{"id":74359,"date":"2023-01-24T11:15:06","date_gmt":"2023-01-24T10:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=74359"},"modified":"2026-03-10T17:13:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:13:34","slug":"genomgang-sa-lange-varar-borsnedgangar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/genomgang-sa-lange-varar-borsnedgangar\/","title":{"rendered":"Genomg\u00e5ng: S\u00e5 l\u00e4nge varar b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ngar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Medan 2022 blev ett uselt b\u00f6rs\u00e5r har 2023 startat med raketfart. Men h\u00e5ller uppg\u00e5ngen i sig? Hur vanligt \u00e4r det egentligen att b\u00f6rsen ger minusavkastning tv\u00e5 \u00e5r i rad? Och vad kan vi l\u00e4ra oss genom att titta p\u00e5 fler\u00e5riga b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ngar i historien?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jag har tittat p\u00e5 Stockholmsb\u00f6rsens utveckling historiskt f\u00f6r att se om det g\u00e5r att dra n\u00e5gra slutsatser kring hur l\u00e5ngvarigt ett b\u00f6rsfall kan t\u00e4nkas bli. I vanlig ordning kan inte historien ber\u00e4tta f\u00f6r oss exakt vad framtiden kan komma att bjuda p\u00e5, men den kan vara en indikation och en pusselbit som l\u00e4r oss n\u00e5got om hur aktiemarknaden brukar agera.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Att krig \u00e4r d\u00e5ligt ur alla t\u00e4nkbara perspektiv vet vi, och vem som helst kan r\u00e4kna ut att n\u00e5got s\u00e5 kapitalf\u00f6rst\u00f6rande som krig ocks\u00e5 \u00e4r d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6r aktiemarknaden. Men som jag konstaterade i det h\u00e4r inl\u00e4gget<\/a> s\u00e5 kan \u00e4ven en geopolitisk kris ha en relativt \u00f6verg\u00e5ende p\u00e5verkan p\u00e5 aktiemarknaden. Skillnaden \u00e4r om en geopolitisk kris av n\u00e5got slag kommer samtidigt med andra negativa makroh\u00e4ndelser \u2013 d\u00e5 kan nedg\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen vara under l\u00e4ngre tid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De mest l\u00e5ngvariga nedg\u00e5ngarna<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r vi tittar historiskt kan vi summera ett antal kriser som haft en fler\u00e5rigt negativ inverkan p\u00e5 aktiemarknaden. Jag listar dem nedan, men vi kan konstatera att hyperinflationen i b\u00f6rjan av 1920-talet och depressionen p\u00e5 1930-talet spelar i en egen liga med fem respektive fyra minus\u00e5r f\u00f6r Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen p\u00e5 varandra. D\u00e4refter \u00e4r it-bubblan den mest l\u00e5ngvariga nedg\u00e5ngsperioden, d\u00e5 vi fick minusavkastning fem \u00e5r i rad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ofta snabb \u00e5terh\u00e4mtning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Men det \u00e4r faktiskt sl\u00e5ende hur mycket stora negativa h\u00e4ndelser i omv\u00e4rlden under historien visserligen resulterat i b\u00f6rsfall, men faktiskt inte s\u00e5 l\u00e5ngvariga s\u00e5dan. Under andra v\u00e4rldskriget uppvisade Stockholmb\u00f6rsen faktiskt bara ett minus\u00e5r, och inte heller under oljekrisen p\u00e5 1970-talet f\u00f6ljde tv\u00e5 minus\u00e5r p\u00e5 varandra. M\u00e5nga stora nedg\u00e5ngar har faktiskt v\u00e4nt inom 12-18 m\u00e5nader historiskt sett. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad man kan konstatera \u00e4r att \u00e4ven efter perioder med fler\u00e5rig minusavkastning s\u00e5 bjuder det f\u00f6rsta plus\u00e5ret efter nedg\u00e5ngen inte s\u00e4llan p\u00e5 en kraftig tv\u00e5siffrig \u00e5terh\u00e4mtning. Ett f\u00e4rskare exempel \u00e4r uppg\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 \u00f6ver 40 procent \u00e5r 2009. Men vi s\u00e5g ocks\u00e5 flera \u00e5r av kraftig \u00e5terh\u00e4mtning efter s\u00e5v\u00e4l it-bubblan som efter hyperinflationen och massarbetsl\u00f6sheten i b\u00f6rjan av 1920-talet (den g\u00e5ngen gick riskaptiten dock \u00f6verstyr vilket resulterade i kraschen i slutet av decenniet). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e5 har b\u00f6rsen gett fler\u00e5rig miusavkastning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e4r \u00e4r tillf\u00e4llena under denna period som b\u00f6rsen g\u00e5tt ned mer \u00e4n tv\u00e5 \u00e5r i rad<\/strong>, sedan b\u00f6rjan av 1900-talet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

