{"id":77151,"date":"2023-08-23T13:15:08","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T11:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=77151"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:17:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:17:28","slug":"efter-hogre-rantor-ar-tina-pa-vag-att-bli-tia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/efter-hogre-rantor-ar-tina-pa-vag-att-bli-tia\/","title":{"rendered":"Efter h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor: \u00c4r TINA snart TIA?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Vilken l\u00e4gsta avkastning \u00e4r du beredd att acceptera i ett aktiek\u00f6p \u2013 n\u00e4r m\u00f6jligheten till riskfri avkastning \u00f6kar? I ett nytt r\u00e4ntel\u00e4ge \u00e4r fr\u00e5gan h\u00f6gst relevant. F\u00f6r i den h\u00e4r marknaden erbjuds investeraren alternativ. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fr\u00e5gan om risktagande, och vilken avkastning vi vill ha i utbyte f\u00f6r att ta just risk, l\u00e4r \u00f6ka i kraft. En vanligt modell f\u00f6r att r\u00e4kna p\u00e5 just risken i f\u00f6rh\u00e5llande till potentiell avkastning \u00e4r avkastningskravet. Det \u00e4r helt enkelt ett uttryck f\u00f6r den l\u00e4gsta avkastning en investerare kan acceptera f\u00f6r att genomf\u00f6ra ett tillg\u00e5ngsk\u00f6p, av exempelvis en aktie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Riskfria r\u00e4ntan \u00e4r grunden<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Kravet best\u00e5r enkelt uttryckt av den riskfria r\u00e4ntan plus en riskpremie. Riskpremien kan h\u00e4r best\u00e5 av b\u00e5de en generell riskpremie (marknadsrisk) och en f\u00f6retagsspecifik riskpremie. I vissa modeller r\u00e4knar man med beta, som anger ett instruments risk i f\u00f6rh\u00e5llande till marknaden i stort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e4g att den riskfria r\u00e4ntan \u00e4r 2 procent, allts\u00e5 att stabila statsobligationer ger 2 procent i r\u00e4nta, och att marknadens generella riskpremie \u00e4r 6 procent samtidigt som beta \u00e4r 1 procent. D\u00e4rtill finns en f\u00f6retagsspecifik risk p\u00e5 3 procent. D\u00e5 blir avkastningskravet:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Riskfri r\u00e4nta 2 procent + Beta 1 procent X marknadens generella riskpremie 6 % + f\u00f6retagsspecifik risk 3 % = 11 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elva procent \u00e4r allts\u00e5 den avkastning som kan accepteras som l\u00e4gst, f\u00f6r att risken ska vara beredd att ta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e4gre r\u00e4nta ger f\u00e4rre alternativ<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Under l\u00e5gr\u00e4nteperioden kunde dock \u00e4nnu l\u00e4gre avkastning accepteras, eftersom den riskfria r\u00e4ntan d\u00e5 kunde antas vara l\u00e4gre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no alternative, TINA, till aktiemarknaden, som det hette. En l\u00e4gre r\u00e4nta resulterade d\u00e4rmed i en \u00f6kad efterfr\u00e5gan p\u00e5 aktier<\/a>, vilket var vad vi s\u00e5g under l\u00e5gr\u00e4nteperioden. P\u00e5 s\u00e5 s\u00e4tt gynnades aktiemarknaden av l\u00e5g r\u00e4nta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu \u00e4r l\u00e4get annorlunda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den riskfria r\u00e4ntan \u2013 exempelvis den du kan f\u00e5 p\u00e5 svenska statsobligationer \u2013 ger nu mer. Numera f\u00e5r vi avkastning p\u00e5 r\u00e4nteb\u00e4rande placeringar, och alternativ som sparkonto, obligationer och r\u00e4ntefonder och \u00e4ven amortering blir \u00e4nnu mer attraktiva. Alternativkostnaden f\u00f6r att investera i aktier g\u00e5r upp. Maybe there is an alternative, TIA, allts\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad kan du f\u00e5 i en riskfri investering?