Centralbanksbesked, sommarb\u00f6rs och semester. Ett flertal faktorer l\u00e4r p\u00e5verka pl\u00e5nboken i sommar. S\u00e5 h\u00e4r f\u00f6rbereder du privatekonomin f\u00f6r juni och f\u00f6r semestern. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
R\u00e4knar du ned veckorna? Snart \u00e4r sommaren h\u00e4r och d\u00e4rmed semestern. Men f\u00f6r pl\u00e5nboken forts\u00e4tter sommaren att bjuda p\u00e5 en rad h\u00e4ndelser av betydelse, semester eller ej. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I slutet av m\u00e5naden kommer Riksbankens r\u00e4ntebesked. Den r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning p\u00e5 0,25 procentenheter som tidigare s\u00e5g ut att vara skriven i sten \u00e4r inte l\u00e4ngre det. Detta efter att inflationen f\u00f6r april kommit in l\u00e4gre \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat och d\u00e4r s\u00e4rskilt den viktiga k\u00e4rninflationen (KPIFXE), det vill s\u00e4ga inflationen med b\u00e5de energipriser och effekter av r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar bortr\u00e4knade, v\u00e4nt ned. Det var viktigt. De l\u00e4gre r\u00e5varupriserna tycks \u00e4ntligen ha slagit igenom i alla led till butikshyllorna, och vi kunde nu exempelvis l\u00e4sa att priset p\u00e5 gurka nu fallit med 30 procent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Inflationssiffran f\u00f6r april g\u00f6r att allt fler r\u00f6ster h\u00f6js f\u00f6r att Riksbanken nu b\u00f6r kunna avvakta med fler r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar, och v\u00e4nta in effekterna av redan gjorda h\u00f6jningar. Men vi hinner f\u00e5 en till inflationssiffra innan Riksbanken ska ta sitt beslut. Det g\u00e4ller att inflationssiffran f\u00f6r maj bekr\u00e4ftar den ned\u00e5tg\u00e5ende trenden f\u00f6r k\u00e4rninflationen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Om inte det h\u00e4nder l\u00e4r Erik Thed\u00e9en komma med en r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning den 29 juni. Men det ska p\u00e5pekas att den r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningen kan komma i vilket fall, mot bakgrund av hur tonl\u00e4get har varit fr\u00e5n Brunkebergstorg. Visserligen var man inte enig i direktionen senast, men Erik Thed\u00e9en har l\u00e5tit mycket fast besluten om att inflationen m\u00e5ste pressas tillbaka \u00e4ven om det kostar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bankerna har nu en efter en h\u00f6jt sina bol\u00e5ner\u00e4ntor i den senaste r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningens sp\u00e5r. H\u00f6jer Riksbanken r\u00e4ntan med 25 punkter i juni l\u00e4r en bra, f\u00f6rhandlad snittr\u00e4nta ligga p\u00e5 4 procent eller n\u00e5gra tiondelar \u00f6ver det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Men den som funderar p\u00e5 att binda r\u00e4ntan kan ha lite is i magen och samtidigt \u00f6ron och \u00f6gon \u00f6ppna den 14 juni. D\u00e5 kommer den amerikanska centralbanken Fed med sitt r\u00e4ntebesked och d\u00e5 f\u00e5r vi reda p\u00e5 om man forts\u00e4tter h\u00f6ja med 25 punkter eller om man nu tar paus. De flesta bed\u00f6mare \u00e4r \u00f6verens om att h\u00f6jningarna nu har f\u00e5tt effekt p\u00e5 amerikansk ekonomi och diskussionen kretsar kring hur djup den amerikanska l\u00e5gkonjunkturen egentligen kommer att bli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
F\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar om l\u00e4gre r\u00e4ntor g\u00f6r att marknadsr\u00e4ntorna pressats ned\u00e5t, och det p\u00e5verkar r\u00e4ntes\u00e4ttningen p\u00e5 bundna bol\u00e5n. De bundna bol\u00e5ner\u00e4ntorna har redan fallit tillbaka marginellt, men kan forts\u00e4tta g\u00f6ra det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00e4r v\u00e5r g\u00e5r \u00f6ver i sommar och semestertider tar vid brukar ocks\u00e5 handelsvolymerna p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen avta. D\u00e4rmed \u00f6kar traditionellt ocks\u00e5 risken f\u00f6r h\u00f6g volatilitet \u2013 sm\u00e5 bolagsh\u00e4ndelser kan f\u00e5 stora kurseffekter. Att m\u00e5nga akt\u00f6rer p\u00e5 marknaden tar ledigt st\u00e4mmer, men det faktum att aktiva privatsparare kan g\u00f6ra sina aff\u00e4rer fr\u00e5n stranden, h\u00e4ngmattan eller b\u00e5ten g\u00f6r att m\u00e5nga av dem ocks\u00e5 kan nyttja volatiliteten till sin f\u00f6rdel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
