Kinas fastighetsmarknad \u00e4r i djup kris med fallande bostadsf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning, vilket drar med sig andra sektorer. Trots r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar har regeringen \u00e4nnu inte lanserat n\u00e5got st\u00f6rre stimulanspaket, vilket g\u00f6r att os\u00e4kerheten best\u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Den kinesiska fastighetsmarknaden har fortfarande inte n\u00e5tt sin botten, bed\u00f6mer storbanken Standard Chartered. Det kinesiska konsumentf\u00f6rtroendet \u00e4r l\u00e5gt och det internationella investerarf\u00f6rtroende sviktar, vilket \u00e4r n\u00e4ra kopplat till fastighetssektorn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trots Kinas f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att stimulera ekonomin genom att s\u00e4nka l\u00e5ner\u00e4ntorna och l\u00e5ta bostadsk\u00f6pare refinansiera sina l\u00e5n f\u00f6r att frig\u00f6ra medel f\u00f6r konsumtion, forts\u00e4tter marknaden att k\u00e4mpa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Under det f\u00f6rsta halv\u00e5ret 2024 sj\u00f6nk f\u00f6rs\u00e4ljningen av nya bost\u00e4der i Kina med hela 21 procent, enligt officiell statistik. Detta visar p\u00e5 den svaga efterfr\u00e5gan och det stora \u00f6verskottet av os\u00e5lda bost\u00e4der, vilket pressar priserna ytterligare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
F\u00f6r att motverka krisen har den kinesiska regeringen tidigare presenterat en rad r\u00e4ddningspaket, men har genom \u00e5tg\u00e4rderna hittills inte kunnat stabilisera marknaden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ett nytt f\u00f6rslag som \u00f6verv\u00e4gs inneb\u00e4r att lokala myndigheter skulle f\u00e5 utf\u00e4rda obligationer f\u00f6r att k\u00f6pa upp os\u00e5lda bost\u00e4der, vilket visar hur viktigt beslutsfattare tycker att det \u00e4r att ta tag i krisen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Samtidigt dras \u00e4ven andra delar av Kinas ekonomi med problem. Efterfr\u00e5gan inom st\u00e5lindustrin har minskat markant, vilket har lett till att godk\u00e4nnanden av nya st\u00e5lverk har pausats. F\u00f6retagens vinster har sjunkit kraftigt, och som en f\u00f6ljd av detta har exporten av kinesiskt st\u00e5l \u00f6kat och ligger nu p\u00e5 den h\u00f6gsta niv\u00e5n sedan 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kina upplever ocks\u00e5 en v\u00e4xande arbetsl\u00f6shet, som i juli steg till 5,2 procent fr\u00e5n 5,0 procent m\u00e5naden innan. Detta speglar den svaga ekonomiska utvecklingen, d\u00e4r \u00e4ven utl\u00e4ndska direktinvesteringar har minskat kraftigt. Under f\u00f6rsta halv\u00e5ret 2024 sj\u00f6nk de med 30 procent, vilket inneb\u00e4r att den negativa trend som b\u00f6rjade under f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende \u00e5r har accelererat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trots de p\u00e5tagliga problemen har den kinesiska regeringen \u00e4nnu inte lanserat n\u00e5gra massiva stimulanspaket. Enligt Bill Winters, vd f\u00f6r Standard Chartered, \u00e4r detta ett medvetet beslut. Kina vill undvika att hamna i en skuldf\u00e4lla likt m\u00e5nga andra l\u00e4nder som inf\u00f6rde stora stimulanser under pandemin. Regeringen v\u00e4ljer ist\u00e4llet en mer l\u00e5ngsiktig och f\u00f6rsiktig strategi f\u00f6r ekonomin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kinas centralbank har dock signalerat att det finns utrymme f\u00f6r ytterligare s\u00e4nkningar av reservkraven, \u00e4ven om det inte planeras n\u00e5gra aggressiva penningpolitiska \u00e5tg\u00e4rder i n\u00e4rtid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Prisutvecklingen i Kina har ocks\u00e5 varit d\u00e4mpad. Konsumentpriserna \u00f6kade med endast 0,6 procent i \u00e5rstakt i augusti, vilket var l\u00e4gre \u00e4n f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntat. Priserna p\u00e5 transporter, hush\u00e5llsvaror och hyror sj\u00f6nk, medan producentpriserna f\u00f6ll med 1,8 procent, vilket var den st\u00f6rsta nedg\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 fyra m\u00e5nader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Den svaga inhemska efterfr\u00e5gan p\u00e5verkar \u00e4ven andra sektorer. Bilf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljningen minskade f\u00f6r femte m\u00e5naden i rad i augusti, och \u00e4ven oljeimporten sj\u00f6nk med 7 procent j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med samma period f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. Importen av j\u00e4rnmalm minskade ocks\u00e5 med 4,7 procent, trots att importniv\u00e5erna var rekordh\u00f6ga under 2023. Trenderna \u00e5terspeglar den fallande industriproduktionen och svaga efterfr\u00e5gan p\u00e5 r\u00e5varor i Kina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trots de dystra utsikterna \u00f6kade Kinas export med 8,7 procent i augusti, en siffra som \u00f6vertr\u00e4ffade f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna. Detta exportlyft bidrog till ett v\u00e4xande handels\u00f6verskott, vilket ger Kina en viss l\u00e4ttnad i det annars utmanande ekonomiska klimatet. Dock m\u00f6ter Kina nu motst\u00e5nd fr\u00e5n b\u00e5de USA och EU, som \u00f6verv\u00e4ger att inf\u00f6ra h\u00f6ga tullar p\u00e5 kinesiskproducerade elbilar. Kina har uttryckt en vilja att f\u00f6rhandla med EU f\u00f6r att undvika en eskalerande handelstvist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P\u00e5 de internationella r\u00e5varumarknaderna har priserna p\u00e5 b\u00e5de koppar och j\u00e4rnmalm fallit kraftigt, delvis p\u00e5 grund av Kinas minskade efterfr\u00e5gan. Kina, som \u00e4r v\u00e4rldens st\u00f6rsta konsument av koppar och st\u00e5l, har en avg\u00f6rande inverkan p\u00e5 dessa marknader. Goldman Sachs har s\u00e4nkt sin prognos f\u00f6r kopparpriset, och analytiker fr\u00e5n ING ser ingen ljusning f\u00f6r j\u00e4rnmalmspriserna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hur l\u00e4nge kan Kinas styre avst\u00e5 fr\u00e5n att genomf\u00f6ra omfattande stimulanspaket?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kinas fastighetsmarknad \u00e4r i djup kris med fallande bostadsf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning, vilket drar med sig andra sektorer. Hur l\u00e4nge kan Kinas styre avst\u00e5 fr\u00e5n att genomf\u00f6ra omfattande stimulanspaket?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40081,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-82564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Kina-bred-1-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Kina-bred-1-150x54.jpg 150w, 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