{"id":77023,"date":"2023-08-28T13:09:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T11:09:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=77023"},"modified":"2026-03-04T16:26:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T15:26:30","slug":"det-avgor-din-ekonomi-i-host","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/det-avgor-din-ekonomi-i-host\/","title":{"rendered":"Det avg\u00f6r din ekonomi i h\u00f6st"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

R\u00e4ntebesked, h\u00f6stbudget, inflationssiffror och elpriserna. H\u00e4r \u00e4r som avg\u00f6r din ekonomi i h\u00f6st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflationen, och i f\u00f6rl\u00e4ngningen r\u00e4ntel\u00e4get, forts\u00e4tter att vara nyckeln b\u00e5de f\u00f6r ekonomin i stort men ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6r b\u00f6rsen<\/a> och d\u00e4rmed ocks\u00e5 ditt sparande. Men ocks\u00e5 annat p\u00e5verkar privatekonomin. H\u00e4r \u00e4r n\u00e5gra datum att h\u00e5lla ett extra \u00f6ga p\u00e5. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

8 september: Bostadsmarknaden<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hur g\u00e5r det egentligen p\u00e5 den svenska bostadsmarknaden? I juli f\u00f6ll priserna p\u00e5 bostadsr\u00e4tter med -1 procent, medan priserna p\u00e5 villor steg med 1 procent under m\u00e5naden. Priserna visar tecken p\u00e5 stabilisering, men kan ytterligare ras ligga i korten? Se mitt resonemang om bostadsmarknaden just nu h\u00e4r. Den 8 september kommer M\u00e4klarstatistik med uppgifter om priserna i augusti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

20 september: H\u00f6stbudgeten<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Linjen har hela tiden varit att man inte vill \u00f6sa p\u00e5 med stimulanser f\u00f6r att riskera att sp\u00e4 p\u00e5 inflationen, vilket har medf\u00f6rt n\u00e5got av en \u201dsvekdebatt\u201d kring regeringspartiernas l\u00f6ften i valr\u00f6relsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ett tydligt l\u00f6fte i Tid\u00f6avtalet var s\u00e4nkt skatt p\u00e5 sparande, via ett fribelopp motsvarande de f\u00f6rsta 300000 kronorna. Finns det vall\u00f6ftet med i h\u00f6stbudgeten? Regeringsf\u00f6retr\u00e4dare som Johan Pehrson (L) har dock sagt att han inte kommer kunna prioritera s\u00e4nkt skatt p\u00e5 sparande i nul\u00e4get. Partierna har \u00e5terkommande p\u00e5pekat att l\u00f6ftena i Tid\u00f6avtalet g\u00e4ller f\u00f6r hela mandatperioden. Om n\u00e5got har regeringen p\u00e5 skatteomr\u00e5det sagt sig vilja prioritera s\u00e4nkt skatt p\u00e5 arbete och pensioner via ett f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt jobbskatteavdrag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

20 september (och november, december): Fed-besked<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Samma dag som regeringen aviserar sin h\u00f6stbudget b\u00f6r alla b\u00f6rsintresserade spara ett visst fokus till kv\u00e4llen, svensk tid, d\u00e5 den amerikanska centralbanken aviserar sitt r\u00e4ntebesked. Vad Fed g\u00f6r med r\u00e4ntan \u00e4r trots allt det som framf\u00f6r allt styr b\u00f6rshum\u00f6ret numera. Framf\u00f6r allt julib\u00f6rsen drevs av tron p\u00e5 att r\u00e4ntetoppen har kommit, och den f\u00f6rhoppningen st\u00e4rktes n\u00e4r inflationssiffrorna f\u00f6r USA i juli visade just p\u00e5 en fortsatt fallande inflation. Fed har \u00e4ven m\u00f6te i november och december. Om f\u00f6rhoppningar om en r\u00e4ntetopp skulle komma att grusas l\u00e4r det s\u00e4tta avtryck p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen. Nervositeten har \u00f6kat de senaste veckorna. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

