{"id":77290,"date":"2023-09-05T09:42:17","date_gmt":"2023-09-05T07:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=77290"},"modified":"2023-09-11T10:14:35","modified_gmt":"2023-09-11T08:14:35","slug":"borsen-topp-tre-att-halla-koll-pa-i-host","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/borsen-topp-tre-att-halla-koll-pa-i-host\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00f6rsen: Topp tre att h\u00e5lla koll p\u00e5 i h\u00f6st"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

H\u00f6sten \u00e4r h\u00e4r och vi \u00e4r inne i andra halvan av 2023. Det har hittills varit ett skakigt \u00e5r med svagt positiv b\u00f6rs som idag \u00e4r upp runt 5 procent. Men, mer intressant \u00e4r fr\u00e5gan om hur man ska agera fram\u00f6ver; vad det \u00e4r bra att h\u00e5lla koll p\u00e5 i h\u00f6st? Om det skriver jag h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Kassafl\u00f6de<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det finns m\u00e5nga bolag som har det tufft just nu, men faktum \u00e4r att det \u00e4r stor variation dem emellan. Vissa har det tufft, men <\/em>med en stark balansr\u00e4kning som ger andrum. Man har g\u00e5tt fr\u00e5n starka kassafl\u00f6den till svagare kassafl\u00f6den, men de \u00e4r fortfarande positiva. H\u00e4r beh\u00f6vs ingen panik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sedan finns bolag som rent av bl\u00f6der kassa, de har ett negativt kassafl\u00f6de som lappas ihop med nya l\u00e5n. H\u00e4r \u00e4r det l\u00e4ge att se upp! Risken i den h\u00e4r typen av bolag \u00e4r att kassan minskar och m\u00e5ste fyllas p\u00e5 med nya l\u00e5n som tas till en h\u00f6g r\u00e4nta, n\u00e5got som \u00f6kar de finansiella kostnaderna och f\u00f6rsvagar balansr\u00e4kningen. Eventuellt kan en nyemission beh\u00f6va g\u00f6ras och det \u00e4r usel tajming f\u00f6r nyemissioner just nu. Risken som jag ser \u00e4r att emissionskursen m\u00e5ste s\u00e4ttas v\u00e4ldigt l\u00e5gt, utsp\u00e4dningen blir omfattande och aktien tar storstryk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitt tips \u00e4r att kika p\u00e5 kassafl\u00f6de f\u00f6r den l\u00f6pande verksamheten, den vill du verkligen ha positiv. Kolla \u00e4ven kassafl\u00f6de f\u00f6r finansieringsverksamheten: Hur agerade bolaget? Amorterade man eller tog man nya l\u00e5n? Kolla d\u00e4refter hur mycket kassa som \u00e4r kvar. Kan du redan nu se att verksamheten bl\u00f6der och att man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker r\u00e4dda den sinande kassan med nya l\u00e5n, ja, d\u00e5 \u00e4r det en betydande varningssignal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Svag tillv\u00e4x<\/strong>t<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Under minusr\u00e4ntans tid var pengar i princip “gratis”, riskviljan enorm och tillv\u00e4xtbolag hett. Problemet \u00e4r att festen \u00e4r \u00f6ver. H\u00e4r g\u00e4ller det att se upp eftersom vissa bolag fortfarande har h\u00f6ga v\u00e4rderingar som h\u00e4nger p\u00e5 att de ska kunna leverera stark tillv\u00e4xt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e5 fort marknaden f\u00e5r k\u00e4nning av att tillv\u00e4xten b\u00f6rjat stanna av kan aktien ta stryk. Det h\u00e4nde nyligen i exempelvis Adyen, det tidigare s\u00e5 hyllade holl\u00e4ndska fintech-bolaget. De levererade en bra rapport i sig, men klart s\u00e4mre p\u00e5 alla punkter \u00e4n de h\u00f6gt st\u00e4llda f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna. Aktien i princip halverades p\u00e5 en