{"id":83072,"date":"2024-10-29T11:14:43","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T10:14:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=83072"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:26:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:26:22","slug":"sa-gar-borsen-nar-usa-gar-till-val","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/sa-gar-borsen-nar-usa-gar-till-val\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00e5 g\u00e5r b\u00f6rsen n\u00e4r USA g\u00e5r till val"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

P\u00e5 valdagen brukar b\u00f6rsen<\/a> stiga, oavsett om en demokrat eller republikan vinner valet. Men p\u00e5 lite l\u00e4ngre sikt brukar b\u00f6rsen g\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre under demokratiska presidenter. Det visar historisk data \u00f6ver b\u00f6rsens utveckling i samband med amerikanska val. Men fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r om vi inte \u00f6verskattar politikens inverkan p\u00e5 utvecklingen<\/strong>, skriver sparekonom Frida Bratt.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Om vi tittar p\u00e5 utvecklingen av S&P500 p\u00e5 valdagen \u00e4nda sedan 1928 s\u00e5 kan vi se att b\u00f6rsen oftast stiger denna dag. I genomsnitt \u00e4r avkastningen 0,92 procent, enligt en sammanst\u00e4llning av LSEG Datastream\/Bouhmidi. Detta med en tr\u00e4ffs\u00e4kerhet p\u00e5 77 procent, vilket enkelt uttryckt betyder just att b\u00f6rsen steg i 77 procent av fallen. Se tabellen nedan, som IG f\u00f6rst publicerade. Observera att marknaden fram till 1980 h\u00f6ll st\u00e4ngt p\u00e5 sj\u00e4lva valdagen, men har sedan dess h\u00e5llit \u00f6ppet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vi kan notera att den inledande optimismen kring valet l\u00e4gger sig dagen efter, d\u00e5 uppg\u00e5ngen inte s\u00e4llan v\u00e4nds till en nedg\u00e5ng. Snittavkastningen p\u00e5 S&P 500 \u00e4r -0,71 procent dagen efter en valdag, enligt sammanst\u00e4llningen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marknaden f\u00f6rhoppningsfull<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Av detta kan vi dra slutsatsen att marknaden ofta \u00e4r f\u00f6rhoppningsfull inf\u00f6r val. Presidentkandidater som lovar exempelvis finanspolitiskt st\u00f6d, avregleringar eller skattes\u00e4nkningar v\u00e4cker inte s\u00e4llan optimism hos investerare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ofta \u00e4r det republikanerna som av tradition har just en s\u00e5dan marknadsv\u00e4nlig politik, med avregleringar, skattes\u00e4nkningar och \u00f6verlag en minskad ben\u00e4genhet att begr\u00e4nsa f\u00f6retag. D\u00e4rf\u00f6r skulle man kunna t\u00e4nka sig att b\u00f6rsen historiskt g\u00e5tt b\u00e4ttre under republikanskt styre. Men s\u00e5 enkelt \u00e4r det inte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00f6rsen har g\u00e5tt b\u00e4ttre under demokraterna<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Enligt en n\u00e5gra \u00e5r gammal studie (Pastor, Lubos and Pietro Veronesi, 2019, Political Cycles and Stock Returns<\/a>) d\u00e4r man unders\u00f6kt b\u00f6rsutvecklingen sedan 1927, har man funnit att b\u00f6rsen har gett en genomsnittlig \u00f6veravkastning mot en amerikansk statsskuldv\u00e4xel med 10,7 procent per \u00e5r under demokratiska presidenter. Motsvarande siffra per \u00e5r under republikanskt styre \u00e4r -0,2 procent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Med detta sagt, s\u00e5 har denna utveckling nog mer med andra omst\u00e4ndigheter att g\u00f6ra \u00e4n vilken f\u00e4rg det \u00e4r p\u00e5 styret i Vita Huset. Snarare handlar det mer om vilken slags konjunktur amerikansk ekonomi befunnit sig i, vilket sedan tycks p\u00e5verka vad v\u00e4ljarna r\u00f6star p\u00e5. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vid en period med h\u00f6gkonjunktur, l\u00e5g arbetsl\u00f6shet och h\u00f6g riskaptit blir v\u00e4ljare, enligt studien, generellt sett mer ben\u00e4gna att r\u00f6sta p\u00e5 republikaner, som vill avreglera och s\u00e4nka skatten. Det inneb\u00e4r att republikanerna ofta f\u00e5r r\u00f6ster i perioder n\u00e4r ekonomin \u00e4r god, ofta i slutet av en h\u00f6gkonjunktur. Det inneb\u00e4r ju ocks\u00e5 att under det efterf\u00f6ljande republikanska styret har en l\u00e5gkonjunktur ist\u00e4llet tagit vid, med en uppenbart s\u00e4mre b\u00f6rsutveckling som f\u00f6ljd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Om vi sedan v\u00e4nder p\u00e5 det hela kan man enligt studien se att m\u00e4nniskor har en st\u00f6rre ben\u00e4genhet att r\u00f6sta p\u00e5 demokraterna n\u00e4r ekonomin \u00e4r svag och arbetsl\u00f6sheten h\u00f6gre. P\u00e5 s\u00e5 s\u00e4tt har demokratiska presidenter inte s\u00e4llan f\u00e5tt makten n\u00e4r b\u00f6rsen st\u00e5r l\u00e5gt \u2013 och sedan kan ta fart upp\u00e5t. Barack Obama, som blev vald 2008, \u00e4r ett modernt exempel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Konjunkturen spelar in <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Av det h\u00e4r kan vi l\u00e4ra att det \u00e4r sv\u00e5rt att dra slutsatser om vilken kandidat som \u00e4r \u201db\u00e4st\u201d f\u00f6r b\u00f6rsen. Det handlar mer om andra faktorer, l\u00e4get i ekonomin. Och nu framf\u00f6r allt om amerikanska centralbanken kan forts\u00e4tta med sina planer p\u00e5 att s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntan. D\u00e4r finns en viss farh\u00e5ga f\u00f6r att Trumps politik med \u00f6kade tullar och avregleringar skulle kunna bli inflationsdrivande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven om b\u00f6rshum\u00f6ret i stort snarare drivs av andra faktorer \u00e4n vem som \u00e4r president s\u00e5 kan enskilda sektorer och aktier<\/a> absolut f\u00e5 en kursp\u00e5verkan av valutg\u00e5ngen. L\u00e4s g\u00e4rna mitt inl\u00e4gg h\u00e4r om hur svenska aktier kan p\u00e5verkas<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u00e5 valdagen brukar b\u00f6rsen stiga, oavsett om en demokrat eller republikan vinner valet. Men p\u00e5 lite l\u00e4ngre sikt brukar b\u00f6rsen g\u00e5 b\u00e4ttre under demokratiska presidenter. Det visar historisk data \u00f6ver b\u00f6rsens utveckling i samband med amerikanska val. Men fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r om vi inte \u00f6verskattar politikens inverkan p\u00e5 utvecklingen, skriver sparekonom Frida Bratt. Om vi tittar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/banner-vinner-republikaner-eller-demokrater-150x56.jpg","width":150,"height":56,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/banner-vinner-republikaner-eller-demokrater-150x56.jpg 150w, 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