u00f6rande det \u00e4r med hur teknikbolagen g\u00e5r f\u00f6r indexets utveckling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven om konsensus tydligt pekar p\u00e5 en fortsatt uppg\u00e5ng f\u00f6r S&P 500, framh\u00e5ller allts\u00e5 flera analyshus risker som kan p\u00e5verka marknaden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/td>M\u00e5lkurs<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Oppenheimer<\/td>7100<\/td><\/tr>
Deutsche Bank<\/td>7000<\/td><\/tr>
UBS<\/td>6600<\/td><\/tr>
Citi<\/td>6500<\/td><\/tr>
HSBC<\/td>6700<\/td><\/tr>
Wells Fargo<\/td>7007<\/td><\/tr>
RBC<\/td>6600<\/td><\/tr>
JP Morgan<\/td>6500<\/td><\/tr>
BMO<\/td>6700<\/td><\/tr>
Goldman Sachs<\/td>6500<\/td><\/tr>
Morgan Stanley<\/td>6500<\/td><\/tr>
Barclays<\/td>6600<\/td><\/tr>
BofA<\/td>6666<\/td><\/tr>
Median<\/td>6600<\/td><\/tr>
dagens kurs<\/td>6052,85<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vi avslutar med en tillbakablick: S\u00e5 har fem olika index g\u00e5tt i \u00e5r och h\u00e4r \u00e4r analyshusen som har varit mest lyckosamma i sina prognoser hittills:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 har kl\u00e4ttrat 10,1 procent hittills i \u00e5r. Analytikerk\u00e5ren ber\u00e4knade att det europeiska storbolagsindexet skulle \u00f6ka blygsamma 1,9 procent under 2024. H\u00e4r ligger Deutsche Bank n\u00e4rmast i sin prognos p\u00e5 4 850 vid slutet av 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dax 40 har avancerat 21,1 procent hittills i \u00e5r. H\u00e4r hade analytikerna totalt sett r\u00e4knat med en uppg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 1,1 procent. \u00c5terigen har Deutsche Bank i dagsl\u00e4get kommit n\u00e4rmast med sin ber\u00e4knade kurs p\u00e5 18 000 vid \u00e5rets slut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FTSE 100 har \u00f6kat 7,6 procent hittills i \u00e5r, mer \u00e4n f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade 4,7 procent. T&D Asset Management ligger n\u00e4rmast i sin prognos. Analyshuset har f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5tt en kurs p\u00e5 8 200 vid ny\u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det bredare europeiska indexet Stoxx Europe 600 har \u00e5 sin sida stigit 8,7 procent hittills i \u00e5r. Analytikerna r\u00e4knade med att det skulle backa -0,7 procent, men har allts\u00e5 utvecklat sig bra mycket b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n s\u00e5. Deutsche Bank och Citigroup har f\u00e5tt mest r\u00e4tt hittills. B\u00e5da analyshusen hade en m\u00e5lkurs p\u00e5 510 vid \u00e5rets slut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 \u00e4r allts\u00e5 det index i genomg\u00e5ngen som har g\u00e5tt b\u00e4st. Indexet har rusat 27,6 procent hittills i \u00e5r. H\u00e4r var analytikerna inte fullt s\u00e5 pricks\u00e4kra d\u00e5 de tillsammans hade utg\u00e5tt fr\u00e5n en uppsida p\u00e5 enbart 1,7 procent under 2024. Oppenheimer och Fundstrat ligger hittills i \u00e5r n\u00e4rmast i sin prognos med en riktkurs p\u00e5 5 200 vid \u00e5rets slut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fotnot: Avst\u00e4mningen gjordes vid 11-tiden 10 december.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kom ih\u00e5g att investeringar alltid inneb\u00e4r en risk. Det finns risk att du inte f\u00e5r tillbaka de pengar du investerat.\u00a0Se till att g\u00f6ra din egen bed\u00f6mning och f\u00f6rlita dig inte enbart p\u00e5 analytikers rekommendationer.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trots att S&P500 kl\u00e4ttrat hela 28 procent hittills i \u00e5r finns det potential till ytterligare uppg\u00e5ng n\u00e4sta \u00e5r. Det bed\u00f6mer 13 st\u00f6rre analyshus som har l\u00e4mnat nya prognoser sedan Donald Trump vann det amerikanska presidentvalet i november.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40081,"featured_media":75828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Trading-platform-woman-1-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Trading-platform-woman-1-150x54.jpg 150w, 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