{"id":74309,"date":"2023-02-01T10:50:57","date_gmt":"2023-02-01T09:50:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/?p=74309"},"modified":"2026-03-10T16:39:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T15:39:04","slug":"infor-borsmanaden-februari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.se\/blogg\/infor-borsmanaden-februari\/","title":{"rendered":"Inf\u00f6r b\u00f6rsm\u00e5naden – februari."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Inf\u00f6r februari m\u00e5nad har vi en b\u00f6rs som b\u00f6rjat \u00e5ret starkt. I skrivande stund \u00e4r OMXSPI upp knappt 8% f\u00f6r \u00e5ret, en uppg\u00e5ng om runt 20% fr\u00e5n l\u00e4gstanoteringen i slutet p\u00e5 september f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. Kikar vi p\u00e5 andra index s\u00e5 ser vi att tyska DAX b\u00f6jat \u00e5ret lite b\u00e4ttre och Nasdaq klart starkast. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00f6rsuppg\u00e5ngen kanske inte har tagits emot v\u00e4l av alla marknadsdeltagare med tanke p\u00e5 hur l\u00e4get \u00e4r i m\u00e5nga ekonomier runt om i v\u00e4rlden, men b\u00f6rsen \u00e4r (ska vara) fram\u00e5tblickande och h\u00e4r \u00e4r vi nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Inflation i fokus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Inflationen har som, s\u00e4kert m\u00e5nga inte missat, varit i stort fokus senaste tiden. Mycket av problemet kring den h\u00f6ga inflationen \u00e4r att det \u00e4r\/har varit ett utbudsproblem och inte efterfr\u00e5gan. Detta \u00e4r n\u00e5got som \u00e4r sv\u00e5rt att motverka med de generellt tillg\u00e4ngliga verktygen som normalt anv\u00e4nds f\u00f6r att st\u00e4vja inflationen, exempelvis h\u00f6jd r\u00e4nta. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Centralbankerna har inte haft s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga val, utan har tightat till sina r\u00e4ntepolicys rej\u00e4lt. Genom att h\u00f6ja r\u00e4ntan r\u00e4knar man med att st\u00e4vja inflationen genom att d\u00f6da efterfr\u00e5gan, som egentligen inte \u00e4r det huvudsakliga problemet. Risken blir s\u00e5 klart att en recession skapas, fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r fr\u00e4mst hur djup den blir, om det nu blir n\u00e5gon alls. I den senate prognosen fr\u00e5n Tyskland<\/a>, v\u00e4ntas det nu inte bli n\u00e5gon recession alls, till skillnad fr\u00e5n h\u00f6stens prognos som pekade p\u00e5 en minskning av BNP med 0.4% under 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enligt grafiken nedan ser vi hur inflationen ser ut att ha toppat och \u00e5ter v\u00e4nt ned\u00e5t i Eurozonen, USA och i Tyskland. M\u00e5nga faktorer som p\u00e5verkar inflationen i Europa har r\u00f6rt sig \u00e5t det positivare h\u00e5llet. Exempelvis har energipriser<\/a> kommit ner en hel del, bra lagerniv\u00e5er f\u00f6r gas<\/a> och sjunkande oljepriser<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hur ser det ut i Sverige d\u00e5? Ja, vi har inte riktigt \u00e4nnu sett att inflationen har v\u00e4nt ner p\u00e5 samma s\u00e4tt som i andra l\u00e4nder. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4sta v\u00e4nda av siffror fr\u00e5n Sverige f\u00e5r vi f\u00f6rst den 20 februari.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Centralbankerna och r\u00e4ntor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fr\u00e5n inflationsdata s\u00e5 blir en \u00f6verg\u00e5ng till att prata om r\u00e4ntor naturlig, styrr\u00e4ntorna fr\u00e5n centralbankerna runt om i v\u00e4rlden \u00e4r klart i fokus just nu. R\u00e4ntorna har, som m\u00e5nga s\u00e4rkert inte missat, h\u00f6jts rej\u00e4lt den senaste tiden, och enligt centralbankerna sj\u00e4lva ser h\u00f6jningscykeln inte ut att vara klar riktigt \u00e4nnu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Centralbank<\/td>Nuvarande r\u00e4nta<\/td>R\u00e4nta f\u00f6r ett \u00e5r sedan<\/td><\/tr>
Riksbanken<\/td>2,5%<\/td>0,0%<\/td><\/tr>
FED<\/td>4,5%<\/td>0.25%<\/td><\/tr>
ECB<\/td>2,5%<\/td>0,0%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Om vi kikar p\u00e5 r\u00e4nteterminerna (marknadens s\u00e4tt att prisa in sannolikheter f\u00f6r olika r\u00e4nteniv\u00e5er fr\u00e5n centralbankerna) s\u00e5 tror inte marknaden att centralbankerna kommer att kunna vara lika aggressiva som de sj\u00e4lva g\u00e4rna verkar vilja vara. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bilden nedan visar den mest sannolika r\u00e4ntan i procent vid respektive m\u00f6te f\u00f6r de olika centralbankerna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>
\"\"<\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/div>
