{"id":75122,"date":"2023-03-06T13:36:12","date_gmt":"2023-03-06T12:36:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=75122"},"modified":"2026-03-10T16:39:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:39:04","slug":"infor-borsmanaden-mars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/infor-borsmanaden-mars\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00e5ll dig uppdaterad, vad h\u00e4nder i Mars?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

R\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar, en inflation som tycks h\u00e4nga sig kvar – en os\u00e4ker makroekonomisk framtid helt enkelt. Svenska b\u00f6rsen klamrar sig fast, dock \u00e4r det kanske inte helt konstigt d\u00e5 det \u00e4r mycket bank p\u00e5 OMXS30 som trivs bra n\u00e4r r\u00e4ntorna traskar upp\u00e5t. Mars m\u00e5nad kan bli en sp\u00e4nnande b\u00f6rsm\u00e5nad helt klart, men l\u00e5t oss f\u00f6rst kika p\u00e5 hur b\u00f6rsen gick under februari m\u00e5nad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Februari m\u00e5nad b\u00f6rjade starkt, men till slut blev det en m\u00e5nad med sidledes r\u00f6relser f\u00f6r framf\u00f6rallt OMXSPI och DAX. Nasdaq gick svagare under februari m\u00e5nad och slutade ner drygt 3%. En bidragande faktor till att Nasdaq utvecklades s\u00e5 svagt \u00e4r r\u00e4ntans uppg\u00e5ng under m\u00e5naden, l\u00e5t oss titta p\u00e5 hur r\u00e4ntorna g\u00e5tt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e4ntor i fokus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e4ntorna l\u00e4r fortsatt vara i fokus f\u00f6r b\u00f6rsen fram\u00f6ver, vi har r\u00e4ntebesked fr\u00e5n b\u00e5de FED och ECB under mars m\u00e5nad. ECB v\u00e4ntas komma med r\u00e4ntebesked den 16 mars och FED den 22 mars. Under m\u00e5ndagen s\u00e5 sade en av ECBs ledam\u00f6ter, Robert Holzmann, till tyska aff\u00e4rstidningen Handelsblatt <\/a>att han vill se dubbelh\u00f6jningar fr\u00e5n ECB de kommande fyra<\/em> m\u00f6tena. R\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningscykeln k\u00e4nns l\u00e5ngt ifr\u00e5n f\u00e4rdig, iallafall f\u00f6r ECB. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Efter mer ih\u00e5llande inflation \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat s\u00e5 har b\u00e5de r\u00e4ntorna och f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntingarna p\u00e5 r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar stigit i USA. 10-\u00e5rsr\u00e4ntorna steg med n\u00e4stan 50 baspunkter under februari m\u00e5nad, en uppg\u00e5ng om drygt 16%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hur ser det ut p\u00e5 hemmaplan? Inflationen h\u00e5ller sig fortfarande p\u00e5 h\u00f6ga niv\u00e5er, framf\u00f6rallt den underliggande inflationen som kommer in h\u00f6gre \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat. Ett rej\u00e4lt huvudbry f\u00f6r den nya riksbankschefen Erik Thed\u00e9en. Matpriserna har under februari m\u00e5nad fortsatt stiga, priserna steg i helhet med 2,5% under m\u00e5naden enligt Matpriskollens statistik. Bland produkterna som steg mest \u00e5terfinns bland annat paprika vars priser steg med 26.5% och tomater som steg med 14.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Med inflationen som vi har nu, l\u00e4r vi se ett antal r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar till fr\u00e5n Riksbanken, de l\u00e4r h\u00f6ja minst 50 bps vid n\u00e4sta m\u00f6te i april om inte inflationen tar en skarp v\u00e4ndning ned\u00e5t innan m\u00f6tet. Dock brukar inte centralbanker agera p\u00e5 enskilda m\u00e4tningar, utan de vill se en l\u00e4ngre trend i inflationsutvecklingen, s\u00e5 jag tror att vi kan v\u00e4nta oss 50 bps. Exempelvis var Handelsbanken ute under m\u00e5ndagen och skruvade upp r\u00e4nteprognosen rej\u00e4lt, banken sp\u00e5r en trippelh\u00f6jning i april och en r\u00e4ntetopp p\u00e5 4.25%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tittar vi p\u00e5 r\u00e4nteterminerna s\u00e5 priss\u00e4tter marknaden h\u00f6jningar om minst 100 bps totalt innan Riksbanken \u00e4r klara, en dubbelh\u00f6jning i april f\u00f6ljt av ytterligare en h\u00f6jning i november. Som du kan se nedan har r\u00e4ntorna redan tagit rej\u00e4la kliv upp\u00e5t under februari m\u00e5nad. \u00c4ven Svenska 2-\u00e5rsr\u00e4ntan tog kliv upp\u00e5t under februari, r\u00e4ntan var i slutet p\u00e5 m\u00e5naden 3,25%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Intressanta makroh\u00e5llpunkter under mars<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e5 rapports\u00e4songen klingat av f\u00f6r denna g\u00e5ng l\u00e4r fokus \u00e5terigen hamna fullt ut p\u00e5 det makroekonomiska l\u00e4get. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r<\/strong><\/td>Vad<\/strong><\/td>Estimat<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
6 mars<\/td>Eurozonen: Detaljhandelsf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning <\/td>Y\/Y: -1.8%<\/td><\/tr>
7 mars<\/td>Tyskland: Industriorder<\/td>M\/M: -1.0%<\/td><\/tr>
8 mars<\/td>Eurozonen: BNP<\/td>Y\/Y: 1.8%<\/td><\/tr>
