Inflationen kan inte l\u00e4ngre anses vara \u00f6verg\u00e5ende, har den amerikanska centralbankschefen Jerome Powell nu slagit fast. S\u00e5 h\u00e4r kan du t\u00e4nka f\u00f6r att hitta sektorer som klarar inflation och h\u00f6gre r\u00e4nta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Det finns tv\u00e5 s\u00e4tt att de p\u00e5 den \u00f6kade smittspridningens konsekvenser f\u00f6r v\u00e4rldsekonomin och inflationen. Antingen leder \u00f6kade restriktioner och nedst\u00e4ngningar till h\u00e4mmad tillv\u00e4xt. Det skulle kunna d\u00e4mpa inflationen. Eller s\u00e5 f\u00f6rl\u00e4ngs problemen med flaskhalsar och komponentbrist p\u00e5 grund av \u00f6kade nedst\u00e4ngningar, vilket \u00e4r inflationsdrivande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Den amerikanska centralbanken verkar tro p\u00e5 det senare scenariot. Fed gjorde en tydlig omsv\u00e4ngning n\u00e4r man slog fast att man inte ska anv\u00e4nda ordet \u201dtransitory\u201d om inflationen l\u00e4ngre. Den kommer att h\u00e5lla i sig l\u00e4ngre \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat, tror man, vilket g\u00f6r det angel\u00e4get att g\u00e5 mot minskade stimulanser. \u00c5 andra sidan har den \u00f6kade smittspridningen och omikron-utbrottet faktiskt gjort att amerikanska l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ntor fallit den senaste tiden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Det kan i vilket fall vara v\u00e4rt att h\u00e5lla koll p\u00e5 vilka sektorer och regioner som kan gynnas respektive missgynnas av ett scenario med h\u00f6gre inflation och h\u00f6gre r\u00e4ntor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tillv\u00e4xt- och f\u00f6rhoppningsbolag tillh\u00f6r i teorin en sektor som missgynnas av stigande r\u00e4ntor, \u00e5tminstone de som inte tj\u00e4nar pengar \u00e4n. Detta eftersom de vinster de antas g\u00f6ra i framtiden kommer att v\u00e4rderas l\u00e4gre med en h\u00f6gre r\u00e4nta i v\u00e4rderingsmodellen. De h\u00f6ga v\u00e4rderingarna, \u201df\u00f6rhoppningsv\u00e4rderingar\u201d, blir d\u00e4rmed sv\u00e5rare att r\u00e4kna hem. D\u00e4rmed blir de s\u00e5rbara n\u00e4r inflationsoron sl\u00e5r till och risken f\u00f6r stigande r\u00e4ntor blir allt mer n\u00e4rvarande, vilket vi sett prov p\u00e5 under 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Men alla tillv\u00e4xtbolag m\u00e5ste inte f\u00e5 det tufft. Ist\u00e4llet g\u00e4ller det att hitta bolag som redan idag har stabila int\u00e4kter och g\u00e4rna en stark marknadsposition. Techj\u00e4ttar som Apple och Microsoft kan d\u00e4rmed klara sig bra trots stigande r\u00e4ntor. Som investerare kan det bli allt viktigare att skilja mellan bolag som idag \u00e4r helt ol\u00f6nsamma bolag och de som idag redan \u00e4r l\u00f6nsamma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
R\u00e5varor har stigit kraftigt vilket tillverkare m\u00e5ste kompensera sig f\u00f6r. Traditionellt brukar prish\u00f6jningar f\u00e5 st\u00f6rre acceptans gentemot andra f\u00f6retag i tillverkningskedjan. Men g\u00e5r pris\u00f6kningen direkt till konsumenterna kan det bli sv\u00e5rare, s\u00e4rskilt om det handlar om en konkurrensutsatt marknad. Den typen av bolag kan bli f\u00f6rlorare p\u00e5 ett scenario med ih\u00e5llande inflation. Ett exempel p\u00e5 ett tillverkningsbolag som s\u00e4ljer direkt till konsumenter \u00e4r Electrolux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
