{"id":77980,"date":"2023-10-17T12:05:47","date_gmt":"2023-10-17T10:05:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=77980"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:00:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:00:37","slug":"fem-eventuella-ljusglimtar-for-din-planbok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/fem-eventuella-ljusglimtar-for-din-planbok\/","title":{"rendered":"Fem (eventuella) ljusglimtar f\u00f6r din pl\u00e5nbok"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

H\u00f6stm\u00f6rkret b\u00f6rjar nu p\u00e5 allvar dra in \u00f6ver svensk ekonomi samtidigt som bol\u00e5ner\u00e4ntorna kryper upp \u00f6ver 5 procent. Finns det n\u00e5got ljus i tunneln? Jag listar fem ljusglimtar f\u00f6r pl\u00e5nboken att ta fasta p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har p\u00e5 v\u00e4ldigt kort tid g\u00e5tt fr\u00e5n ett l\u00e4ge med ultral\u00e5ga r\u00e4ntor, enorma pris\u00f6kningar p\u00e5 bost\u00e4der, b\u00f6rsfest och i princip ingen inflation. Nu \u00e4r l\u00e4get det totalt motsatta, p\u00e5 alla punkter. Det \u00e4r klart att den omst\u00e4llningen blir k\u00e4nnbar f\u00f6r v\u00e4ldigt m\u00e5nga hush\u00e5ll, s\u00e4rskilt n\u00e4r den g\u00e5tt s\u00e5 snabbt, \u00e4ven om man nog f\u00e5r konstatera att vi kommer fr\u00e5n ett l\u00e4ge d\u00e4r vi haft det ovanligt bra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u00e4nslan f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga hush\u00e5ll \u00e4r onekligen att pl\u00e5nboksl\u00e4get \u00e4r dystert. Den vanligaste fr\u00e5gan jag f\u00e5r just nu \u00e4r \u201dn\u00e4r v\u00e4nder det?\u201d. Svaret beror f\u00f6rst\u00e5s p\u00e5 vad man avser. Konjunkturen? B\u00f6rsen<\/a>? Bopriserna? R\u00e4ntorna?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag har letat upp n\u00e5gra ljus i tunneln p\u00e5 ett antal omr\u00e5den, n\u00e5gra ljusglimtar att kanske tr\u00f6sta sig med n\u00e4r det k\u00e4nns tungt f\u00f6r pl\u00e5nboken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Inflationen faller<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fredagens inflationssiffra f\u00f6r september var visserligen en besvikelse. \u00d6nskv\u00e4rt hade varit om inflationen fallit i snabbare takt. Men faktum kvarst\u00e5r att inflationen \u00e4nd\u00e5 backar, och det g\u00e5r fortsatt \u00e5t r\u00e4tt h\u00e5ll. Inflationen l\u00e5g under 2022 p\u00e5 i snitt 7,7 procent. F\u00f6r 2023 v\u00e4ntas den landa p\u00e5 6 procent enligt Konjunkturinstitutet, men redan 2024 v\u00e4ntas snittet bli 1,6 procent. Det \u00e4r en prognos, men f\u00f6rhoppningsvis f\u00e5r institutet r\u00e4tt. En fallande inflation \u00e4r n\u00e4mligen nyckeln till en v\u00e4ndning p\u00e5 flera plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. R\u00e4ntorna toppar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Inflationsutfallet i september st\u00e4rker scenariot med ytterligare en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning fr\u00e5n Riksbanken. Det skulle i s\u00e5 fall g\u00f6ra att vi hamnar p\u00e5 en styrr\u00e4nta p\u00e5 4,25 procent. Men d\u00e4r b\u00f6r Riksbanken ta en paus. Det g\u00e5r att argumentera f\u00f6r att r\u00e4nteniv\u00e5n nu redan \u00e4r \u00e5tstramande, vilket b\u00f6rjar synas p\u00e5 svensk ekonomi. Hur som helst \u2013 r\u00e4ntetoppen b\u00f6r vi se i h\u00f6st. Det g\u00f6r att vi kan se ett slut p\u00e5 den snabba uppg\u00e5ngen f\u00f6r r\u00f6rliga bol\u00e5ner\u00e4ntor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sedan \u00e4r f\u00f6rst\u00e5s fr\u00e5gan n\u00e4r vi kan f\u00e5 se s\u00e4nkningar. Jag tror att Riksbanken kan beh\u00f6va b\u00f6rja s\u00e4nka redan under andra halvan n\u00e4sta \u00e5r. Det tror de inte sj\u00e4lva, prognosen fr\u00e5n Riksbanken s\u00e4ger fortfarande en r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkning f\u00f6rst 2026. Men allt beror p\u00e5 hur h\u00e5rt ekonomin landar efter Riksbanken snabba serie av r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. B\u00f6rshum\u00f6ret kan v\u00e4nda<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven h\u00e4r \u00e4r inflationen och r\u00e4ntan nyckeln. Den amerikanska centralbanken har uppenbarligen b\u00f6rshum\u00f6ret helt i sin hand. De senaste m\u00e5naderna har b\u00f6rsen varit dyster n\u00e4r Fed har gjort klart att man avser