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det g\u00e5r att f\u00e5 omkring 3,5 procent i r\u00e4nta p\u00e5 ett vanligt sparkonto utan att ens beh\u00f6va binda r\u00e4ntan. S\u00e5 l\u00e4nge det finns ins\u00e4ttningsgaranti \u00e4r det en riskfri investering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det kan s\u00e4ttas i relation till f\u00f6retagsobligationer. H\u00e4r \u00e4r f\u00f6rr\u00e4ntningstakten i f\u00f6retagsobligationsfonder f\u00f6rst\u00e5s olika beroende p\u00e5 risk (investment grade) eller high yield bl a), men en f\u00f6rr\u00e4ntningstakt p\u00e5 3.5-4 procent f\u00f6re avgift blir ju inte s\u00e5 v\u00e4ldigt attraktiv i ett l\u00e4ge d\u00e4r riskfria sparkontot ger n\u00e4stan lika mycket. Sj\u00e4lvklart finns de f\u00f6retagsobligationsfonder som ger mer, men d\u00e5 \u00e4r vi tillbaka p\u00e5 resonemanget om att risken ju \u00e4r betydligt h\u00f6gre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amortering har ocks\u00e5 \u00f6kat i attraktion, eftersom det \u00e4ven h\u00e4r handlar om en avkastning som f\u00e5s till betydligt risk \u00e4n p\u00e5 aktiemarknaden. Nu b\u00f6rjar den avkastningen str\u00e4va upp emot fem procent (f\u00f6re r\u00e4nteavdrag). Se g\u00e4rna mitt resonemang om att investera eller amortera h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Koll p\u00e5 durationen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Korta r\u00e4ntefonder har b\u00f6rjat r\u00f6ra p\u00e5 sig lite mer, \u00e5tminstone j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med den nollavkastning de gett under m\u00e5nga \u00e5r med l\u00e5g r\u00e4nta. Men h\u00e4r \u00e4r den s\u00e5 kallade durationen, r\u00e4nterisken, l\u00e5g. Det g\u00f6r att de korta r\u00e4ntefonderna inte p\u00e5verkas i s\u00e5 h\u00f6g utstr\u00e4ckning av f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringar i r\u00e4ntel\u00e4get.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntefonder har inte trivts i den upp\u00e5tg\u00e5ende r\u00e4ntetrenden. I dessa fonder<\/a> \u00e4r durationen h\u00f6g, obligationernas l\u00f6ptider \u00e4r l\u00e5nga. N\u00e4r marknadsr\u00e4ntorna stiger faller v\u00e4rdet p\u00e5 fondens innehav \u2013 obligationsfonderna faller. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu talas det om att r\u00e4ntetoppen \u00e4r n\u00e5dd. Det \u00e4r givetvis goda nyheter f\u00f6r aktiemarknaden, och det \u00e4r detta scenario som drog framf\u00f6r allt den amerikanska b\u00f6rsen<\/a> under sommaren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e4get kring r\u00e4ntan och inflationen \u00e4r dock fortfarande os\u00e4kert, men den dag vi st\u00e5r inf\u00f6r en r\u00e4ntenedg\u00e5ng kan obligationer med l\u00e4ngre l\u00f6ptider trivas bra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kanske kan det h\u00e4r fungera som en p\u00e5minnelse om r\u00e4ntans effekt p\u00e5 respektive tillg\u00e5ngar f\u00f6r den som \u00e4mnar se \u00f6ver sin portf\u00f6lj. Och kanske inneb\u00e4r det att devisen om en mix av tillg\u00e5ngsslag i portf\u00f6ljen, n\u00e4stintill h\u00e5nad under b\u00f6rsboomen, f\u00e5r en comeback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vilken l\u00e4gsta avkastning \u00e4r du beredd att acceptera i ett aktiek\u00f6p \u2013 n\u00e4r m\u00f6jligheten till riskfri avkastning \u00f6kar? I ett nytt r\u00e4ntel\u00e4ge \u00e4r fr\u00e5gan h\u00f6gst relevant. F\u00f6r i den h\u00e4r marknaden erbjuds investeraren alternativ. Fr\u00e5gan om risktagande, och vilken avkastning vi vill ha i utbyte f\u00f6r att ta just risk, l\u00e4r \u00f6ka i kraft. En […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[72],"class_list":["post-77151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser","tag-fonder"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/frida-blogg-banner-2-150x56.jpg","width":150,"height":56,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/frida-blogg-banner-2-150x56.jpg 150w, https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/frida-blogg-banner-2-620x233.jpg 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