{"id":82130,"date":"2024-08-15T15:49:56","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T13:49:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=82130"},"modified":"2026-03-10T16:40:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:40:39","slug":"borsfallen-och-efterspelet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/borsfallen-och-efterspelet\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00f6rsfallen och efterspelet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

De globala b\u00f6rserna r\u00e5kade ut f\u00f6r en rej\u00e4l turbulens m\u00e5ndag den 5 augusti. Det inleddes med ett rej\u00e4lt b\u00f6rsras i Japan, f\u00f6ljt av nedg\u00e5ngar \u00e4ven p\u00e5 de europeiska b\u00f6rserna och sedermera USA. Men i efterspelet blev ett budskap tydligt: Sitt lugnt i b\u00f6rsb\u00e5ten.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bakgrunden till att de japanska b\u00f6rserna rasade och upplevde den v\u00e4rsta dagen sedan Black Monday 1987 och att Nikkei 225-indexet backade 12,4 procent, tros enligt m\u00e5nga vara reverseringar av s\u00e5 kallade carry trades.\u00a0

Detta genom att den japanska centralbanken h\u00f6jde r\u00e4ntan med 0,25 procentenheter, vilket orsakade ett rally i den japanska yenen. Den japanska valutan blev d\u00e5 v\u00e4ldigt stark gentemot den amerikanska dollarn, vilket orsakade avvecklade carry trades.

Med carry trades menas att investerare l\u00e5nar i en valuta med l\u00e5g r\u00e4nta och investerar i en valuta med h\u00f6g r\u00e4nta. R\u00e4ntedifferensen \u00e4r vinsten. Den japanska yenen har varit popul\u00e4r vid carry trades p\u00e5 grund av landets l\u00e5ga r\u00e4nta. Det funkar dock inte lika bra ifall valutorna \u00e4r volatila.\u00a0

En trader vid namn Adam Khoo p\u00e5 plattformen X f\u00f6rklarar fenomenet som tros ha orsakat b\u00f6rsfallet:\u00a0

M\u00e5nga traders l\u00e5nade japanska yen till en l\u00e5g r\u00e4nta, konverterade dessa till amerikanska dollar f\u00f6r att sedan k\u00f6pa amerikanska aktier<\/a>. Men efter att den japanska centralbanken h\u00f6jde r\u00e4ntan har den japanska yenen stigit mycket i pris mot den amerikanska dollarn. Nu \u00e4r dessa traders \u201cin big shit\u201d, skriver han.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Med detta menas att de nu m\u00e5ste betala h\u00f6gre r\u00e4nta f\u00f6r de yen som de l\u00e5nat och lider av stora valutakursf\u00f6rluster, samt att de amerikanska dollar som de nu sitter p\u00e5 kanske inte \u00e4r v\u00e4rda tillr\u00e4ckligt mycket f\u00f6r att betala av den m\u00e4ngd japanska yen som de l\u00e5nat. Detta ledde till en stor m\u00e4ngd avvecklingar av dessa positioner och d\u00e4rmed f\u00f6rs\u00e4ljningar av amerikanska aktier.\u00a0
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I sp\u00e5ren av b\u00f6rsraset i Japan noterades S&P 500-index f\u00f6r sin v\u00e4rsta b\u00f6rsdag sedan 2022. Turbulensen i USA f\u00f6rklaras \u00e4ven av oro f\u00f6r att USA kan vara p\u00e5 v\u00e4g in i recession efter att makrosiffror fr\u00e5n veckan innan kommit in s\u00e4mre \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efter att b\u00f6rserna fallit var det flera framst\u00e5ende personer som kr\u00e4vde att Federal Reserve skulle vidta n\u00e5gon \u00e5tg\u00e4rd f\u00f6r att den amerikanska ekonomin inte skulle braka samman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bland annat Morningstars analytiker varnade f\u00f6r att de globala b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ngarna kunde bli en “sj\u00e4lvuppfyllande profetia” som leder till recession. \u00c4ven finansprofessorn Jeremy Siegel kr\u00e4vde att centralbanken skulle g\u00f6ra en “akuts\u00e4nkning” av r\u00e4ntan om 75 punkter. Detta \u00e4r ett krav han drog tillbaka fyra dagar senare, med h\u00e4nvisning till efterf\u00f6ljande makrodata som visade p\u00e5 positiva tendenser, samt att USA-b\u00f6rserna steg kraftigt torsdagen den 9 augusti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 tisdagen, lite mer \u00e4n en vecka efter det kraftiga b\u00f6rsfallet, hade aktiemarknaderna i Asien \u00e5terh\u00e4mtat sig igen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efterspelet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En slutsats en del verkar dra \u00e4r det klassiska att inte agera i panik p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen<\/a> och att sitta stilla i b\u00e5ten n\u00e4r det bl\u00e5ser. AP News har pratat med Greg McBride, analytiker p\u00e5 Bankrate, som uppger att en tioprocentig nedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 marknaderna h\u00e4nder i snitt en g\u00e5ng var tolfte m\u00e5nad. \u00c4ven Quincy Krosby, chefsstrateg f\u00f6r LPL Financial, anser att det b\u00e4sta \u00e4r att v\u00e4nta ut stormen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Volatiliteten v\u00e4ntas forts\u00e4tta n\u00e4r augusti och september \u00f6verg\u00e5r i en lugnare s\u00e4songsperiod, men det \u00e4r viktigt att komma ih\u00e5g att det alltid finns m\u00f6jligheter p\u00e5 andra sidan stormen”, s\u00e4ger hon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BMO:s investeringschef Carol Schleif anser att viktiga l\u00e4rdomar gjordes av de kraftiga b\u00f6rsfallen. Dels vikten av att bygga upp en robust aktieportf\u00f6lj, dels att inte \u201cflippa ur\u201d p\u00e5 grund av en enskild datapunkt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Ge det en dag eller tv\u00e5 f\u00f6r att l\u00e5ta saker och ting l\u00f6sa sig”, sa Scheif till Marketwatch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samtidigt \u00e4r det enligt en del analytiker och aktiestrateger f\u00f6r tidigt f\u00f6r att ropa faran \u00f6ver g\u00e4llande reverseringar. Richard Kelly p\u00e5 TD Securities tror att det finns mycket mer carry trades i japanska yen som kan komma att avvecklas fram\u00f6ver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enligt ekonomer \u00e4r det sv\u00e5rt att bed\u00f6ma hur stor omfattningen av carry trades faktiskt \u00e4r. Vissa analytiker pekar p\u00e5 att carry trades i yen kan uppg\u00e5 till s\u00e5 mycket som 4 biljoner dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cJag tror att det fortfarande finns mycket som kan avvecklas, s\u00e4rskilt om man tittar p\u00e5 hur underv\u00e4rderad yenen \u00e4r. Det kommer att f\u00f6r\u00e4ndra v\u00e4rderingarna under de kommande ett till tv\u00e5 \u00e5ren. Det kommer att f\u00e5 spridningseffekter”, s\u00e4ger Richard Kelly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

De globala b\u00f6rserna r\u00e5kade ut f\u00f6r en rej\u00e4l turbulens m\u00e5ndag den 5 augusti. Det inleddes med ett rej\u00e4lt b\u00f6rsras i Japan, f\u00f6ljt av nedg\u00e5ngar \u00e4ven p\u00e5 de europeiska b\u00f6rserna och sedermera USA. Men i efterspelet blev ett budskap tydligt: Sitt lugnt i b\u00f6rsb\u00e5ten. Bakgrunden till att de japanska b\u00f6rserna rasade och upplevde den v\u00e4rsta dagen 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