Bilderna \u00e4r klickbara<\/figcaption><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Ikv\u00e4ll v\u00e4ntas FED komma med det senaste r\u00e4ntebeskedet, marknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig en h\u00f6jning om 25 punkter. Det blir intressant att f\u00f6lja hur FED v\u00e4ljer att agera fram\u00e5t, som det g\u00e5r att se i grafiken ovan v\u00e4ntas FED s\u00e4nka r\u00e4ntorna redan i slutet av detta \u00e5ret. M\u00e5nga FED-ledam\u00f6ter har varit ute och talat om r\u00e4ntor som ska ligga “p\u00e5 5% eller h\u00f6gre under en l\u00e5ng tid”, marknaden verkar inte tro p\u00e5 detta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Intressanta makroh\u00e5llpunkter under februari<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
N\u00e4r<\/strong><\/td>Vad<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
1-feb<\/td>USA: R\u00e4ntebesked FED<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Eurozonen: Inflationssiffror (prel)<\/td><\/tr>
2-feb<\/td>Eurozonen: R\u00e4ntebesked ECB<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Storbritannien: R\u00e4ntebesked Bank of England<\/td><\/tr>
3-feb<\/td>USA: Non-farm Payrolls <\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Tyskland: PMI<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Eurozonen: PMI<\/td><\/tr>
6-feb<\/td>Tyskland: Industriorder<\/td><\/tr>
9-feb<\/td>Sverige: R\u00e4ntebesked Riksbanken<\/td><\/tr>
10-feb<\/td>Danmark: Inflationssiffror<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Norge: Inflationssiffror<\/td><\/tr>
14-feb<\/td>Eurozonen: BNP (prel)<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: Inflationssiffror<\/td><\/tr>
15-feb<\/td>USA: F\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning detaljhandel, industriproduktion<\/td><\/tr>
20-feb<\/td>Sverige: Inflationssiffror<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Eurozonen: Konsumentf\u00f6rtroende<\/td><\/tr>
21-feb<\/td>Tyskland: PMI<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Eurozonen: PMI<\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>USA: PMI<\/td><\/tr>
24-feb<\/td>Tyskland: BNP<\/td><\/tr>
27-feb<\/td>Sverige: F\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning detaljhandel<\/td><\/tr>
27\/28-feb<\/td>Tyskland: Inflationssiffror<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Rapports\u00e4songen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Under februari m\u00e5nad s\u00e4tter rapports\u00e4songen ig\u00e5ng p\u00e5 allvar, hela 934 bolag v\u00e4ntas l\u00e4mna sina rapporter under m\u00e5naden. Med tanke p\u00e5 det ekonomiska l\u00e4get just nu kanske det hade f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntats ett par fler vinstvarningar vid detta laget, kan dock vara s\u00e5 att Q4orna inte \u00e4r s\u00e4rskilt p\u00e5verkade \u00e4n genom exempelvis uppluppna orders. Bolagens guidance f\u00f6r \u00e5ret blir viktiga minst sagt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Rapportestimat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5nga bolag sl\u00e4pper sina rapporter under februari m\u00e5nad, men vi kikar n\u00e4rmare p\u00e5 fem av dessa: Evolution, Nordea, AstraZeneca, ABB och Skanska. Nedan finner du estimat, resultat f\u00f6r f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende perioder, samt estimaten f\u00f6r hel\u00e5ret 2023 som kan anv\u00e4ndas f\u00f6r att j\u00e4mf\u00f6ra mot bolagens eventuella guidance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(bilderna \u00e4r klickbara)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>
\"\"<\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f6rutom h\u00e4r p\u00e5 bloggen, s\u00e5 hittar du mig p\u00e5 Twitter: www.twitter.com\/nordnetaxel<\/a> d\u00e4r jag l\u00f6pande l\u00e4gger ut liknande relevanta grejer under veckorna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vad skulle du vilja se f\u00f6r inneh\u00e5ll i dena m\u00e5natliga uppdatering? Kommentera g\u00e4rna nedan!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lycka till med din handel i februari!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inf\u00f6r februari m\u00e5nad har vi en b\u00f6rs som b\u00f6rjat \u00e5ret starkt. I skrivande stund \u00e4r OMXSPI upp knappt 8% f\u00f6r \u00e5ret, en uppg\u00e5ng om runt 20% fr\u00e5n l\u00e4gstanoteringen i slutet p\u00e5 september f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. Kikar vi p\u00e5 andra index s\u00e5 ser vi att tyska DAX b\u00f6jat \u00e5ret lite b\u00e4ttre och Nasdaq klart starkast. B\u00f6rsuppg\u00e5ngen kanske […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40154,"featured_media":74458,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4048],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-74309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nyheter-handelser"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/46854554-150x51.png","width":150,"height":51,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/46854554-150x51.png 150w, 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