1913 och 1914: Krigsoro i Europa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vi kan se att f\u00f6rsta g\u00e5ngen som indexet f\u00f6ll i tv\u00e5 \u00e5r efter varandra \u00e4r 1913 och 1914. Just det, f\u00f6rsta v\u00e4rldskrigets utbrott. Den internationella oron och risken f\u00f6r att \u00e4ven Sverige skulle dras in i kriget fick aktierna noterade p\u00e5 Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen p\u00e5 fall, enligt boken Det svenska n\u00e4ringslivets historia (avsnitt skrivet av professor Mats Larsson vid Uppsala universitet). B\u00f6rsen rentav st\u00e4ngde i tre m\u00e5nader under 2014, och \u00e4ven in i 2015 till\u00e4mpades begr\u00e4nsade \u00f6ppettider. Men i takt med att risken f\u00f6r att Sverige skulle dras med i kriget minskade s\u00e5 kom en v\u00e4ndning. I slutet av 1915 var kurserna p\u00e5 samma niv\u00e5 som vid toppen 1912.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1913: -7,6 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1914: -31 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1919-1923: Hyperinflation och l\u00e5gkonjunktur<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En nedg\u00e5ng som varade i hela fem \u00e5r p\u00e5 rad intr\u00e4ffade 1919 till 1923. Det h\u00e4r var under samma tid som Tyskland drabbades av hyperinflation, som svar p\u00e5 frenetiskt arbetande sedelpressar n\u00e4r det utd\u00f6mda krigsskadest\u00e5ndet efter f\u00f6rsta v\u00e4rldskriget skulle betalas. Men det var inte bara i Tyskland man hade h\u00f6g inflation \u2013 det hade man \u00e4ven i l\u00e4nder som \u00d6sterrike, Polen, Ungern, Frankrike, Belgien och Italien. I USA, men ocks\u00e5 Sverige, inleddes en l\u00e5gkonjunktur i b\u00f6rjan av 20-talet med h\u00f6g arbetsl\u00f6shet, vilket ocks\u00e5 \u00e4r en f\u00f6rklaring till de dystra b\u00f6rs\u00e5ren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men bara n\u00e5gra \u00e5r in p\u00e5 1920-talet inleddes eran \u201ddet glada 20-talet med h\u00f6gkonjunktur \u2013 men ocks\u00e5 \u00f6kad bel\u00e5ning och spekulation. En l\u00e5nefinansierad b\u00f6rsuppg\u00e5ng f\u00f6ljde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1919: -19,3 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1920: -21 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1921: -27,8 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1922: -8,7 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1923: -8,6 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1929-1932: Den stora depressionen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r den omtalade stora b\u00f6rskraschen, \u201dsvarta torsdagen\u201d, kom den 24 oktober 1929 i New York var den amerikanska konjunkturen redan p\u00e5 nedg\u00e5ng, enligt en artikel skriven i tidsskriften Ekonomisk debatt av Claes-Henric Siven, professor emeritus i nationalekonomi vid Stockholms universitet. Flera \u00e5r av djup l\u00e5gkonjunktur, massarbetsl\u00f6shet och depression f\u00f6ljde. P\u00e5 Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen blev det rej\u00e4la b\u00f6rsras hela fyra \u00e5r i rad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1929: -9,4 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1930: – 14,6 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1931: -40 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1932: -27 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1947-1948: Efterkrigsoro<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen rasade n\u00e4r andra v\u00e4rldskriget br\u00f6t ut i samband med att Tyskland invaderade Polen. Vid 1939 \u00e5rs slut summerades nedg\u00e5ngen till -29 procent. Men det blev faktiskt bara ett minus\u00e5r under sj\u00e4lva kriget. Efterkrigstiden pr\u00e4glades dock av oro f\u00f6r att v\u00e4rldens skulle f\u00e5 uppleva en l\u00e5gkonjunktur likt den i b\u00f6rjan av 1930-talet, vilket gav tv\u00e5 minus\u00e5r 1947 och 1948. B\u00f6rsen b\u00f6rjade inte g\u00e5 bra igen f\u00f6rr\u00e4n omkring 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1947: -7,4 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1948: -6,5 