B\u00f6rsen \u00e4r redan en os\u00e4ker plats, b\u00e5de till sin natur och det faktum att vi har f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningar inprisade samtidigt som l\u00e5gkonjunkturen blir allt mer tydlig. Om inte r\u00e4ntes\u00e4nkningarna blir av l\u00e4r det bli oroligt p\u00e5 marknaderna. D\u00e4rtill kan f\u00f6rst\u00e5s ocks\u00e5 n\u00e5got ov\u00e4ntat ske under sommarm\u00e5naderna \u2013 de \u00e4r till och med att r\u00e4kna med. Dessa \u00e4r f\u00f6rst\u00e5s sv\u00e5ra att f\u00f6rbereda sig p\u00e5. Kanske handlar det om att vara f\u00f6rberedd genom att ha g\u00e5tt igenom dina innehav en extra g\u00e5ng f\u00f6r att kunna agera i dem eller i andra aktier om stora r\u00f6relser uppst\u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Om det gamla r\u00e5det \u201dK\u00f6p till sillen och s\u00e4lj till kr\u00e4ftorna\u201d funkar? Det \u00e4r faktiskt lite oklart hur det h\u00e4r r\u00e5det uppstod. Det g\u00e5r ju tv\u00e4rs emot \u201dSell in May and go away\u201d, som verkar ha mer f\u00f6rankring i verkligheten \u2013 det vill s\u00e4ga att b\u00f6rsen historiskt sett g\u00e5r svagare under sommaren \u00e4n under vinterhalv\u00e5ret. Kanske funkade det f\u00f6rr, p\u00e5 80- och 90-talen – d\u00e5 handeln var mer regional. D\u00e5 var det kanske m\u00f6jligt f\u00f6r Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen att ha ett helt eget handelsm\u00f6nster. Jag skulle s\u00e4ga att de gamla taless\u00e4tten \u00e4r just gamla, och inget att satsa sina sparpengar p\u00e5. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c4r man en l\u00e5ngsiktig sparare spelar allt detta mindre roll. Forts\u00e4tt m\u00e5nadsspara som vanligt, \u00e4ven om ov\u00e4ntade h\u00e4ndelser och kortsiktiga upp- eller nedg\u00e5ngar uppst\u00e5r medan du ligger i h\u00e4ngmattan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kanske b\u00f6rjar nu ocks\u00e5 nedr\u00e4kningen till en eventuell semesterresa. Ha i \u00e5tanke att den svenska kronan \u00e4r rekordsvag. Den som \u00e5ker utomlands g\u00f6r klokt i att ta h\u00f6jd f\u00f6r att semesterkassan numera inte r\u00e4cker lika l\u00e5ngt, varken i Europa eller USA. P\u00e5 ett \u00e5r har b\u00e5de euron och dollarn st\u00e4rkts med 10 procent mot kronan. I ett l\u00e4ngre perspektiv \u00e4r kronf\u00f6rsvagningen massiv. De enda valutorna som f\u00f6rsvagats mot kronan det senaste \u00e5ret \u00e4r den norska kronan, den ryska rubeln \u2013 och den turkiska liran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Att semestra p\u00e5 hemmaplan \u00e4r f\u00f6rst\u00e5s ett s\u00e4tt att inte drabbas av denna negativa valutaeffekt. \u00c5 andra sidan kan semesterutgifterna komma att k\u00e4nnas rej\u00e4lt i pl\u00e5nboken \u00e4nd\u00e5, med r\u00e4ntor och h\u00f6ga matpriser som pressar pl\u00e5nboken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Det kan allts\u00e5 bli en tuff privatekonomisk sommar f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga svenskar, som kan kr\u00e4va b\u00e5de omprioriteringar och nya tankes\u00e4tt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
B\u00e5de maj och juni handlar f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga om firanden och festligheter – skolavslutningar, studentmottagningar, br\u00f6llop eller andra sammankomster. Den som anordnar en mottagning vet att det kan kosta<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Centralbanksbesked, sommarb\u00f6rs och semester. Ett flertal faktorer l\u00e4r p\u00e5verka pl\u00e5nboken i sommar. S\u00e5 h\u00e4r f\u00f6rbereder du privatekonomin f\u00f6r juni och f\u00f6r semestern. R\u00e4knar du ned veckorna? Snart \u00e4r sommaren h\u00e4r och d\u00e4rmed semestern. Men f\u00f6r pl\u00e5nboken forts\u00e4tter sommaren att bjuda p\u00e5 en rad h\u00e4ndelser av betydelse, semester eller ej. Centralbanksbesked I slutet av m\u00e5naden kommer […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4053],"tags":[72],"class_list":["post-76335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-privatekonomi","tag-fonder"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Frida-NFN-01-1200x430-1-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Frida-NFN-01-1200x430-1-150x54.png 150w, 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