21 september (och november): Riksbanken ger r\u00e4ntebesked<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Riksbanken kommer med r\u00e4ntebesked i september, och mycket pekar p\u00e5 att det blir en h\u00f6jning p\u00e5 25 punkter till 4 procent. Inflationen faller visserligen generellt sett, men l\u00e5ngsamt. Erik Thed\u00e9en och direktionen anses inte ha tillr\u00e4ckligt med t\u00e5lamod f\u00f6r att v\u00e4nta in effekten av redan gjorda r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar, utan kommer att g\u00e5 p\u00e5 inkommande data. Och eftersom den datan visar att inflationen fortfarande ligger h\u00f6gt b\u00f6r vi v\u00e4nta oss en h\u00f6jning i september. En del bed\u00f6mare tror p\u00e5 \u00e4nnu en h\u00f6jning i november. Erik Thed\u00e9en l\u00e4r p\u00e5 presstr\u00e4ffen den 21 september forts\u00e4tta trycka p\u00e5 att inkommande data kommer att avg\u00f6ra Riksbankens agerande under h\u00f6sten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hugade bol\u00e5netagare l\u00e4r sucka \u00e5t att r\u00e4ntetoppen st\u00e4ndigt flyttas fram\u00e5t i tiden. Minst en h\u00f6jning till l\u00e4r det bli, vilket ocks\u00e5 b\u00f6r betyda att de r\u00f6rliga r\u00e4ntorna stiger lite till. Men banker och bol\u00e5neinstitut agerar olika, s\u00e5 det l\u00f6nar sig att h\u00e5lla koll p\u00e5 vilka som \u00e4r beredda att tumma lite p\u00e5 marginalerna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitten till slutet av oktober: Rapportperiod<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fr\u00e5n mitten av oktober till slutet av oktober bek\u00e4nner Stockholmsb\u00f6rsens j\u00e4ttar f\u00e4rg n\u00e4r rapportperioden f\u00f6r det tredje kvartalet r\u00e4mnar. Ser vi tydligare tecken p\u00e5 att l\u00e5gkonjunkturen \u00e4r h\u00e4r i ordering\u00e5ngarna? \u00c4r storbankernas r\u00e4ntenetton fortfarande lika starka eller var f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende kvartal \u201das good as it gets\u201d? Inflation och r\u00e4ntehum\u00f6ret styr visserligen b\u00f6rsen generellt, men den som \u00e4ger enskilda aktier<\/a> b\u00f6r h\u00e5lla koll. Den senaste rapportperioden bj\u00f6d p\u00e5 starka rapportreaktioner, och d\u00e4rmed m\u00f6jligheter att g\u00f6ra aff\u00e4rer f\u00f6r den som gjort l\u00e4xan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Svenska kronan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Andra faktorer \u00e4r bra att h\u00e5lla l\u00f6pande koll p\u00e5. En s\u00e5dan \u00e4r den svenska kronan. Den st\u00e4rktes visserligen mot dollarn n\u00e5got under sommaren, men \u00e4r fortfarande p\u00e5 en svag niv\u00e5. Argument som att den svenska statsskulden \u00e4r l\u00e5g och finanserna i ordning tycks bita f\u00f6ga p\u00e5 internationella investerare som skyr den svenska valutan. Den svenska fastighetsmarknaden och h\u00f6ga skulds\u00e4ttningen skr\u00e4mmer, och det finns p\u00e5 sina h\u00e5ll en tro att Riksbanken kommer beh\u00f6va avsluta r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningarna och b\u00f6rja s\u00e4nka tidigare \u00e4n andra centralbanker med anledning av den h\u00f6ga skulds\u00e4ttningen. Det g\u00f6r att kronan forts\u00e4tter att vara svag. Dessutom missgynnas den svenska kronan i egenskap av en liten valuta, n\u00e4r investerare g\u00e4rna vill ha trygghet. Svenska kronan har helt enkelt inte s\u00e4rskilt gott rykte internationellt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kina<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Kina \u00e4r v\u00e4rd en punkt f\u00f6r sig. Medan USA och Europa k\u00e4mpar mot h\u00f6g inflation har Kina drabbats av deflation. \u00c5ter\u00f6ppnandet efter pandemin har inte inneburit det uppsving f\u00f6r tillv\u00e4xten som m\u00e5nga hoppades p\u00e5. Dessutom skakar det p\u00e5 fastighetsj\u00e4tten igen. Vi minns alla turerna kring Evergrande, som skapade svallv\u00e5gor p\u00e5 v\u00e4rldens b\u00f6rser. Nu har en ny oro blossat upp, den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen f\u00f6r fastighetsj\u00e4tten Country Garden. Defintivt v\u00e4rt att h\u00e5lla \u00f6gonen p\u00e5. I bakgrunden finns ocks\u00e5 konflikten Kina-Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arbetsmarknaden<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Prognosen just nu \u00e4r en relativt mild l\u00e5gkonjunktur, och en ganska liten uppg\u00e5ng f\u00f6r arbetsl\u00f6sheten, trots raden av r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar. D\u00e4remot kommer det skilja stort mellan olika sektorer hur mycket l\u00e5gkonjunkturen sl\u00e5r. Byggindustrin kan f\u00e5 det tufft exempelvis, och delar av konsumentsektorn. F\u00f6rhoppningen \u00e4r f\u00f6rst\u00e5s att prognosen om en begr\u00e4nsad uppg\u00e5ng f\u00f6r arbetsl\u00f6sheten st\u00e5r sig. Om s\u00e5 inte \u00e4r fallet, och r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningarnas effekt kommer med en samlad eftersl\u00e4pning och sl\u00e5r h\u00e5rdare \u00e4n avsett, kan Riksbanken tvingas v\u00e4nda om tidigare \u00e4n man t\u00e4nkt och ist\u00e4llet s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad h\u00e5ller du koll p\u00e5 i h\u00f6st?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

R\u00e4ntebesked, h\u00f6stbudget, inflationssiffror och elpriserna. H\u00e4r \u00e4r som avg\u00f6r din ekonomi i h\u00f6st. Inflationen, och i f\u00f6rl\u00e4ngningen r\u00e4ntel\u00e4get, forts\u00e4tter att vara nyckeln b\u00e5de f\u00f6r ekonomin i stort men ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6r b\u00f6rsen och d\u00e4rmed ocks\u00e5 ditt sparande. Men ocks\u00e5 annat p\u00e5verkar privatekonomin. H\u00e4r \u00e4r n\u00e5gra datum att h\u00e5lla ett extra \u00f6ga p\u00e5. 8 september: Bostadsmarknaden Hur […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4764],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-female-network"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Frida-NFN-03-1200x430-1-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Frida-NFN-03-1200x430-1-150x54.png 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