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1955-1956: Vietnamkrig och inflation <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6g inflation, h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor \u2013 och s\u00e5 Vietnamkriget. Det var ingen bra cocktail f\u00f6r den amerikanska b\u00f6rsen, och s\u00e5ledes inte heller f\u00f6r Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen. Men j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med andra l\u00e5ngvariga urbl\u00e5sningar p\u00e5 Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen innebar \u00e5ren 1955-1956 bara en mild nedg\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1955: -6,5 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1956: -2 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

961-1962: Kalla kriget ger b\u00f6rsen kalla k\u00e5rar <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e4r blev det p\u00e5 marginalen tv\u00e5 b\u00f6rs\u00e5r med minusavkastning efter varandra, eftersom b\u00f6rsen gick bra under stora delar av 1961, men b\u00f6rjade g\u00e5 d\u00e5ligt mot slutet av \u00e5ret. Sp\u00e4nningarna mellan de tv\u00e5 supermakterna USA och Sovjet enorma, och kulmen n\u00e5ddes 1962. Krigsoron var st\u00e4ndigt n\u00e4rvarande och det pressade v\u00e4rldens b\u00f6rser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1961: -0,6 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1962: -8,4 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2000, 2001 och 2002: It-bubblan spricker <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Trots att Stockholmsb\u00f6rsen bj\u00f6d p\u00e5 rej\u00e4la urbl\u00e5sningar i samband med oljekrisen p\u00e5 1970-talet och, inte minst, bank- och kronkrisen i b\u00f6rjan av 1990-talet, s\u00e5 gav dessa kriser faktiskt inte upphov till tv\u00e5 p\u00e5 varandra efterf\u00f6ljande \u00e5r av minusavkastning. Vi f\u00e5r faktiskt v\u00e4nta \u00e4nda tills it-kraschen i b\u00f6rjan av 00-talet innan det sker, men d\u00e5 sker det \u00e5 andra sidan med besked. Tre \u00e5r i rad gick b\u00f6rsen med minus \u2013 med kulmen i och med den 37-procentiga nedg\u00e5ngen 2002. Men 2003 var b\u00f6rsen upp med n\u00e4stan 30 procent och \u00e4ven 2005 och 2006 bj\u00f6d p\u00e5 avkastning relativt n\u00e4ra respektive \u00f6ver 30 procent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2000: – 12 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2001: – 16,7 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2002: – 37 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2007-2008: Finanskrisen <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det h\u00e4r var \u00e5ren d\u00e5 vi l\u00e4rde oss begreppen \u201dsubprime-l\u00e5n\u201d. L\u00e5nen \u00e4r s\u00e5dana som gavs till amerikanska bostadsk\u00f6pare med l\u00e5g kreditv\u00e4rdighet, som sedan inte kunde betala sina r\u00e4ntor och amorteringar. Detta satte ig\u00e5ng en l\u00e5ng kedja av os\u00e4kerhet i finansbranschen, d\u00e4r ingen visste vilken bank som satt med de \u201dd\u00e5liga l\u00e5nen\u201d. Det hela mynnade ut i en global finanskris och p\u00e5 b\u00f6rserna var det fritt fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2007: -6,8 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2008: -42 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u00e4lla: Aff\u00e4rsv\u00e4rldens generalindex AFGX<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\/Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Medan 2022 blev ett uselt b\u00f6rs\u00e5r har 2023 startat med raketfart. Men h\u00e5ller uppg\u00e5ngen i sig? Hur vanligt \u00e4r det egentligen att b\u00f6rsen ger minusavkastning tv\u00e5 \u00e5r i rad? Och vad kan vi l\u00e4ra oss genom att titta p\u00e5 fler\u00e5riga b\u00f6rsnedg\u00e5ngar i historien? Jag har tittat p\u00e5 Stockholmsb\u00f6rsens utveckling historiskt f\u00f6r att se om det […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[72],"class_list":["post-74359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser","tag-fonder"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/frida-glad-blogg-150x56.jpg","width":150,"height":56,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/frida-glad-blogg-150x56.jpg 150w, 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