l\u00e5ta r\u00e4ntan vara \u201dhigher for longer\u201d. Det vill s\u00e4ga, f\u00f6rhoppningarna om r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar har kommit p\u00e5 skam. Dock har det kommit en del signaler den senaste veckan om att det kanske r\u00e4cker med r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar nu, eftersom l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntorna har stigit s\u00e5 kraftigt och d\u00e4rmed gjort en del av Feds jobb med att strama \u00e5t. D\u00e4rf\u00f6r har chansen att dagens niv\u00e5 p\u00e5 styrr\u00e4ntan anses vara tillr\u00e4ckligt \u00e5tstramande \u00f6kat. Det har gjort marknaden lite gladare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r f\u00f6rsta r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningen kommer l\u00e5ter jag fortfarande vara osagt. Men f\u00f6r centralbankerna finns knappast n\u00e5gra incitament att b\u00f6rja tala om n\u00e4ra f\u00f6rest\u00e5ende r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar, eftersom det direkt skulle f\u00e5 marknaden att springa f\u00f6re och d\u00e4rmed d\u00e4mpa effekterna av de redan genomf\u00f6rda r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningarna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En annan positiv faktor att ta fasta p\u00e5 ur ett b\u00f6rsperspektiv \u00e4r givetvis att de b\u00e4sta aff\u00e4rerna g\u00f6rs n\u00e4r det ser som m\u00f6rkast ut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Mild l\u00e5gkonjunktur<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Konjunkturen sp\u00e5s faktiskt v\u00e4nda upp redan n\u00e4sta \u00e5r, \u00e5tminstone enligt Konjunkturinstitutet. Arbetsl\u00f6sheten sp\u00e5s stiga upp emot 8,3 procent, men det \u00e4r en relativt m\u00e5ttlig \u00f6kning. De allra flesta kommer att f\u00e5 beh\u00e5lla sina jobb. D\u00e4rmed kommer man ocks\u00e5 kunna betala sina bol\u00e5ner\u00e4ntor \u2013 det har banken n\u00e4mligen kollat sedan innan. P\u00e5 s\u00e5 s\u00e4tt b\u00f6r det inte heller bli n\u00e5got fritt fall p\u00e5 bostadsmarknaden, som redan b\u00f6rjat visa tecken p\u00e5 viss stabilisering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. L\u00e4gre elpriser<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5nga villa\u00e4gare minns f\u00f6rra h\u00f6sten och vintern med fasa. I september 2022 l\u00e5g snittpriset f\u00f6r el i elomr\u00e5de 3 p\u00e5 hela 243 \u00f6re\/kWh. Men vissa dagar kunde spotpriserna stiga upp emot 7-800 \u00f6re\/kWh. Vi l\u00e4rde oss dra ur kontakter, ta p\u00e5 oss extratr\u00f6jor och s\u00e4nka temperaturen och ta snabbduschar. I \u00e5r \u00e4r l\u00e4get helt annorlunda. Snittet f\u00f6r september 2023 \u00e4r 26 \u00f6re i elomr\u00e5de 3. I oktober 2023 sp\u00e5s snittpriset bli 20 \u00f6re\/kWh. En enorm skillnad privatekonomiskt f\u00f6r landets villa\u00e4gare. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e4get kan \u00e4ndras. Svarta svanar kan flyga in. Vi har \u00e4nnu ett krig, det mellan Israel och Hamas \u2013 fruktansv\u00e4rt p\u00e5 alla s\u00e4tt ur ett humanit\u00e4rt perspektiv. Det skulle kunna p\u00e5verka makrobilden. F\u00e5r vi en spridning av konflikten i Mellan\u00f6stern kan det exempelvis p\u00e5verka oljepriset, vilket i sin tur kan f\u00e5 konsekvenser f\u00f6r inflationsbek\u00e4mpningen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men \u00e4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge finns faktiskt n\u00e5gra positiva faktorer att h\u00e5lla i bakhuvudet n\u00e4r l\u00e4get k\u00e4nns som allra m\u00f6rkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00f6stm\u00f6rkret b\u00f6rjar nu p\u00e5 allvar dra in \u00f6ver svensk ekonomi samtidigt som bol\u00e5ner\u00e4ntorna kryper upp \u00f6ver 5 procent. Finns det n\u00e5got ljus i tunneln? Jag listar fem ljusglimtar f\u00f6r pl\u00e5nboken att ta fasta p\u00e5. Vi har p\u00e5 v\u00e4ldigt kort tid g\u00e5tt fr\u00e5n ett l\u00e4ge med ultral\u00e5ga r\u00e4ntor, enorma pris\u00f6kningar p\u00e5 bost\u00e4der, b\u00f6rsfest och i princip […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Frida-NFN-01-1200x430-1-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Frida-NFN-01-1200x430-1-150x54.png 150w, https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Frida-NFN-01-1200x430-1-620x222.png 620w, 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