{"id":80394,"date":"2024-04-04T17:19:35","date_gmt":"2024-04-04T15:19:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=80394"},"modified":"2026-03-10T16:58:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:58:21","slug":"nar-kommer-rantesankningarna-egentligen-har-far-du-svaren","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/nar-kommer-rantesankningarna-egentligen-har-far-du-svaren\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e4r kommer r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningarna egentligen? H\u00e4r f\u00e5r du svaren."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Nu var det l\u00e4ngesen det kom en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning fr\u00e5n de stora centralbankerna runt om i v\u00e4rlden. R\u00e4ntetoppen ser ut att vara n\u00e5dd i l\u00e4get vi \u00e4r i just nu, den Schweiziska centralbanken har faktiskt redan s\u00e4nkt r\u00e4ntan i \u00e5r. Dock kan det vara v\u00e4rt att notera att deras inflationsl\u00e4ge varit klart b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n i andra delar av v\u00e4rlden. Den \u00e5rliga \u00f6kningstakten f\u00f6r inflationen i Schweiz toppade p\u00e5 endast 3,5% i augusti 2022, under mars l\u00e5g inflationen endast p\u00e5 1,0%. Men, s\u00e5 roligt har det inte varit i andra delar av v\u00e4rlden. Den svenska KPIF toppade ut p\u00e5 10,2% i \u00e5rlig inflationstakt i december 2022, en v\u00e4sentlig skillnad. Generellt ser det ut som de flesta l\u00e4nder och regioner verkar ha f\u00e5tt bukt p\u00e5 inflationen, och nu h\u00e4grar r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningarna. Men n\u00e4r kommer dessa egentligen? Jag t\u00e4nkte att vi kikar lite n\u00e4rmare p\u00e5 l\u00e4get i Sverige och i USA.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA (FED)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rsta s\u00e4nkningen v\u00e4ntas: juli.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

(Uppdatering 2024-04-10: Det g\u00e5r fort i hockey, efter dagens inflationssiffror v\u00e4ntas f\u00f6rsta r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningen f\u00f6rst i september. R\u00e4ntemarknaden prisar nu endast in tv\u00e5 s\u00e4nkningar fr\u00e5n FED i \u00e5r.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

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Vi b\u00f6rjar med FED, den amerikanska centralbanken, som alltid tycks vara i fokus. I slutet p\u00e5 f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret, men \u00e4ven tidigt under detta \u00e5r, var f\u00f6rhoppningarna om ett rej\u00e4lt antal s\u00e4nkningar fr\u00e5n FED h\u00f6ga. B\u00e5de analytiker v\u00e4ntade sig upp till 6 s\u00e4nkningar och r\u00e4ntemarknaden prisade in \u00e4ven samma sak. Nu \u00e4r l\u00e4get klart annorlunda. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e4ntemarknaden prisar i dagsl\u00e4get in knappa tre r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar som syns i bilden till h\u00f6ger (bilden \u00e4r klickbar).<\/em> F\u00f6r att kort f\u00f6rklara vad grafen visar s\u00e5 \u00e4r det den implicita r\u00e4nta som r\u00e4ntemarknaden s\u00e4tter. D\u00e5 varje “r\u00e4ntesteg” \u00e4r 25 punkter f\u00f6r FED s\u00e5 motsvarar -25 en r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning. S\u00e5 n\u00e4ra inp\u00e5 som i b\u00f6rjan av januari i \u00e5r visade motsvarande graf -157 f\u00f6r \u00e5ret. Detta inneb\u00e4r att r\u00e4ntemarknaden d\u00e5 prisade in -157 punkter vid FEDs m\u00f6tet i december, och detta motsvarar hela 6 s\u00e4nkningar mot de knappa 3 som v\u00e4ntas nu. F\u00f6rsta s\u00e4nkningen v\u00e4ntas enligt r\u00e4ntemarknaden i juli. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ledam\u00f6terna hos FED \u00e4r ofta ute och pratar, b\u00e5de i samband med r\u00e4ntebeskedet, men \u00e4ven mellan dessa. De olika ledam\u00f6terna har skilda \u00e5sikter och s\u00e5 kallad h\u00f6kighet eller duvighet. Ju duvigare en ledamot \u00e4r, desto mer ben\u00e4gen \u00e4r denne att r\u00f6sta f\u00f6r en sn\u00e4llare r\u00e4ntepolitik, och de h\u00f6kigare \u00e4r mer lagda \u00e5t det stramare h\u00e5llet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