vecka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e4kneexempel: Har du en aktie som v\u00e4xer l\u00f6nsamt 30 procent per \u00e5r s\u00e5 kan absolut PE 60x g\u00e5 att motivera. Men f\u00f6rvandlas den tillv\u00e4xten till bara tv\u00e5 procent med tuffa utsikter fram\u00f6ver s\u00e5 kanske PE 12x \u00e4r mer rimligt. Nu tog jag siffror ur luften, verkligheten \u00e4r mer komplex och skiljer sig fr\u00e5n bransch till bransch. Men om jag till\u00e5ts forts\u00e4tta med detta r\u00e4kneexempel skulle det inneb\u00e4ra att aktien har en rimlig nedsida p\u00e5 runt 80 procent…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Fynda kvalitet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Mitt i allt det dystra finns det en annan sida; att festen med minusr\u00e4nta och gratispengar \u00e4r slut kan ha en f\u00f6rdel: Fynd! Men h\u00e4r vill jag f\u00f6rtydliga: Att hitta krisande bolag till l\u00e5g v\u00e4rdering \u00e4r som att hitta en extremt billig semester d\u00e4r destinationen \u00e4r en oisolerad stuga med lofts\u00e4ng mitt ute i ingenstans en kall regning oktoberhelg. Det m\u00e5 vara billigt, men du hade m\u00e5tt b\u00e4ttre utan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det du ist\u00e4llet kan leta efter \u00e4r de d\u00e4r kvalitetsbolagen som var f\u00f6r dyra under 2019 \u2013 2021, n\u00e4r v\u00e4rderingarna var galna. Vissa av de bolagen har g\u00e5tt \u00e5t skogen (d\u00e4r det var mycket snack och liten verkstad) medan andra faktiskt har g\u00e5tt bra verksamhetsm\u00e4ssigt, det \u00e4r bara hypen som \u00e4r \u00f6ver. Aktien har fallit och kanske handlas den \u00e4ntligen till rimligare niv\u00e5er. Det \u00e4r h\u00e4r vi hittar de riktiga fynden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kvalitetsbolagen jag t\u00e4nker p\u00e5 k\u00e4nnetecknas av strukturell tillv\u00e4xt i ryggen, det vill s\u00e4ga v\u00e4rlden r\u00f6r sig mot att just f\u00f6retagets produkter kommer att beh\u00f6vas mer de n\u00e4rmaste \u00e5ren. Helst ska bolaget vara marknadsledare inom sitt omr\u00e5de. Kassafl\u00f6det \u00e4r positivt och v\u00e4xer. Nettoskulds\u00e4ttningen \u00e4r l\u00e5g (<25 procent), kanske till och med nettokassa. N\u00e5gra sm\u00e5 skavanker kan t\u00e5las s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge delarna ovan h\u00e5ller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6r att dra reseparalleller igen, s\u00e5 kan ett s\u00e5dant bolag vara som att hitta en billig weekend till ett femstj\u00e4rnigt hotell i Lissabon. Det var visserligen billigare med den oisolerade stugan, men n\u00e4r du sitter med en nygr\u00e4ddad Pastel de Nata och utsikt \u00f6ver Atlanten \u00e5ngrar du dig inte ett enda dugg. Billigt \u00e4r inte l\u00e5ga priset man betalar, utan vad man f\u00e5r f\u00f6r pengarna.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00f6sten \u00e4r h\u00e4r och vi \u00e4r inne i andra halvan av 2023. Det har hittills varit ett skakigt \u00e5r med svagt positiv b\u00f6rs som idag \u00e4r upp runt 5 procent. Men, mer intressant \u00e4r fr\u00e5gan om hur man ska agera fram\u00f6ver; vad det \u00e4r bra att h\u00e5lla koll p\u00e5 i h\u00f6st? Om det skriver jag […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68573,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/1200x430_ara_blogg-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/1200x430_ara_blogg-150x54.png 150w, https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/1200x430_ara_blogg-620x222.png 620w, 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