H\u00f6gbel\u00e5nade fastighetsbolag missgynnas i teorin av stigande r\u00e4ntor eftersom finansieringen blir dyrare. \u00c5 andra sidan \u00e4r ju fastigheter i sig ett inflationsskydd, s\u00e5 bolag som direkt\u00e4ger fastighetsbolag gynnas ur det perspektivet. D\u00e4rf\u00f6r kan det vara klokt att skilja mellan bolag som bygger \u2013 som beh\u00f6ver betala mer f\u00f6r byggmaterial som dessutom kan vara sv\u00e5rt att f\u00e5 tag i \u2013 och bolag som \u00e4ger. Som privatperson kan man ha med sig att h\u00f6gt \u00e4gande i den egna bostaden och kanske i sommarstugan \u00e4r ett bra inflationsskydd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bankernas intj\u00e4ningsf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga \u00f6kar med stigande r\u00e4ntor. Bank \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r en sektor som allt annat lika gynnas i den milj\u00f6 vi av m\u00e5nga f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas hamna i. Storbankerna har g\u00e5tt urstarkt p\u00e5 b\u00f6rsen i \u00e5r, s\u00e5 fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r f\u00f6rst\u00e5s om detta tagits ut i f\u00f6rskott. Men bankerna har ytterligare ett ess i rock\u00e4rmen i en milj\u00f6 med stigande inflation; utdelningarna. Nu \u00e4r utdelningarna tillbaka p\u00e5 de niv\u00e5er d\u00e4r bankerna sj\u00e4lva vill ha dem, och utdelningar kan ju i sig kompensera f\u00f6r minskad k\u00f6pkraft vid inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tillverkningsbolag och r\u00e5varurelaterade bolag som har m\u00f6jlighet att h\u00f6ja priserna till sina kunder f\u00f6r att kompensera sig kan d\u00e4remot vara vinnare. Det \u00e4r exempelvis ofta bolag med en unik eller \u00e5tminstone stark position inom sitt segment, eller som har kunder som inte \u00e4r s\u00e5 prisk\u00e4nsliga, som har s\u00e5 kallad \u201dpricing power\u201d \u2013 m\u00f6jligheten att enkelt h\u00f6ja priset. Det kan dock vara v\u00e4rt att p\u00e5peka att prish\u00f6jningar kan ske med viss f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jning. Exempel p\u00e5 bolag som ofta anses ha god pricing power \u00e4r Atlas Copco, Alfa Laval och Assa Abloy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I teorin \u00e4r cykliska och konjunkturk\u00e4nsliga bolag \u201dvinnare\u201d p\u00e5 h\u00f6g inflation. Fast snarare handlar det om att bolagen \u00e4r vinnare p\u00e5 en god konjunktur, vilken ofta kommer tillsammans med stigande inflation. Denna g\u00e5ng vet vi dock att inflationen ocks\u00e5 eldas p\u00e5 av andra faktorer \u00e4n tillv\u00e4xt, som skenande energipriser och flaskhalsar. \u00c5 andra sidan \u00e4r den underliggande tillv\u00e4xten i m\u00e5nga delar av v\u00e4rlden god.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vi har haft ett r\u00e5varurally under h\u00f6sten, vilket beror p\u00e5 att inflation och stigande priser p\u00e5 r\u00e5varor ofta samspelar. Olja och naturgas har stigit kraftigt, liksom basmetaller som st\u00e5l, koppar och aluminium. Det g\u00e5r ocks\u00e5 att f\u00e5 exponering via r\u00e5varufonder eller r\u00e5varu-ETF:er, men v\u00e4rt att ha i \u00e5tanke \u00e4r allts\u00e5 att dessa redan g\u00e5tt v\u00e4ldigt bra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Men kom ih\u00e5g att i grunden \u00e4r det allra viktigaste f\u00f6r att skydda portf\u00f6ljen riskspridning. Inte bara mellan m\u00e5nga aktier, utan mellan m\u00e5nga olika typer av sektorer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hur resonerar du kring inflationen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\/Frida<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Inflationen kan inte l\u00e4ngre anses vara \u00f6verg\u00e5ende, har den amerikanska centralbankschefen Jerome Powell nu slagit fast. S\u00e5 h\u00e4r kan du t\u00e4nka f\u00f6r att hitta sektorer som klarar inflation och h\u00f6gre r\u00e4nta. Det finns tv\u00e5 s\u00e4tt att de p\u00e5 den \u00f6kade smittspridningens konsekvenser f\u00f6r v\u00e4rldsekonomin och inflationen. Antingen leder \u00f6kade restriktioner och nedst\u00e4ngningar till h\u00e4mmad tillv\u00e4xt. 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