FED ledamoten Bostic, som \u00e4r en av de s\u00e5 kallade h\u00f6kigare ledam\u00f6terna, sade detta under veckan:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I am still forecasting one rate cut this year.<\/a><\/p>\nJag f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar mig fortfarande en(1) r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i \u00e5r.<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rra veckan kommenterade Jerome Powell: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

We can and we will be careful about this decision because we can be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\nVi kan, och kommer att vara, f\u00f6rsiktiga med beslutet (not: f\u00f6rsta r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningen) f\u00f6r att vi kan vara det.<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Inflationen n\u00e4rmar sig m\u00e5let, men inte riktigt d\u00e4r \u00e4nnu<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Som kanske bekant \u00e4r inflationsm\u00e5let i USA 2%. \u00c4ven om b\u00e5de CPI(KPI) och Core-CPI(K\u00e4rn-KPI) r\u00f6rt sig \u00e5t r\u00e4tt h\u00e5ll, s\u00e5 \u00e4r inte FED helt n\u00f6jda riktigt \u00e4nnu. Inflationen tycks bita sig fast runt 3-4%. FED f\u00f6ljer noga utvecklingen i inflationen ihop med hur det ser ut p\u00e5 arbetsmarknaden i landet. <\/p>\n\n\n

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6-7 r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar l\u00e4r det nog inte bli i \u00e5r, men nog p\u00e5b\u00f6rjar FED att s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntan i sommar eller h\u00f6st. N\u00e4r det v\u00e4l blir, det f\u00e5r vi se, FED-ledam\u00f6terna \u00e4r nog inte helt \u00f6verens om n\u00e4r det ska ske heller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men trots dessa f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar, kan vara v\u00e4rt att h\u00e5lla koll p\u00e5 hur inflationen utvecklar sig. Jag brukar l\u00e4gga upp en hel del information om makrol\u00e4get i USA, samt hur r\u00e4ntemarknaden ser p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntesituationen, p\u00e5 sociala medier. Alla l\u00e4nkar till detta hittar du i slutet av inl\u00e4gget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sverige (Riksbanken)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rsta s\u00e4nkningen v\u00e4ntas: juni.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n
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I Sverige \u00e4r situationen n\u00e5got liknande, det talas friskt om n\u00e4r Riksbanken v\u00e4ntas komma med den f\u00f6rsta r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningen. Liknande som tidigare finns \u00e4ven en r\u00e4ntemarknad f\u00f6r Sverige. R\u00e4ntemarknaden tror idag att den f\u00f6rsta s\u00e4nkningen kommer i juni. Liknande FED justerar Riksbanken r\u00e4ntan med 25 punkter, i grafen till h\u00f6ger kan vi se att r\u00e4ntemarknaden i skrivande stund prisar in totalt tre s\u00e4nkningar fr\u00e5n Riksbanken under \u00e5ret. Efter den f\u00f6rsta s\u00e4nkningen i juni, v\u00e4ntas en i september och en i december.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad tror analytikerna?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5nga banker har egna makroavdelningar, dessa brukar ofta uttala sig med prognoser g\u00e4llande n\u00e4r Riksbanken skall f\u00f6r\u00e4ndra r\u00e4ntan. S\u00e5 h\u00e4r ser det ut just nu:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Danske Bank:<\/strong> f\u00f6rsta r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i juni.
Handelsbanken:<\/strong> f\u00f6rsta r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i juni.
Nordea: <\/strong>f\u00f6rsta r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i maj.
SEB:<\/strong> f\u00f6rsta r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i maj, andra i juni.
Swedbank:<\/strong> f\u00f6rsta r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning i maj.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som vi kan se \u00e4r det ganska kluvet hos analytikerna vad som faktiskt kommer att ske. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad s\u00e4ger Riksbanken?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I samband med r\u00e4ntebeskedet s\u00e5 f\u00f6rs ett m\u00f6tesprotokoll som sl\u00e4pps i efterhand, detta kom ut idag den fj\u00e4rde april. I detta finner vi kommentarer fr\u00e5n bland annat Vice Riksbankschef Per Jansson:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Hur ser det d\u00e5 ut med f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningarna f\u00f6r att s\u00e4nka styrr\u00e4ntan p\u00e5 v\u00e5rt n\u00e4sta m\u00f6te den 7 maj? Av det jag idag har sagt om inflationsutvecklingen framg\u00e5r att jag \u00e4r ganska n\u00f6jd med hur det ser ut just nu. Om inflationen letar sig ner ytterligare ett sn\u00e4pp, kanske tack vare l\u00e4gre \u00f6kningstakter f\u00f6r tj\u00e4nstepriserna, vore det naturligtvis inte ov\u00e4lkommet. Men det viktiga h\u00e4r \u00e4r framf\u00f6r allt att utvecklingen inte f\u00f6rs\u00e4mras. Det stora hotet mot att kunna s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntan i maj ser jag i st\u00e4llet, i linje med vad jag sagt ovan, komma fr\u00e5n senarel\u00e4ggningar av r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningsplanerna hos Federal Reserve och ECB.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven riksbankschefen Erik Thed\u00e9en har kommenterat under slutet av mars g\u00e4llande r\u00e4ntel\u00e4get:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Bland annat mot bakgrund av det relativt goda l\u00e4get p\u00e5 arbetsmarknaden finns det en inte obetydlig risk att ekonomin reagerar kraftigare p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar \u00e4n vad som ligger i v\u00e5ra prognoser. Det kan leda till en st\u00f6rre uppg\u00e5ng i efterfr\u00e5gan, n\u00e5got som skulle kunna p\u00e5verka inflationsutvecklingen negativt.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Han forts\u00e4tter: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Den risken kan dessutom vara st\u00f6rre i Sverige \u00e4n i m\u00e5nga andra l\u00e4nder, givet hush\u00e5llens h\u00f6ga skulder som dessutom l\u00f6per mestadels till r\u00f6rlig r\u00e4nta. Denna os\u00e4kerhet talar just f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsiktiga, gradvisa r\u00e4ntel\u00e4ttnader som ger oss m\u00f6jlighet att noga f\u00f6lja och analysera hur ekonomin reagerar p\u00e5 l\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntor. Det f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrar f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningarna f\u00f6r att vi ska lyckas med att n\u00e5 en stabil ekonomisk utveckling med en inflation i linje med v\u00e5rt m\u00e5l p\u00e5 2 procent.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven i Sverige n\u00e4rmar sig inflationen m\u00e5let<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Som vi kan se fr\u00e5n uttalanden av diverse Riksbanksledam\u00f6ter s\u00e5 \u00e4r det inte helt uteslutet med en s\u00e4nkning redan i maj. Inflationen n\u00e4rmar sig det m\u00e5l Riksbanken har f\u00f6r KPIF p\u00e5 2%, senaste siffrorna vi fick s\u00e5 var KPIF p\u00e5 2,5%. Inflationsm\u00e5let innefattar \u00e4ven ett s\u00e5 kallat variationsband i syftet att illustrera att penningpolitiken inte kan detaljstyra inflationen. Detta variationsband str\u00e4cker sig fr\u00e5n 1-3%. <\/p>\n\n\n

