{"id":78656,"date":"2023-12-05T12:03:41","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T11:03:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=78656"},"modified":"2023-12-05T12:06:24","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T11:06:24","slug":"med-sikte-stallt-pa-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/med-sikte-stallt-pa-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Med sikte p\u00e5 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

B\u00f6rs\u00e5ret g\u00e5r mot sitt slut. Just nu \u00e4r b\u00f6rsen<\/a> upp i \u00e5r, men det \u00e4r en sanning med modifikation. F\u00f6r den som varit investerad i de stora b\u00f6rsj\u00e4ttarna som Investor, Volvo och H&M har \u00e5ret varit fantastiskt. Den som d\u00e4remot riktat in sig p\u00e5 fastighetsaktier och sm\u00e5bolag har n\u00e4rmast upplevt en b\u00f6rskrasch. Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r, hur blir 2024?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maximal riskvilja, minimal logik<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ibland t\u00e4nker jag tillbaka p\u00e5 \u00e5ren med minusr\u00e4nta, en l\u00e5ng period d\u00e4r riskviljan var maximal och logiken ibland minimal. F\u00f6retagen kunde i princip s\u00e4lja en produkt som kostade 20 kr att tillverka f\u00f6r 10 kr. Folk k\u00f6pte produkten f\u00f6r att den var s\u00e5 billig och bolaget visade f\u00f6r b\u00f6rsen: \u201dKolla, v\u00e5r f\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning \u00f6kar kraftigt!\u201d. Varp\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen bel\u00f6nade med en rusande aktiekurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seden kom r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningarna h\u00f6sten 2022 och investerarna fr\u00e5gade: \u201dOkej, ni s\u00e5lde produkten med f\u00f6rlust, kan ni h\u00f6ja priset, g\u00f6ra vinst och beh\u00e5lla er tillv\u00e4xt?\u201d. \u00c5r 2023 visade att svaret p\u00e5 den fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r nej. Det blev tv\u00e4rtom ett \u00e5r d\u00e4r m\u00e5nga f\u00f6rhoppningsbolag, ofta sm\u00e5bolag, fick se sina aktiekurser<\/a> ta storstryk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kritiskt f\u00f6r fastighetssektorn<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En annan sektor som tog storstryk var fastighetssektorn d\u00e4r de h\u00f6ga r\u00e4ntorna sl\u00e5r stenh\u00e5rt. H\u00e4r ser man tydlig skillnad p\u00e5 bolagen; vissa handlas som om konkurs \u00e4r n\u00e4rst\u00e5ende, medan andra till och med \u00e4r p\u00e5 plus i \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad har vi d\u00e5 l\u00e4rt oss? F\u00f6rr eller senare kommer logik segra \u00f6ver sentiment. Resterna bland sm\u00e5bolagen som decimerats i \u00e5r inneb\u00e4r att man kan hitta fyndl\u00e4gen, det viktiga \u00e4r bara att kunna skilja billigt skrot fr\u00e5n billig kvalitet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r \u00e5r 2024 kan vi f\u00f6rv\u00e4nta oss l\u00e5gkonjunktur och till viss del \u00e4r den redan \u201dinprisad\u201d p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen. Det kommer att finnas sm\u00e5bolag som inte lyckas leverera bra rapporter och de l\u00e4r forts\u00e4tta straffas p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen hur \u201dbilliga\u201d de \u00e4n redan \u00e4r. Sedan kommer det att finnas bolag som st\u00e5r starka, som egentligen inte beh\u00f6ver leverera bra rapporter utan klarar sig med att uppn\u00e5 f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna. Hur hittar man de bolagen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitt tips \u00e4r att leta efter bolag som \u00e4r marknadsledare i sin nisch, har positiva kassafl\u00f6den, g\u00f6r vinst p\u00e5 riktigt (inte bara EBITDA), har en l\u00e5g nettoskuld och en rimlig eller l\u00e5g v\u00e4rdering. Tyv\u00e4rr \u00e4r det s\u00e4llan man hittar bolag som uppfyller alla kriterier, s\u00e5 till viss del f\u00e5r man vara flexibel. Men jag tror man g\u00f6r klokt i att t\u00e4nka igenom sina investeringar och vara extra kr\u00e4sen. Egentligen g\u00e4ller dessa regler alltid, men under tiden med minusr\u00e4nta kunde man chansa friskt. Det mesta gick upp och man bel\u00f6nades trots oaktsamhet medan man idag riskerar att straffas brutalt f\u00f6r minsta snedsteg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e5got annat man ska vara beredd p\u00e5 2024 \u00e4r hur stor p\u00e5verkan r\u00e4ntan har. N\u00e4r amerikanska FED flaggade f\u00f6r att de kan ha n\u00e5tt r\u00e4ntetoppen eller vara n\u00e4ra den s\u00e5 tolkades det otroligt positivt hos de svenska fastighetsbolagen. Logiken \u00e4r att svenska styrr\u00e4ntan till stor del f\u00f6ljer FED:s r\u00e4nta, vilket i s\u00e5 fall skulle inneb\u00e4ra att vi ser slutet p\u00e5 r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar och till och med kan hoppas p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar. N\u00e5got som kan g\u00f6ra de mest r\u00e4ntek\u00e4nsliga bolagen till nettovinnarna. R\u00e4kna med att detta forts\u00e4tter in i 2024 d\u00e4r r\u00e4ntan p\u00e5verkar bolag i allm\u00e4nhet och fastighetsbolag i synnerhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stundande val i USA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En annan viktig faktor som spelar in \u00e4r presidentvalet i USA 2024. Som regel brukar det inneb\u00e4ra diverse l\u00f6ften fr\u00e5n presidentkandidater, bland annat om att minska l\u00e4kemedelskostnaderna f\u00f6r amerikanarna, eftersom sjukv\u00e5rden blivit s\u00e5 dyr i USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den h\u00e4r typen av utspel kan f\u00e5 hela l\u00e4kemedelssektorn att skaka, men brukar till syvende och sist aldrig leda till n\u00e5gra st\u00f6rre faktiska effekter oavsett vem som vinner. Det \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se om detta upprepar sig \u00e4ven i detta val.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

B\u00f6rs\u00e5ret g\u00e5r mot sitt slut. Just nu \u00e4r b\u00f6rsen upp i \u00e5r, men det \u00e4r en sanning med modifikation. F\u00f6r den som varit investerad i de stora b\u00f6rsj\u00e4ttarna som Investor, Volvo och H&M har \u00e5ret varit fantastiskt. Den som d\u00e4remot riktat in sig p\u00e5 fastighetsaktier och sm\u00e5bolag har n\u00e4rmast upplevt en b\u00f6rskrasch. Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r, hur […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68573,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[72],"class_list":["post-78656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser","tag-fonder"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/1200x430_ara_blogg-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/1200x430_ara_blogg-150x54.png 150w, 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