8 mars<\/td>Kanada: R\u00e4ntebesked<\/td>4.5%<\/td><\/tr>
9 mars<\/td>Sverige: BNP<\/td>M\/M: -0.6%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Sverige: Hush\u00e5llens konsumption<\/td>Y\/Y: -2.3%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Sverige: Industriproduktion<\/td>Y\/Y: -2.0%<\/td><\/tr>
10 mars<\/td>Tyskland: CPI<\/td>Y\/Y: 8.7%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Tyskland: HICP<\/td>Y\/Y: 9.3%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Storbritannien: BNP<\/td>Y\/Y: -0.1%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Norge: KPI<\/td>Y\/Y: 6.7%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Norge: K\u00e4rn-KPI<\/td>Y\/Y: 6.4%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: Non-farm Payrolls<\/td>+200 000<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: Average earnings<\/td>M\/M: 0.3% Y\/Y: 4.7%<\/td><\/tr>
13 mars<\/td>Sverige: SEB Husprisindex<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
14 mars<\/td>USA: KPI<\/td>M\/M: 0.4%<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: K\u00e4rn-KPI<\/td>M\/M: 0.4%<\/td><\/tr>
15 mars<\/td>Sverige: KPI<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Eurozonen: Industriproduktion<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: Detaljhandelsf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: PPI<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
16 mars<\/td>Sverige: Penningmarknadens inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>ECB: R\u00e4ntebesked<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
17 mars<\/td>Eurozonen: HICP<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: Industriproduktion<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
20 mars<\/td>Tyskland: PPI<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
21 mars<\/td>Tyskland: ZEW Ekonomiskt sentiment<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
22 mars<\/td>Storbritannien: KPI<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Storbritannien: PPI<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: R\u00e4ntebesked<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
23 mars<\/td>Norge: R\u00e4ntebesked<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Eurozonen: Konsumentkonfidens<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Storbritannien: R\u00e4ntebesked<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
24 mars<\/td>Tyskland: PMI<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Eurozonen: PMI<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: PMI<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
27 mars<\/td>Tyskland: IFO-statistik<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
28 mars<\/td>USA: Konsumentkonfidens<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
29 mars<\/td>Sverige: Sentimentsindikatorer<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Sverige: Detaljhandelsf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
30 mars<\/td>USA: BNP<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Tyskland: KPI prelimin\u00e4r<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
31 mars<\/td>Tyskland: Detaljhandelsf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Tyskland: Importpriser<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Danmark: BNP<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Storbritannien: BNP<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Eurozonen: KPI<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: PCE\/Core PCE<\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
Kom ih\u00e5g att estimat kan f\u00f6r\u00e4ndras och att estimaten som \u00e4r med i blogginl\u00e4gget \u00e4r fr\u00e5n dagens datum.
Estimat fr\u00e5n Infront & Refinitiv Eikon.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rutom h\u00e4r p\u00e5 bloggen, s\u00e5 hittar du mig p\u00e5 Twitter (www.twitter.com\/nordnetaxel<\/a>) d\u00e4r jag l\u00f6pande l\u00e4gger ut liknande relevanta grejer under veckorna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad skulle du vilja se f\u00f6r inneh\u00e5ll i dena m\u00e5natliga uppdatering? Kommentera g\u00e4rna nedan!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lycka till med din handel i mars!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

R\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar, en inflation som tycks h\u00e4nga sig kvar – en os\u00e4ker makroekonomisk framtid helt enkelt. Svenska b\u00f6rsen klamrar sig fast, dock \u00e4r det kanske inte helt konstigt d\u00e5 det \u00e4r mycket bank p\u00e5 OMXS30 som trivs bra n\u00e4r r\u00e4ntorna traskar upp\u00e5t. Mars m\u00e5nad kan bli en sp\u00e4nnande b\u00f6rsm\u00e5nad helt klart, men l\u00e5t oss f\u00f6rst kika […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40154,"featured_media":75049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/1200x430_axel_blogg_1-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/1200x430_axel_blogg_1-150x54.png 150w, 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