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Men enligt kommentarer fr\u00e5n Jansson ovan, s\u00e5 tittar \u00e4ven Riksbanken p\u00e5 hur andra centralbanker g\u00f6r, man vill inte ligga allt f\u00f6r l\u00e5ngt framf\u00f6r hur exempelvis FED agerar. Med detta sagt, v\u00e4ljer Riksbanken att s\u00e4nka i maj, skulle vi bli f\u00f6rst ut att s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntan (efter Schweiz) efter den inflationskavalkad vi haft senaste \u00e5ren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e4ntan p\u00e5verkar som bekant b\u00e5de din egen privatekonomi, m\u00e5nga bolag p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen<\/a> och konjunkturen i sin helhet. R\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar \u00e4r nog n\u00e5got som m\u00e5nga ser som v\u00e4ldigt v\u00e4lkommet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vill du h\u00e4nga med i lite frekventare uppdateringar om marknaden s\u00e5 kan du f\u00f6lja mig p\u00e5 Twitter<\/a>, Threads<\/a> och Instagram<\/a>. D\u00e4r kan du \u00e4ven st\u00e4lla fr\u00e5gor om b\u00f6rsen, sparande, trading eller om du har funderingar kring Nordnet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tills n\u00e4sta g\u00e5ng!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Axel<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e4s mer fr\u00e5n Axel Karlsson:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5natlig \u00e5terbetalning av k\u00e4llskatt kan ge dig mer \u00e4n 30% extra avkastning!<\/a>
Snart kommer skatte\u00e5terb\u00e4ringen \u2013 vad ska du g\u00f6ra med pengarna?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nu var det l\u00e4ngesen det kom en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning fr\u00e5n de stora centralbankerna runt om i v\u00e4rlden. R\u00e4ntetoppen ser ut att vara n\u00e5dd i l\u00e4get vi \u00e4r i just nu, den Schweiziska centralbanken har faktiskt redan s\u00e4nkt r\u00e4ntan i \u00e5r. Dock kan det vara v\u00e4rt att notera att deras inflationsl\u00e4ge varit klart b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n i andra […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40154,"featured_media":80356,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DSC02299-22-150x58.png","width":150,"height":58,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DSC02299-22-150x58.png 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